Hillary is ahead in the polls, true since day #1. But for pete's sake look at these numbers.

Hillary is ahead in the polls, true since day #1. But for pete's sake look at these numbers.
By Angela Marx
Sunday Nov 22, 2015 6:49 PM EST



Like most weekends here, it’s a cavalcade of Go! Bernie diaries.

Some data, a lot of hope and guaranteed sniping by SOME of the Hillary supporters who would like Sanders to just give up already. They are #ReadyforHillary to start the big show.

But something stands in the way of that desire.

It’s a numbers thing.

What all Sanders supporters must keep in mind, is that those numbers which seem to be so persuasive to the #Ready4Hillary camp aren’t static. Yes, her numbers continue to lead. But the history of those numbers since they started polling on the race a year ago?

Hillary has had a smallish, but continued downward trend, with what could be either a bounce up since Sept 24th, or a blip upwards (but we won’t know which, until at least a couple more polls take place). But still definitely lower than last year at this time.

Sanders, on the other hand, his direction has been upwards since last year this time. Likewise for O’Malley, even though his margins are tiny (even compared only to Sanders and not Clinton).

Statistics for the table and graph are taken from the Huffington Post Polling for the Democratic Primary.
(Sorry - there is no way to put up a decent graph. Click the link at the bottom to be able to read it better at the original source.)

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY POLLING
OCT 2014 - NOV 2015 (LATEST IN each MONTH listed)

MONTH Clinton Sanders O’Malley
OCT 12 2014 62.7% 2.7% 1.0%
NOV 23 2014 62.2% 3.1% 0.8%
DEC 9 2014 61.7% 3.3% 0.8%
JAN 27 2015 60.5% 4.1% 1.00%
FEB 23 2015 60.0% 4.7% 1.2%
MARCH 31 2015 61.4% 6.5% 1.6%
APRIL 27 2015 61.6% 8.7% 1.6%
MAY 31 2015 59.7% 12.3% 1.5%
JUNE 29 2015 58.4% 15.9% 1.1%
JULY 30 2015 54.9% 18.0% 1.5%
AUG 30 2015 47.0% 23.4% 1.4%
SEPT 30 2015 44.4% 25.0% 1.1%
OCT 29 2015 53.5% 29.5% 2.0%
NOV 19 2015 55.2% 31.1% 3.0%


NAME START % END % + OR -
CLINTON 62.7 55.2 - 7.5%
SANDERS 2.7 31.1 + 28.4
O’MALLEY 1.0 3.0 + 2.0

Those numbers, even though Sanders has made up a lot of ground, still show Hillary Clinton with a pretty commanding double digit lead, right? They also show O’Malley’s numbers so low that I wonder why he hasn’t dropped out yet...

But the trending pattern is quite easy to see in the graph below, showing the past year’s polling results.

What they show is a trend which I think Sanders supporters see, but Clinton supporters do not.



That Clinton’s numbers are fairly static, but Sanders are dynamic and growing more as time goes by.

Which makes the only reasonable question: Can Sanders put himself in striking distance in enough states by Super Tuesday?

So far as I can see the answer is maybe, but that’s a maybe dependent upon Sanders winning at least one and more likely both New Hampshire and Iowa — which could give him the boost to win South Carolina and/or Nevada.

And so long as that word is maybe and not NO, Bernie still has my primary vote.

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/11/22/1453266/-Hillary-is-ahead-in-the-polls-true-since-day-1-But-for-pete-s-sake-look-at-these-numbers