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Bernie Sanders
Related: About this forum’Tis but a flesh wound!
https://johnlaurits.com/2016/05/07/the-after-math-guam/Guam:
|The After-MATH|
Greetings, friends as most of you have probably heard, weve suffered a narrow loss in Guam and Clinton has picked up one more pledged delegate than us. Take heart! And worry yourselves not, my friends tis but a flesh wound! As the polls are strongly foreshadowing, May 10th should be a good day for us, as well as May 17th, when Oregon will weigh in. But, before I get into the latest numbers from West Virginia, Oregon, and Kentucky, lets take a quick look at how the math is evolving, shall we?
When I last wrote to you, just after the glorious victory in Indiana (thanks Indiana!), our original target (64.4%) had shifted slightly to 65.5% and the pledged delegate count looked like this:
Clinton | 1,703 pledged delegates
Sanders | 1,415 pledged delegates
Remaining Delegates: 933
In Guam, Clinton grabbed 4 delegates and weve grabbed 3 because the net delegate gain was but one, the math shifts only slightly. Adding the delegates that weve gained to our total and subtracting Guams pledged delegates from the remaining ones, we end up with:
Clinton | 1,707 pledged delegates
Sanders | 1,418 pledged delegates
Remaining Delegates: 926
Sanders now needs 608 more pledged delegates to reach 2,026 because:
2,026 1,418 = 608
And, with 926 delegates remaining to be won, hell now need to win 65.6% (instead of 65.5%) of the remaining contests because:
608 ÷ 926 = .656
This difference of 0.1% is slight but we will still have to make it up in the races to come. Therefore, now, more than ever, it is important to donate whatever change you all still have in your pockets (or your couch cushions or the cupholders in your cars) to the Sanders campaign Clintons corporate thugs helped her to outspend us in Guam and we mustnt allow that to happen in places like California, where it will really matter. Now, lets move on to some very encouraging-looking numbers
What the Polls are Saying
There are three contests left in May:
May 10th
WV 29 pledged delegates, Sanders polls: +4-8%
May 17th
KT 55 pledged delegates, Sanders polls: no data
OR 61 pledged delegates, Sanders polls: no data*
Aside from in Kentucky, where there is strangely little data, Sanders is in a position to win the remaining states that vote in May but, regardless of the polls, this is the time for us all to get on the phones! Remember: phonebanking and donations are how we will be increasing our margins those who are #StillSanders should be #StillDonating! I cannot stress that point enough.
In West Virginia, all polls have us leading PPP has us up +8%, Repass Research has us +4%, and FiveThirtyEights polls-based forecast gives us a 78% chance of winning there! Those are good chances lets run with that and make the gap bigger! While there is very little polling data for Oregon, we do know that a record-breaking number of independent voters have switched their registrations to vote in the Oregon democratic primaries which is very, very good for us. The only recent poll that I can find in Oregon is isidewith.coms online poll (though its important to note that online polls can be prone to coverage errors), which has Sanders polling in Oregon at 68% and Clinton at 32%.
Kentucky seems to be something more of a wild card aside from a poll in June of last year, Ive only been able to find one Public Policy poll, which was conducted in early March and had Clinton up +5%. It could be anyones game, really I wish that I could offer you more numbers from the Bluegrass State but there simply doesnt seem to be any (if any of you have information that I dont, please dont hesitate to email me or comment below).
That should do it for the Guam After-Math Ill write to you all again after West Virginia on the 10th. In the meantime, keep your math-goggles on and watch out for dishonest reporting and outright lies, like this garbage from the New York Times remember, the Clinton-machine and her corporate media lackeys will stop at nothing to destroy your hope with misinformation! But be at ease and, again, take heart because they are no match for you not while we stand in solidarity and not when you are armed with knowledge, determination, and humor (and, perhaps, a calculator youll look more intimidating that way).
In solidarity,
John Laurits #SeeYouInPhilly
Weve gained a delegate, according to the Green Papers, from Washington
If you find any particularly horrendous lies, please send them to me so that I can write an article to expose the jerks.
Please keep in mind John has not yet incorporated the (49?) new delegates he was awarded today from Washington!
Keep Berning ... t'aint over friends!
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’Tis but a flesh wound! (Original Post)
ebayfool
May 2016
OP
Silver_Witch
(1,820 posts)1. Thank you ebayfool for the most wonderful update
Still sending money and good vibes. Wish I could phone bank but from California I am working all the hours that phone banking pays back east! Wait till they move this way and I will be knocking on doors here!
I think we can do it!!!
senz
(11,945 posts)2. Thanks, ebayfool
Yesterday I linked to Laurits' earlier one in a GD-P comment and received a nasty Bernie putdown video in return from an extremely abusive Hill supporter. Some people are truly toxic.
I love these and thank you for posting them!
Hillary supporters are really toxic.
I think it has to do with David Brock. The nastiest, most toxic human on the planet.