Care 2: How Bernie Sanders Will Win the Democratic Nomination

http://www.care2.com/causes/how-bernie-sanders-will-win-the-democratic-nomination.html


By: Robin MartyDecember 30, 2015

To a large portion of the political punditry, the 2016 Democratic nomination was settled the moment that former Secretary of State, former New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton began hinting that she was preparing for a presidential run. When Vermont Senator and self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders announced his entry, he was at worst seen as a distraction and at best seen as a tool merely for giving Clinton a nudge further to the left, to remind her that the progressives in the party want a champion, not another moderate, as their candidate.

However, the path to Sanders pulling off one of the biggest political upsets ever has always been an uphill one, full of twists and roadblocks. Now, however, what looked like an impossibility could actually be a scenario that Sanders and his team may pull off.

On a national level, little has changed in the battle of Clinton versus Sanders. A Monmouth University poll released on December 16 shows Clinton trouncing Sanders by 33 points, no change since the last poll, conducted in October. She has the support of nearly 60 percent of the respondents, a nearly two to one lead. Still, that’s a national poll, and the nomination is won state by state. For Clinton, that means the first two contests – Iowa and New Hampshire, could change the momentum for her campaign completely depending on their results.

Iowa, at this point, is still primarily Clinton’s to lose. As of mid-December, she is leading by 11 points according to Public Policy Polling, and has a massive advantage with women voters. If Sanders can find a way to address this gender gap, he could manage to navigate into a position to win Iowa and surprise everyone. Because Iowa is a caucus state rather than a primary, and does not select candidates by popular vote, a strong ground game at the caucuses and positioning the right people into each location to help organize the delegate electing will have far more impact on the final result than any campaign spending prior to the contest itself.

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