Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumJoe Biden Has the Most to Lose at the Debates
The former vice president hasnt gone head-to-head with another Democrat in more than a decade.
EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE
5:00 AM ET
n that October night in 2012, everyone who had sat through Joe Bidens debate prep knew he was going to say malarkeythey just didnt know when. Democrats were panicking after Barack Obama had stumbled through his first debate with Mitt Romney one week earlier, but here was Biden, looking like he was having a good time dismissing Paul Ryan in the vice-presidential debate.
With all due respect, Biden said, interrupting Ryans very first answer that night in Kentucky, that's a bunch of malarkey. By the end of the evening, Biden had seemingly rescued his boss. Along the way, hed created a meme and launched a line of malarkey merchandise. It was a much better night for him than in 1987, when a bungled answer set off a plagiarism scandal that weeks later forced him to bow out of his first presidential run.
Biden has always been a strong debater, but he hasnt faced anyone since Ryan seven years ago, and hasnt debated another Democrat in more than a decade. The first Democratic showdowns, in Miami at the end of Juneover two nights with 10 candidates each will be the biggest moment in the 2020 race so far, and Biden, as the front-runner, clearly has the most to lose. Bidens team has kept him mostly out of sight since he launched his campaign at the end of April. Staying out of the way means he has less chance of making a comment that could be twisted into a news-cycle-defining scandal. Thats the upside. The downside, beyond having to fend off snide tweets about his skimpy schedule and articles questioning whether hes too old to keep up, is that hes getting almost no practice taking voter questions at town halls or in open exchanges with reporters. Now if he stumbles or screws up, itll be a prime-time event, with the rest of the field and an internet full of pundits ready to pounce. (On Tuesday, Biden released his long-promised climate plan and was immediately attacked both for not going far enough in his proposals and, in an echo of the 1987 scandal, for failing to include citations for certain passages.)
Biden has told friends that part of the reason for sticking to an ultra-light schedule is to create more time for debate prep, which for him tends to be less about conducting mock sessions and role-playing than digging into briefing books. This will likely hold: Bidens aides are not convinced that any kind of interaction hed have at a town hall or other event is comparable to whats awaiting him onstage. His campaign staffers expect the debates to either crystallize his top spot, or turn the primary into less of a marathon with Biden out ahead and more like two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs.
more
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/06/biden-democratic-debates-miami/591055/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
IADEMO2004
(5,559 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,231 posts)many folks just don't get Biden. They do not realize that the majority of the country wants normalcy. Biden represents normalcy He won't take any of trump's crap, Get behind Biden. He can win.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
IADEMO2004
(5,559 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
MineralMan
(146,329 posts)Joe Biden also has a good chance of picking up supporters at the debates. If so, most of them will come from candidates who are faring poorly in the early campaigning, going to the debate with just a couple of percentage points in the polls.
There's also a good chance that second, third, and fourth place in the polls may shift around somewhat. Probably the most effect will be seen between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who are competing for voters with similar concerns. There's a fair chance that Sanders will lose some supporters to Warren. Sanders' debating style is not always conducive to attracting supporters. That raises the possibility that both will drop below the 15% level in polling. That would risk them getting no delegates at all in some states.
And then there are Buttigieg and Harris. Good performances by them might also rob from Sanders and Warren, making the race for second tighter. Again, there is a risk of nobody having more than 15% of support going into the actual primaries and caucuses.
While Biden might have the most to lose, a good performance by him could lead to a lockout of everyone else, at least in some states, with all delegates being pledged to Biden in any state where nobody but him gets more than 15% of the vote.
Tense times, I'd think, and more for the second place position on down than at the top.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,839 posts)I suspect the debates will be a turning point for all these candidates. Everyone appears to be in a holding pattern at the moment.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)which will be easy for him since he is all those things.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kentonio
(4,377 posts)I really don't see any big drop for him at the debates, the main danger I'd imagine would be someone else outshining him, rather than him being brought down by anyone directly.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
honest.abe
(8,685 posts)I dont think that will hurt him much as most Dem primary voters are focused on who can beat Trump and not a glamour contest.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
WhiskeyGrinder
(22,431 posts)hash out the details later" vibe or comes out with policy positions that try to outflank others.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(68,667 posts)You win on broad proposals...the vision thing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sneederbunk
(14,300 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
peggysue2
(10,839 posts)Btw, I really laughed at the last line of your clip:
His campaign staffers expect the debates to either crystallize his top spot, or turn the primary into less of a marathon with Biden out ahead and more like two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs.
Two dozen Slinkies tumbling down a flight of stairs is an image I won't forget easily.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to DonViejo (Original post)
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True Dough
(17,320 posts)I have a feeling that's where he's going to shine. He lacks federal experience but he sure as heck doesn't lack the knowledge, the wit or the charm to excel.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided