"Conversely, Bernie Sanders has largely stagnated. Second-place candidates do not have a good record in Iowa when they are as well known as he is."

On 3/6, Biden was leading Sanders by two-points in Iowa. In three months, his support dropped by three-points, while his lead over Sanders went from +2 to +8, and that somehow signals he's going to lose?

Mkay.

There's 8 months to Iowa, and those numbers bode poorly for him.

That some see it only as an opportunity to attack Sanders reveal.much about their priorities.

Especially since 3 points is likely within the margin of error

You are right that 8 months is a long time, but Biden’s numbers look pretty steady to me so far

He has universal name recognition and nostalgia for the Obama years...and that's the best he can do? There are 20+ other candidates out there, all of them have supporters...and all of those supporters know Biden but picked Somebody Else.

Nationally he was at about 30% the day he announced, rose to 41 over the next 2 weeks, and has since dropped back to 32. That's before the first debate and before all those other candidates gain wide recognition.

I don't think Joe will be the nominee.

It goes for 6, and shows an 8 point drop over that time, a steady decline, with others gaining, primarily Warren.

So many things can happen in seven months it's ridiculous to make any long range projections. I think we all should calm down a bit and save our overwhelming enthusiasm for the primaries and presidential election. Trump has got everyone so wound up we're expending too much energy, too soon. He has that effect on people. I just think we should pace ourselves. Just my opinion.

Last edited Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:47 AM - Edit history (1)

missed his own Biden boat. That phrase must come from their own surprise at what happened when Biden announced.

Biden's loss of that giant lead now that people are over being relieved he's in and looking around is inevitable. As inevitable as that most of the candidates scarfing up those 1 and 2%s will drop out and their support also move. But it lasted long enough to underline how glad really large numbers of voters are that he's running. An ace in the hand.

This IA blogger points out that only 4 of the last 5 frontrunners at this point won the caucuses in the end, but IA does a poor job of predicting who becomes president. Only Carter, Obama and W Bush in almost 50 years. He points out that all those who became president placed within the top 3, though, which would be expected.

I'm guessing after some mostly downs and few ups given his competition and massive forces on both sides of the planet trying to take him down, Biden will probably end up winning the nomination because: America's very familiar and comfortable with him, he is the Obama elder-statesman legacy Trump hasn't been able to destroy, and the one big goal of this election that almost everyone shares is to elect Democrats and defeat Republicans. Electability. That's demonstrated among a lot of minority voters, many of whom will presumably try to elect another candidate but be ready to shift to the person in front who seems most likely to put Democrats in power. Whoever that is.

Btw, I believe the idea of who has "electability" is overwhelmingly poll driven. For all those who imagine it's race-driven code for white male only, I invite them to imagine what would happen if Obama were in the race. ... Yes.

He'd be male, though, and that trumped big in 2008. I'd hoped electability would mean one of our redoubtable women, and in the end who knows, but early polls argue against that. No matter how angry some of us are, in general we're afraid to nominate a woman because our top female hitter, who really should have won, didn't. And we have to win.

candidates. I think Biden has the best chance due to his ties with the Midwest and the fact he has been around too long for Trump to destroy him with the usual lies...the newer candidates would be more vulnerable to such attacks.

And for Sanders all the attacks and scandals they designed last time have been in storage. We need to shorten election seasons dramatically. Remembering when the people leading campaigns took leaves of absence from work to do it...

Dont ignore them, but dont put too much stock into them either.

Biden's core voters who tend to be older are probably not going to attend a raucous caucus with a bunch of aggressive supporters of other candidates trying to pressure them to change their minds. Furthermore, his numbers look very stable and given the large numbers of candidates, 24% is quite good. So what exactly is supposed to change to cause Biden to lose?

This article sounds like its written by someone who hopes he loses, not based on legitimate analysis.

Iowa winter night.

Sid

It certainly couldn't be the correlation that they finally get infer what they want to hear without it sounding too tortured, so therefore it's now valid; that would be, well... too glaringly obvious.

I don't think Iowa matters as much as people want to believe it does. Unless you're an unlikely candidate, then the added visibility may help in elections to come.

And, if Biden is in the lead, why is the subject line saying he will probably lose there? Editorialize much?

Sanders does well, though. He must invest a lot of resources in the state. What a waste.

Some of the prior posts that show the "tilt":

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/01/21/why-i-encourage-iowans-to-caucus-for-bernie-sanders/

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2015/11/02/first-bernie-sanders-commercial-makes-powerful-case-for-his-candidacy/

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2015/07/02/big-gains-for-bernie-sanders-in-latest-q-poll-of-iowa-democrats/

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/01/24/comparing-bernie-sanders-america-to-ronald-reagans-morning-in-america/

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/07/12/stop-badgering-bernie-sanders-supporters-to-vote-for-hillary-clinton/

Nothing more needs to be said.

Hardly.

Good post.

Sid

Not.

I'm so sick of Bernie and his negative energy. And yeah, it's his negative energy driving this. He could stop it. But not only does he let it go on, he hires people that stoke those flames as high as they can.

Just another scorched earth campaign to get material for the next book.

I mean, who wants to read a book about unity?

2/4 NY
2/22 NV Caucus
2/29 SC
3/3 CA, VA, NC among others

We don't get to a diverse group of voters until after Iowa. Ditto NH.

Larry Wilmore, I miss his show, cast and crew.

That was my first thought on reading your thread. Even the young and talented Nate Silver avoids the hyperbole of "gloom and doom" generated by a mere snapshot of the political landscape.

Go with the flow, create a message built on the negative that slays your adversary. I know easier said than done.

I find it interesting that Iowa, being a caucus state, still has Bernie running a distant second. Warren and Sanders are also both appealing to the same high progressive crowd, and since Warren's been running a close third to Sanders (and occasionally is appearing more often as second) my expectation is that Bernie's toast unless Warren withdraws.

I still think we'll end up with a Biden/Harris ticket next year.