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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
Tue May 14, 2019, 11:34 AM May 2019

Sanders on the decline with 18-29 year-olds

Morning Consult

Sanders on the decline with 18-29 year-olds: Throughout March, Bernie Sanders had 45% of the first choice vote share among America’s youngest voters. That support has steadily declined and currently sits at 33%.

2/10: 39%
2/17: 38%
2/24: 46%
3/3: 45%
3/10: 45%
3/17: 45%
3/24: 44%
3/31: 43%
4/7: 39%
4/14: 40%
4/21: 38%
4/28: 36%
5/5: 34%
5/12: 33%
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
28 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Sanders on the decline with 18-29 year-olds (Original Post) brooklynite May 2019 OP
I can't be surprised by this. He had HRC as the perfect foil in 2016. Now there is large diverse hlthe2b May 2019 #1
Great news! I'm very pleased to hear this, but... NurseJackie May 2019 #2
Ask yourself this, if you were a college kid crazytown May 2019 #8
who goes to a political event expecting a romantic evening??? Grasswire2 May 2019 #10
This message was self-deleted by its author crazytown May 2019 #11
No one said anything about Cha May 2019 #13
I am starting to believe that Senator Warren and Senator Harris are the most likely to emerge from Blue_true May 2019 #18
Bernie needs to schedule more events with AOC. nt oasis May 2019 #3
Why, so she can do the attacking of Biden instead of him? George II May 2019 #4
Bernie's gotta know that more face time with AOC will likey revive oasis May 2019 #9
AOC isn't ready to commit to Bernie. TexasTowelie May 2019 #12
Her connections with Justice Democrats may dictate who oasis May 2019 #22
Or hurt her image. Sanders' support is Hortensis May 2019 #17
Will Justice Democrats have any input on her choice? oasis May 2019 #23
The big question, all right. Baggage from her youth :) that Hortensis May 2019 #24
Her backing him will come as no surprise and will gain no traction for him. Blue_true May 2019 #19
She's going to back Joe. She's more like Nancy than LuvLoogie May 2019 #28
Agreed - She's The Face Of Progressive Youth (n/t) corbettkroehler May 2019 #16
She is hurting herself. Blue_true May 2019 #20
I think qazplm135 May 2019 #26
K&R Gothmog May 2019 #5
I think everyone is tired of PatSeg May 2019 #6
That's bad news for Bernie although it's not that surprising mtnsnake May 2019 #7
Once his loss of support is broken down, I think that you will see that Blue_true May 2019 #21
This polling is interesting Gothmog May 2019 #14
If Bernie loses support among youth, what is left??? Gothmog May 2019 #15
Wow, dropping fast. This is a good sign overall that realism R B Garr May 2019 #25
The "fool me once" "fool me twice" paradigm nt LibFarmer May 2019 #27
 

hlthe2b

(102,381 posts)
1. I can't be surprised by this. He had HRC as the perfect foil in 2016. Now there is large diverse
Tue May 14, 2019, 11:40 AM
May 2019

field and spans the entire Democratic political spectrum.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
2. Great news! I'm very pleased to hear this, but...
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:03 PM
May 2019

Great news! I'm very pleased to hear this, but... I'm not at all surprised. I think that most voters are starting to figure out BS and the BS campaign. They're rejecting his message and his lack of any real-world plans on how to accomplish all the grand promises being made. It's one thing to make promises, but it's quite another to demonstrate to educated, realistic, and discerning voters exactly HOW it is that all the promises are going to be kept.

Also, I think the almost nonstop smears and denigration of the Democratic party (and Democratic leadership) may have made BS a less desirable choice. At this critical time, party loyalty is very important to me and many others apparently too. It simply makes no sense for anyone on "our side" to be call the Democratic party "corrupt" or "feeble" or "the party of the elite" or saying there's "no difference" between the Democrats and the GOP. In all cases, nothing could be further from the truth.

The thing is... that kind of talk promotes negativity. Negativity generates apathy. Apathy discourages support and voting for Democratic candidates... and that just makes it easier for the GOP and Trump and Russia to steal elections.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
8. Ask yourself this, if you were a college kid
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:32 PM
May 2019

Would you ask your boyfriend or girlfriend out to see a Sanders event? A 30 minute hate doesn’t exactly set the right tone for a romantic evening.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Grasswire2

(13,571 posts)
10. who goes to a political event expecting a romantic evening???
Tue May 14, 2019, 01:26 PM
May 2019

That seems nuts.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to Grasswire2 (Reply #10)

 

Cha

(297,733 posts)
13. No one said anything about
Tue May 14, 2019, 02:04 PM
May 2019

"a romantic evening".

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
18. I am starting to believe that Senator Warren and Senator Harris are the most likely to emerge from
Wed May 15, 2019, 09:07 PM
May 2019

the scrum. Both saw polling drop but they kept at it. Both are showing amazing energy and policy chops. I really think that Senator Warren, in particular, is taking away Bernie's support. Once it is clear to the far left that Senator Warren is the only rational choice for their block, Bernie's support will likely crater toward low single digits.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oasis

(49,410 posts)
3. Bernie needs to schedule more events with AOC. nt
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:07 PM
May 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
4. Why, so she can do the attacking of Biden instead of him?
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:09 PM
May 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oasis

(49,410 posts)
9. Bernie's gotta know that more face time with AOC will likey revive
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:46 PM
May 2019

his poll numbers. He'll consider it a bonus if she continues to attack Biden.

My advice to AOC : "tread lightly".

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TexasTowelie

(112,456 posts)
12. AOC isn't ready to commit to Bernie.
Tue May 14, 2019, 01:50 PM
May 2019

She is keeping her options open to support Warren as an alternative. I wouldn't be surprised if AOC doesn't make a decision until after the New Hampshire primary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oasis

(49,410 posts)
22. Her connections with Justice Democrats may dictate who
Wed May 15, 2019, 10:00 PM
May 2019

she will ultimately support.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
17. Or hurt her image. Sanders' support is
Wed May 15, 2019, 07:36 PM
May 2019

dropping as people drawn by a vague familiarity are learning more about him. And about their other choices.

Note also that she has not endorsed him.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

oasis

(49,410 posts)
23. Will Justice Democrats have any input on her choice?
Wed May 15, 2019, 10:10 PM
May 2019
inquiring minds want to know.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
24. The big question, all right. Baggage from her youth :) that
Thu May 16, 2019, 02:42 AM
May 2019

she can't shake off because they might turn on her and take her out, or comrades in the revolution?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
19. Her backing him will come as no surprise and will gain no traction for him.
Wed May 15, 2019, 09:08 PM
May 2019

She would be smarter to back Senator Warren.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LuvLoogie

(7,036 posts)
28. She's going to back Joe. She's more like Nancy than
Thu May 16, 2019, 04:48 PM
May 2019

she is like Bernie. She and Nancy have the same moxy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

corbettkroehler

(1,898 posts)
16. Agreed - She's The Face Of Progressive Youth (n/t)
Wed May 15, 2019, 07:30 PM
May 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
20. She is hurting herself.
Wed May 15, 2019, 09:14 PM
May 2019

In her district there is a young slightly order (early thirties) progressive who is now a New York State Senator. At some point AOC will alienate enough people in her district for an ambitious politician or public figure that lives there to challenge her in the democratic primary, with a good short at beating her.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
26. I think
Thu May 16, 2019, 04:34 PM
May 2019

that she is a bit overrated and exposed, but not sure what you typed is true either.

She's certainly honest and authentic. Voters like that. She's in a pretty blue district with very liberal values.

And now she's the incumbent, with the advantages that come with that.

The only real risk she faces is if her district thinks she's not for them or she does the same thing the incumbent she beat did in ignoring a primary foe and not doing the hard work...but she doesn't seem like the not doing hard work type to me, so I suspect that doesn't happen.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

PatSeg

(47,613 posts)
6. I think everyone is tired of
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:15 PM
May 2019

persistent angry yelling. I honestly can't listen to it anymore. I've always like Bernie Sanders, but he has become too exhausting for me. A candidate has to mix some optimism and hope with the angry indignation.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

mtnsnake

(22,236 posts)
7. That's bad news for Bernie although it's not that surprising
Tue May 14, 2019, 12:26 PM
May 2019

Considering that so many other 2020 candidates are so attractive to younger supporters, I'm surprised he hasn't dropped in the youth category more than he has. I'd have to guess that Mayor Pete and Beto O'Rourke have cut into Bernie's corp of young voters somewhat, as well as a few other of our candidates who've cut into it as well.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
21. Once his loss of support is broken down, I think that you will see that
Wed May 15, 2019, 09:17 PM
May 2019

Senator Warren took it. She is a much more natural fit for his supporters than Beto or Buttigieg are.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,619 posts)
14. This polling is interesting
Tue May 14, 2019, 02:22 PM
May 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,619 posts)
15. If Bernie loses support among youth, what is left???
Wed May 15, 2019, 05:07 PM
May 2019

sanders is not trying to win a majority of the party but wants to get to the convention with 30% of the delegates. That is less likely now
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/15/1857658/-If-Bernie-loses-support-among-youth-what-s-left

Bernie Sanders’ strategy for victory in 2020 isn’t about winning the majority of delegates to the Democratic Party convention. “Sanders aides believe he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention,” reported The Atlantic. “They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.” Once they’re at the convention with his 30 percent, they presumably figure they can threaten and bully the party to nominate him. This way, he doesn’t have to work to expand support beyond his core group of supporters.

However, what happens if he can’t hold that core? This isn’t 2016, with a binary choice between Bernie and a demonized establishment Democrat. This is a rich field, with credible candidates representing just about every key party constituency. There are candidates just as liberal as Bernie, yet not as polarizing. So would Bernie’s core supporters stick with him as they became better aware of this amazing field? Apparently not, according to the latest Morning Consult primary poll.

“Sanders on the decline with 18-29 year-olds,” reads the polling memo. ”Throughout March, Bernie Sanders had 45% of the first choice vote share among America’s youngest voters. That support has steadily declined and currently sits at 33%.”...

With Bernie Sanders at 19 points in this poll, he’s a far cry from the 30 percent or so he wants for his “force himself upon a brokered convention” scenario (understanding that the popular vote and delegate allocation aren’t a one-to-one calculation, but close enough). It’s been clear he’s been maxed out for a while—both his and his supporters’ ornery approach to politics don’t lend themselves to big-tent embrace of a broader coalition. Quite the opposite, in fact.

He can’t grow, and if he can’t hold his most important supporters? His path to the nomination, already near-zero, becomes effectively zero.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

R B Garr

(16,990 posts)
25. Wow, dropping fast. This is a good sign overall that realism
Thu May 16, 2019, 04:03 PM
May 2019

is not dead.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

LibFarmer

(772 posts)
27. The "fool me once" "fool me twice" paradigm nt
Thu May 16, 2019, 04:40 PM
May 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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