Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Omaha Steve

(99,711 posts)
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 11:22 AM Aug 2015

Bernie group: The Hill: 3 reasons Bernie Sanders is now the Democratic front-runner 8-25-15


http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/251860-3-reasons-bernie-sanders-is-now-the-democratic-front

August 25, 2015, 07:30 am

By H.A. Goodman, contributor

In 2008, Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination to then-Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). In 2015, another senator is giving the Clinton campaign a headache; however, this election cycle has an additional cast of characters that normally isn't a part of any presidential rivalry. Because of a federal judge, the FBI and Justice Department investigations, and an energized base of progressive voters throughout the nation voting for Sanders, it's evident Clinton has lost her status as the leading presidential candidate for Democrats. Although many Democrats still won't admit the obvious, below are three reasons why Sanders has become the new Democratic front-runner in 2016.

1. Within a surprisingly short time period, increased name recognition and an energized base of Democratic voters have allowed Sanders to compete and even surpass Clinton in various polls.

Sanders formally announced his run for the presidency on May 26, 2015. Since then, Clinton's lead in nationwide polls has dwindled. This paradigm shift has been fueled primarily because of scandals, Clinton's inability to answer questions in a forthright manner, and the energy exhibited by Sanders's supporters. Furthermore, CNN cites a recent Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll that reports Sanders ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire. Even when acknowledging that Clinton still leads Sanders in various other polls, CNN writes that "polling has also shown Clinton's vulnerabilities as voters question her honesty and trustworthiness." Echoing CNN, Quinnipiac University issued a report in July titled "Clinton In Trouble In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds." This Quinnipiac poll explains that Sanders now performs as well, or even better than Clinton, in various scenarios:

In several matchups in Iowa and Colorado, another Democratic contender, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, runs as well as, or better than Clinton against Rubio, Bush and Walker. ...

Clinton gets markedly negative favorability ratings in each state, 35-56 percent in Colorado, 33-56 percent in Iowa and 41-50 percent in Virginia.

'Hillary Clinton's numbers have dropped among voters in the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. She has lost ground in the horserace and on key questions about her honesty and leadership,' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

FULL story at link.

?itok=RPhXUM8u

Getty Images
7 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
3. The author puts way too much emphasis on the email controversy
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 12:57 PM
Aug 2015

In light of Clinton's advantages, notably money and endorsements, I'd still have to consider her the favorite for the nomination. If Bernie does win it, it will be because millions of Democrats decide that we don't have to settle for the same old same old, and that a better world is possible.

I don't see the email thing as having much resonance with the general public (and still less with the Democratic primary electorate). "I'm the candidate who's genuinely standing up for the 99%" has legs. "I'm the candidate who never put government emails on a private server" is not going to decide the Presidency.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
4. Yes, something that could lead to an indictment during the campaign isn't important at all.
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:28 PM
Aug 2015

Disclaimer: I do not expect her to be actually indicted. Making a criminal case out of what we know so far is basically impossible. If she was "random government peon #26347" and still working for the government, she'd probably lose her clearance and get fired, not prosecuted.

The main danger in the primary comes from it stabs right in the middle of her biggest vulnerability. She does not poll well on being trustworthy, and even if everything on the server turns out to be perfectly legal, its existence and her handling of the case so far are very bad for appearing trustworthy.

The main danger in the general election is it's absolutely fantastic for a 30-second ad. Ominous music. Unflattering pictures of Clinton frowning. Voice over says something about "She gave away our secrets" while a manila envelop with a big red "SECRET" stamped on it falls into dark-skin hands. Then some videos of ISIS and "How can we trust her?". This message paid for by the OMG THEY'RE COMING TO KILL US ALL SuperPAC.

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
6. An actual indictment would be a game changer, but you and I agree that's unlikely.
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 06:14 PM
Aug 2015

If I were the Sanders strategy team, my attitude would be that it would be great if she were indicted or blew her stack and punched out a nun, but I wouldn't be counting on anything like that happening.

roguevalley

(40,656 posts)
5. she shot her own foot. You don't drag out bullshit. She should have put the stuff out there
Tue Aug 25, 2015, 01:33 PM
Aug 2015

when asked and not made it a three month issue. She is her own worst enemy.

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Bernie Sanders»Bernie group: The Hill: 3...