Democratic Primaries

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts) Sat May 4, 2019, 10:59 AM May 2019

Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee? Here's how the odds have changed over the last month

Now that every major candidate appears to have entered the 2020 Democratic primary, it’s a good time to look at the likelihood each contender has to win the party’s nomination according to bookmakers. Below are the odds each candidate had on April 1, 2019, along with the most current odds, according to the oddsmakers at Bovada.

For those unaccustomed to how gambling futures work, the number next to each candidate’s name indicates how much money a bettor would win if he/she wagered $100. For example, according to the odds at Bovada, one of the most popular online gambling sites for U.S. players, a winning $100 bet on Kamala Harris today would net a $500 profit (plus your original $100 back). You can also plug the odds into a probability calculator for a more conventional percentage breakdown.

It’s important to note that these odds are fluid and can change based on a variety of factors. While factors like polling are important, there is also an element of forecasting included. Because actual voting is so far away, things like fundraising and name recognition may also play a role. Here are the notable changes in the odds over the past month.

(snip)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-will-be-the-2020-democratic-nominee-heres-how-the-odds-have-changed-over-the-last-month-2019-05-03

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

53 replies

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Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee? Here's how the odds have changed over the last month (Original Post) Uncle Joe May 2019 OP

The Question Is DownriverDem May 2019 #1

Biden-Harris Ticket uawchild May 2019 #4

Why? left-of-center2012 May 2019 #2

They were all mentioned at one time and Uncle Joe May 2019 #5

yep Go Vols May 2019 #28

Post removed Post removed May 2019 #3

Time will tell uawchild May 2019 #6

Sorry you were not consoled. NYMinute May 2019 #7

Post removed Post removed May 2019 #8

... NYMinute May 2019 #12

Post removed Post removed May 2019 #14

... Uncle Joe May 2019 #15

Actually, Sanders has filed papers in Vermont to run as an independent NYMinute May 2019 #16

1. Bernie wins the nomination and G.E. governing as a Democratic President. Uncle Joe May 2019 #18

How is the Democratic Party damaged? Vermont loses the chance to have a Democratic Senator..... George II May 2019 #23

Bernie defeated a Republican for the house seat Uncle Joe May 2019 #24

You asked, I answered. Because of the way he's been manipulating the Democratic primary..... George II May 2019 #25

If they have been "deprived" why do they keep reelecting him usually by large margins? Uncle Joe May 2019 #29

In the past he has "committed" to be the Democratic candidate for Senator or Representative..... George II May 2019 #30

Your final sentence may be correct but if it isn't and Bernie does win. Uncle Joe May 2019 #32

The history. Ninsianna May 2019 #34

Come closer. I have a secret to tell you Politicub May 2019 #27

I see Oprah is up +8,000 ucrdem May 2019 #9

lol nt NYMinute May 2019 #10

Andrew Yang is given a better chance than Senator Warren? muriel_volestrangler May 2019 #11

Perhaps Yang's basic income message is taking root? n/t Uncle Joe May 2019 #13

Perhaps not: muriel_volestrangler May 2019 #21

Is or has taken root among the bettors. Uncle Joe May 2019 #22

Exactly still_one May 2019 #26

This is meaningless-- these are parimutuel bets, meaning the bets are in a pool and... TreasonousBastard May 2019 #17

How can you tell how much has been bet so far? n/t Uncle Joe May 2019 #19

You can't unless they tell you. TreasonousBastard May 2019 #20

The odds are proportional based on the amount wagered on each, after a certain % is taken out.... George II May 2019 #33

Why anyone would place bets on Michelle, Hillary, or Oprah is beyond me Prosper May 2019 #31

One thing I learned about polls in 2016, is that they're bullshit. BeckyDem May 2019 #35

except the LA Times n/t floppyboo May 2019 #37

lol +1 BeckyDem May 2019 #38

Been some movement since this article. WeekiWater May 2019 #36

Been some more movement at the top. WeekiWater May 2019 #39

More movement! WeekiWater May 2019 #40

Movement continues. Seems to be reflecting the polls. WeekiWater May 2019 #41

What link are you getting your numbers from? Uncle Joe May 2019 #42

Same one you used in your op. WeekiWater May 2019 #43

Supplying the actual link would be nice, Uncle Joe May 2019 #44

Yes, odds change regularly and your article is now older. It tells you where the odds come from. WeekiWater May 2019 #45

It would still be nice to supply the actual link to your numbers. Uncle Joe May 2019 #46

Those aren't primary odds nor are they the ones used in your op. WeekiWater May 2019 #47

Lol, saw the name, knew it must be Sanders puffery. Hortensis May 2019 #48

The odds cited in the op are turning the same direction as the polls. WeekiWater May 2019 #49

Yep; as of today: LongtimeAZDem May 2019 #50

:) No surprise. This was just silly. Hortensis May 2019 #51

Three of them aren't even running. The Velveteen Ocelot May 2019 #52

No. Their money is in place. WeekiWater May 2019 #53

DownriverDem

(6,229 posts)

1. The Question Is

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:08 AM

May 2019

who can beat trump? Biden/Harris is the ticket we need.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

uawchild

(2,208 posts)

4. Biden-Harris Ticket

Reply to DownriverDem (Reply #1)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:19 AM

May 2019

Honestly, it's the only ticket I can see coming out of the primaries where the nominee picks one of the other candidates as their running mate.

It's balanced ethnically.

It's balanced in terms of age in that the VP is young enough to feel they have a shot at the presidency themselves after serving as VP.

It's balanced in terms of gender, Harris would be the first women on a winning presidential ticket.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts)

2. Why?

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:11 AM

May 2019

Why did they include Hillary, Michelle, and Oprah?

Kind of distracts from the seriousness of the betting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

5. They were all mentioned at one time and

Reply to left-of-center2012 (Reply #2)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:22 AM

May 2019

if people are willing to bet money on them, then I suppose the bookies are willing to take it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Go Vols

(5,902 posts)

28. yep

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #5)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:09 PM

May 2019

lines were up on 2020 election as soon as 2016 was over and people added since..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Response to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Post removed

uawchild

(2,208 posts)

6. Time will tell

Reply to Post removed (Reply #3)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:22 AM

May 2019

These betting pools are sometimes leading indicators of deeper trends.

Hey, I am really silly. believe our nominee will actually need Sander's supporters to win in 2020.

Pretty silly, huh?

I wonder what good comes from constantly poking at them?

What does the "cool kids" lunch table think?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)

7. Sorry you were not consoled.

Reply to uawchild (Reply #6)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:25 AM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to NYMinute (Reply #7)

Post removed

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)

12. ...

Reply to Post removed (Reply #8)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:52 AM

May 2019

Last edited Sat May 4, 2019, 08:03 PM - Edit history (1)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to NYMinute (Reply #12)

Post removed

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

15. ...

Reply to Post removed (Reply #14)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:10 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)

16. Actually, Sanders has filed papers in Vermont to run as an independent

Reply to Post removed (Reply #14)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:20 PM

May 2019

So it is Sanders himself who has proven that he is in the Democratic party temporarily to take advantage of the resources.

I have personally never called Sanders fake. Someone else may have and you should take it up with them.

Whilst you may not have liked my posts because they are sarcastic and sardonic towards candidates who are not my top choice, that is the nature of the beast.

If you want to debate, debate. Don't call me names like "Trump supporter."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

18. 1. Bernie wins the nomination and G.E. governing as a Democratic President.

Reply to NYMinute (Reply #16)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:45 PM

May 2019

2. Bernie loses the nomination and per his signed pledge (first candidate to do so) supports the Democratic Nominee regardless of who it is.

3. Bernie loses the nomination or G.E. runs as an Independent Senator from Vermont winning that contest and continues as he has for decades to caucus with Democrats in the Congress.

4. Bernie loses the nomination or G. E. and goes on to lose his Independent Senate run in Vermont..

In any which scenario, how is the Democratic Party damaged?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

23. How is the Democratic Party damaged? Vermont loses the chance to have a Democratic Senator.....

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #18)

Sat May 4, 2019, 02:37 PM

May 2019

What he'll do, as he's done a number of times in the past, is enter the Vermont Senatorial Primary (or the House primary years ago) as a Democrat, then the day after the primary he'll decline the nomination and run as an Independent.

Then, not being a Democratic Senator, he feels he's free to criticize the Democratic Party, again as he's done in the past.

As a Democrat, doesn't that bother you?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

24. Bernie defeated a Republican for the house seat

Reply to George II (Reply #23)

Sat May 4, 2019, 02:59 PM

May 2019

(snip)

In 1988, incumbent Republican Congressman Jim Jeffords decided to run for the U.S. Senate, vacating the House seat representing Vermont's at-large congressional district. Former Lieutenant Governor Peter P. Smith (R) won the House election with a plurality, securing 41% of the vote. Sanders, who ran as an independent, placed second with 38% of the vote, while Democratic State Representative Paul N. Poirier placed third with 19% of the vote.[79] Two years later, Sanders ran for the seat again and defeated the incumbent Smith by a margin of 56% to 39%.[80]

Sanders was the first independent elected to the U.S. House of Representatives since Frazier Reams's election to represent Ohio 40 years earlier.[78] He served as a representative for 16 years, winning reelection by large margins except during the 1994 Republican Revolution, when he won by 3%, with 50% of the vote.[81]

During his first year in the House, Sanders often alienated allies and colleagues with his criticism of both political parties as working primarily on behalf of the wealthy. In 1991, Sanders co-founded the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a group of mostly liberal Democrats that Sanders chaired for its first eight years,[15] while still refusing to join the Democratic Party or caucus.[82]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Sanders

The Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC) is a caucus within the Democratic congressional caucus in the United States Congress.[6] The CPC is a left-leaning organization that works to advance progressive and liberal issues and positions and represents the progressive faction of the Democratic Party.[7][8] It was founded in 1991 and has grown steadily since then.

Entering the 116th United States Congress, the CPC has 98 members, making it the second largest caucus within the Democratic Party and the third largest caucus in Congress. The CPC is currently co-chaired by U.S. Representatives Mark Pocan (D-WI) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA).

(snip)

The CPC was established in 1991 by six members of the United States House of Representatives, namely U.S. Representatives Ron Dellums (D-CA), Lane Evans (D-IL), Thomas Andrews (D-ME), Peter DeFazio (D-OR), Maxine Waters (D-CA) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Additional House Members joined soon thereafter, including Major Owens (D-NY), Nydia Velázquez (D-NY), David Bonior (D-MI), Bob Filner (D-CA), Barney Frank (D-MA), Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), Jim McDermott (D-WA), Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Patsy Mink (D-HI), George Miller (D-CA), Pete Stark (D-CA), John Olver (D-MA), Lynn Woolsey (D-CA) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). Sanders was the convener and first CPC Chairman. Bill Goold served as Staff Coordinator for the Progressive Caucus in its early years until 1998.

The founding CPC members were concerned about the economic hardship imposed by the deepening recession and the growing inequality brought about by the timidity of the Democratic Party response in the early 1990s. On January 3, 1995 at a standing room only news conference on Capitol Hill, they were the first group inside Congress to chart a detailed, comprehensive legislative alternative to U.S. Speaker Newt Gingrich and the Republican Contract with America, which they termed "the most regressive tax proposals and reactionary social legislation the Congress had before it in 70 years". The CPC's ambitious agenda was framed as "The Progressive Promise: Fairness".

(snip)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Progressive_Caucus

If Bernie damaged the Democratic Party so much by running as an Independent and criticizing both parties why was he chosen to be the Congressional Progressive Caucus' (second largest caucus in the Democratic Party) first chair for the first 8 years of its' existence?

I believe no party is above constructive criticism, the Republican Party has marched in lockstep for decades and they ended up with Trump, bubbles can be self-destructive no matter how comfortable they feel.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

25. You asked, I answered. Because of the way he's been manipulating the Democratic primary.....

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #24)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:03 PM

May 2019

....in Vermont for years, the Democratic Party and the people of Vermont have been deprived of a Democratic Congressman and now a Senator.

What's the point of entering a primary as a Democrat and then declining to run in the General Election as a Democrat? You don't think that's misleading the voters of Vermont?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

29. If they have been "deprived" why do they keep reelecting him usually by large margins?

Reply to George II (Reply #25)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:11 PM

May 2019

If Bernie wins the nomination, he is committed to running in the G.E. as a Democratic Presidential candidate, if he wins the G.E. Sanders will govern as a Democratic President.

There is no question about either case.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

30. In the past he has "committed" to be the Democratic candidate for Senator or Representative.....

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #29)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:29 PM

May 2019

.....when he entered the Vermont primaries, only to go back on his commitment the day after each primary.

But no worries, he won't have to fulfill his commitment next summer and fall. It will be a moot point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

32. Your final sentence may be correct but if it isn't and Bernie does win.

Reply to George II (Reply #30)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:57 PM

May 2019

The 46th President of the United States Democrat Bernie Sanders! without a doubt and he will govern that way.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Ninsianna

(1,349 posts)

34. The history.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #18)

Mon May 6, 2019, 10:51 AM

May 2019

The fact that pledges are not honored.

The last 4 years of behavior.

That's where the damage fears gone from. Empirical evidence.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Politicub

(12,165 posts)

27. Come closer. I have a secret to tell you

Reply to uawchild (Reply #6)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:08 PM

May 2019

BOTH CAMPS DO IT AND BOTH FEEL MORE PERSECUTED AND TARGETED THAN THE OTHER.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)

9. I see Oprah is up +8,000

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:31 AM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

NYMinute

(3,256 posts)

10. lol nt

Reply to ucrdem (Reply #9)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:36 AM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

muriel_volestrangler

(101,322 posts)

11. Andrew Yang is given a better chance than Senator Warren?

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat May 4, 2019, 11:42 AM

May 2019

This is not a serious assessment of odds. Though I can see why he was at +900 on April 1st. Because that was April Fools Day.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

13. Perhaps Yang's basic income message is taking root? n/t

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #11)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:02 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

muriel_volestrangler

(101,322 posts)

21. Perhaps not:

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #13)

Sat May 4, 2019, 01:35 PM

May 2019

Yang poll average: 0.8%
compared with Warren 8.0%, Sanders 16.4% and Biden 36.8%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Yang is really in the "too small to measure" range.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

22. Is or has taken root among the bettors.

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #21)

Sat May 4, 2019, 01:41 PM

May 2019

They may believe with time, that message will resonate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

still_one

(92,250 posts)

26. Exactly

Reply to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #11)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:05 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TreasonousBastard

(43,049 posts)

17. This is meaningless-- these are parimutuel bets, meaning the bets are in a pool and...

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:44 PM

May 2019

the odds and payouts come from the amounts actually bet. Since not much has been bet so far, many of the odds are simply speculation.

Apparently, a fair amount has been bet so far on Biden and Bernie, which would be expected. Why anyone would place bets on Michelle, Hillary, or Oprah is beyond me, but perhaps someone's just hedging that their refusals to run aren't real.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

19. How can you tell how much has been bet so far? n/t

Reply to TreasonousBastard (Reply #17)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:52 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

TreasonousBastard

(43,049 posts)

20. You can't unless they tell you.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #19)

Sat May 4, 2019, 12:55 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

33. The odds are proportional based on the amount wagered on each, after a certain % is taken out....

Reply to TreasonousBastard (Reply #20)

Sun May 5, 2019, 04:12 PM

May 2019

....for the bookmaker's profit.

As the amounts bet on each shift, the odds will be adjusted accordingly. For example, if more is bet on Biden, his odds will go down and the odds on many of the others will go up.

The nice thing about betting through a bookmaker (I'd never do it) is that most of them honor the odds at the time one makes the bet, not the final odds before the election/game/race. But I think Bovada pays off the final odds regardless of when the bet was made.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Prosper

(761 posts)

31. Why anyone would place bets on Michelle, Hillary, or Oprah is beyond me

Reply to TreasonousBastard (Reply #17)

Sat May 4, 2019, 03:33 PM

May 2019

Me too, but those bettors paid for the Las Vegas Strip and all the other casinos.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BeckyDem

(8,361 posts)

35. One thing I learned about polls in 2016, is that they're bullshit.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Mon May 6, 2019, 11:00 AM

May 2019

Trump was suppose to lose across the board.

Following what policies voters support gives a better forecast of what people want.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

floppyboo

(2,461 posts)

37. except the LA Times n/t

Reply to BeckyDem (Reply #35)

Mon May 6, 2019, 01:27 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BeckyDem

(8,361 posts)

38. lol +1

Reply to floppyboo (Reply #37)

Mon May 6, 2019, 01:52 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

36. Been some movement since this article.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Mon May 6, 2019, 11:55 AM

May 2019

Biden +275
Sanders +300

From the same source used in the article. Bovada.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

39. Been some more movement at the top.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Wed May 8, 2019, 10:53 AM

May 2019

Biden +250
Sanders +325

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

40. More movement!

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Mon May 13, 2019, 12:54 PM

May 2019

Biden +225
Sanders +325

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

41. Movement continues. Seems to be reflecting the polls.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 11:50 AM

May 2019

Biden +225
Sanders +350

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

42. What link are you getting your numbers from?

Reply to WeekiWater (Reply #41)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:11 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

43. Same one you used in your op.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #42)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:14 PM

May 2019

I made sure to use the same ones presented in the article each time.

"Below are the odds each candidate had on April 1, 2019, along with the most current odds, according to the oddsmakers at Bovada."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

44. Supplying the actual link would be nice,

Reply to WeekiWater (Reply #43)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:16 PM

May 2019

my link in the OP still reflects May 5th numbers.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

45. Yes, odds change regularly and your article is now older. It tells you where the odds come from.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #44)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:19 PM

May 2019

Bovada’s 2020 Democratic Primary odds

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Uncle Joe

(58,370 posts)

46. It would still be nice to supply the actual link to your numbers.

Reply to WeekiWater (Reply #45)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:25 PM

May 2019

I googled Bovada’s 2020 Democratic Primary odds and this is what I got.

(snip)

Odds To Win The 2020 Presidential Election

Donald Trump (R) +120 Bernie Sanders (D) +550
Beto O'Rourke (D) +2000 Joe Biden (D) +450
Cory Booker (D) +5500 Amy Klobuchar (D) +5000
Kamala Harris (D) +1100 Julian Castro (D) +10000
Tulsi Gabbard (D) +5000 John Delaney (D) TBA
Andrew Yang (D) +2000 Kirsten Gillibrand (D) +6600
Pete Buttigieg (D) +1000 Elizabeth Warren (D) +2000

(snip)

https://www.presidentialelectionodds.net/sportsbook/bovada/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

47. Those aren't primary odds nor are they the ones used in your op.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Reply #46)

Wed May 15, 2019, 12:35 PM

May 2019

Though they do show Biden as the strongest Democrat.

Using the same google search you did.

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

They are Bovada's numbers.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

48. Lol, saw the name, knew it must be Sanders puffery.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 01:11 PM

May 2019

There's a lot of delusion in those "betting" on Sanders at this point.

After all Sanders fell behind right out of the gate, and continued to lose ground. That 3/4 of his 2016 primary support from solid Democrats is saying a big "NO to deja vu all over again."

Btw, as an indicator, only 2% of those who donate over $200 (so FEC filings reveal them) to various candidates include Sanders. (!)

Yes, the old "Sanders or Democrats be damned" crowd is with him, but they're it and won't grow, and if he does pull some trumpsters from the right that'll only antagonize Democrats more. Btw, he'd have to pull close to 30 million to overwhelm Democratic voters and win.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

49. The odds cited in the op are turning the same direction as the polls.

Reply to Hortensis (Reply #48)

Wed May 15, 2019, 01:14 PM

May 2019

Sanders is quickly dropping.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)

50. Yep; as of today:

Reply to WeekiWater (Reply #49)

Wed May 15, 2019, 01:20 PM

May 2019

Joe Biden +400
Bernie Sanders +700
Kamala Harris +1100
Pete Buttigieg +1200
Andrew Yang +2000
Elizabeth Warren +2000
Beto O'Rourke +2500
Tulsi Gabbard +3300
Amy Klobuchar +5000
Cory Booker +5500
Kirsten Gillibrand +6600

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

51. :) No surprise. This was just silly.

Reply to WeekiWater (Reply #49)

Wed May 15, 2019, 01:22 PM

May 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

The Velveteen Ocelot

(115,749 posts)

52. Three of them aren't even running.

Reply to Uncle Joe (Original post)

Wed May 15, 2019, 01:24 PM

May 2019

Wouldn't that skew the results a bit?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

WeekiWater

(3,259 posts)

53. No. Their money is in place.

Reply to The Velveteen Ocelot (Reply #52)

Wed May 15, 2019, 01:30 PM

May 2019

Over time fewer people will put money on those potential people. The people who have put money on Oprah can't now pull that money out.

I have always watched the betting in politics. In this case the movement since the op was posted is somewhat mimicking the polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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