You almost literally feel the heat. In many cases she mirrors how MILLIONS of us feel, and just as intensely. Almost literally shaking with anger and outrage over how badly and broadly this monster in our White House has fucked things up. I know I feel like that every doggone day! Starting from the moment I wake up in the morning. And she’s as authentic as can be. So her fury comes from a very real and honest place.

She doesn’t need a poll or focus group before she states her position. How refreshing.

That's not "just behind." She has passed Bernie's poll results in that particular poll.

In spite of this thing leading with her "stumbling badly," she didn't do anything of the sort. The venal press milked it for all they could get from it months ago, and hostile journalists also mostly smeared that phony slime for all it wasn't worth before the primaries started.

No doubt someone will try to revive it. Let's see how that works for him.

President Trump on Monday transformed a White House ceremony to honor Navajo veterans of World War II into a racially charged controversy, using the event as a platform to deride Senator Elizabeth Warren as “Pocahontas.”

his followers. It looks like Senator Warren is luring them away to her side.

There are too many candidates. They're all competing for the same voters. It will sort itself out over time, I'm sure.

costs about $30-45 million, and running out of money and into debt will sort out a bunch.

Any candidate given a big boost by enemies foreign and domestic efforts could undoubtedly do it for significantly less. At this point best guess is only one would benefit enough to make a difference, but who knows what the plotters are up to? They don't lack resources.

since 2016.
I've always said Bernie's greatest strength is that he has been saying the exact same thing, the exact same way for the last 35 years.
No flip flops or policy changes.
However, Bernie's greatest weakness is that he has been saying the exact same thing, the exact same way for the last 35 years.
He is unable to evolve/adapt his story or delivery to match the times.

setback to "the progressive agenda" after 2016. My biggest regret regarding Warren is that she decided not to run in 2016, leaving what was in retrospect a tragic vacuum. Both she and Hillary were/are strongly progressive, albeit with somewhat different approaches to what are ultimately very similar goals. Warren thought it was Hillary's year and she's be working with her from the senate or elsewhere.

We could have or be implementing effectively universal healthcare right now, regulatory leashes on business, taxing the wealth away from the dangerously welathy, the rooting out of institutionalized corruption, the Paris Climate Agreement, affordable college, additional civil rights protections, hundreds of liberal judicial appointments at all levels, massive new jobs training programs and news jobs through infrastructure development, and so much, much more.

I only voted for Sanders in the last primary because Warren wasn't running. I've been waiting for her to run for president since the first time I heard her speak, about 15 years ago.

the fact that the story didnt check out perfectly was an example of when a kernel of truth is enough and when it is just something you wrap a lie around.

she didnt kill it, but she let enough air out of it so that it wont fly now.
and she got it out early, like any good pr firm would tell you to do w bad news.

when Elizabeth Warren is in the field. If they want a Biden alternative, many would be happy with Warren.

Current delegate allocation rules make that almost impossible. You will see the 15% rule eliminate most candidates from the delegate count very early in the primary season.

Watch.

toward the end of the primaries with three major candidates, each with 15-40% of the vote. And that won't do it.

over 50% of the delegates. Rounding methods in delegate allocation will handle that just fine.

You'll see. Now, there may be two votes at the convention, or maybe even three. But, there will be a majority for one candidate. On the second vote, the super delegates come into play.

Yes they will end up with a majority at the convention. But that doesn't mean they'll have one on the first vote.

It doesn't matter if the convention has to take two or three votes, really. In the end, we'll have a nominee we can all get behind, right?

candidates with respectable poll numbers. Competition will bring out a true test of how each reacts to pressure and give the voting public an opportunity to gauge their readiness to challenge the Orange Menace.

judging by her performance on the stump.

..would live to see her on the ticket with Joe

Despite having name recognition that is probably at the level of Biden and Sanders. I hope that changes because it's clearly Warren's biggest vulnerability right now.

FWIW, here's margins for each candidate vs Trump:

Biden: +8.8
Sanders: +5.5
Warren: +3.2

beyond just a name. She is impressive when she speaks and most Americans haven't heard her speak yet. I think it's too early to say any candidate has a better chance to beat Trump than another.

Polls are showing her leading and leads can gain:

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren tops Trump 49 - 42 percent - Quinnipiac

National polls are only half the picture here - and Warren's total against Trump is less than Biden's, Sanders' and Harris' lead. That is problematic when you factor in her name recognition (I absolutely believe she is more well-known than Harris nationally). It's a good starting point, and if Warren leads Trump nationally by seven points in a collection of polls, absolutely, that will make me feel better. But this poll seems extremely favorable to the Democrats, so, I am unsure if any candidate leads by that wide of margin.

Thing is, as we saw in 2016, national polls are nice - but they don't mean a lick if the Democrats can't win back the three states they lost to Trump. This is where I feel 'MOE' will factor the heaviest.

In Pennsylvania, in the last Quinnipiac Poll, Warren led Trump by just three-points. In that same poll, Biden led Trump by eleven. Warren did do better than Harris (by three) and Buttigieg by two - but again, she's probably more well-known than either.

In Michigan, the last poll there (May) had Warren up 4. That same poll had Biden winning by twelve. In fact, Warren actually did worse in this poll than Buttigieg, but better than Harris (by a point).

I am cool if Warren wins - and wins this by four-points across the board ... but four-points is dangerously close and after 2016, I won't feel comfortable with a lead like that in two states the Democrats NEED to win.

Now it's early, and Warren could see her poll positioning improve greatly. But right now? Going off what facts I have, it is a valid concern for me - whether you believe so or not.

Joe Biden's lead could be a fallacy also. Time is the best Teacher and Warren's lead in the Quinnipiac poll is 7, not 4.

And yes, I'm skeptical Biden leads Trump by that much.

If they get a chance to listen to her, they may decide she makes sense.

A lot of Americans' first impression of Howard Dean was the Dean Scream and even today, it dominates his perception even though it's a very small aspect of who he is, or what kind of campaign he ran.

Some politicians can overcome bad first impressions. Bill Clinton was largely introduced to the nation via his affair with Gennifer Flowers. Of course, his response probably aided him - but he overcame it to win the primary and then the general.

It remains to be seen if Warren can overcome that or if it'll play a larger role in a campaign where she's more visible.

He very aggressively squelched all negative stories as soon as they came out.

In Warren's case, she seems to overwhelming everybody with her style and substance. Makes the Indian thing seem so petty, also it serves a narrative that she succeeded by pure talent rather than gaming the system.

She made the case that all that was in the past. Clinton's own aggressiveness included lying, changing his story etc. Without a media which favored him and Hillary, he would not have gotten past that.

Before 2016, I thought she knew she'd be attacked for everything she did in her entire life, and was prepared to jump on every lying reporter or Republican operative who dared to cross her. Still don't get why that didn't happen.

Last edited Thu Jun 13, 2019, 09:44 AM - Edit history (2)

than yourself. The more personal the accusations the harder to defend yourself.

In 1992, HRC could essentially make the case that 1) she had forgiven Bill, 2) she strongly felt that it was in the past and would have no impact on his ability to govern. She was uniquely in the position to be the one whose forgiveness was needed. As such, she had the power to diminish the impact on Bill's reputation and chances.

When you are defending yourself, there are at least two cases I can think of where it is far better to have relevant others do the defense.

One would be like the Flowers accusation where the only person hurt by the actions (Hillary) was willing to strongly argue that this would not preclude him being an excellent President and (implicitly) that their marriage was ok. Note that this had to be accompanied with Bill Clinton's admission that it happened and was wrong.

The other would be when the accusation is a lie and the person's record in that area is exceptional - to the extent defending yourself with the truth seems like bragging. 2004 was a great case of that. Kerry's fitness reports were included on his website as part of his Navy records. They showed an unusually thoughtful, compassionate leader who fostered unusual loyalty from his men -- and who won two prestigious medals for bravery in addition to his purple hearts. The media had the NAVY records that showed this -- and they should have been the ones to say that whether you agree with his politics or whether you vote for him, he had been an outstanding young officer.

I think the main problem HRC had in 2016 was with everything email related. Here, she screwed up in not leaving the email with the State Department. Then when everything came out, she tried to spin how it would be dealt with -- only to have to alter her statements a few times. If I had to guess, this was the reaction of someone whose image of herself was that of someone who follows rules -- and she does, who had a blind spot on allowing all the oversight that was required. This might have been a reaction to having everything she did put under a microscope.

Years ago, I read parts of Syd Blumenthal's book. There was a story about several Democratic Senators coming to the WH early in Bill's first term. They advised the Clinton's to just put out everything on Whitewater because they had done nothing wrong. Blumenthal recounted that it was Hillary that went ballistic when they left - angry that they would ask that.

But it isn't only her passion, I also like the fact
that she does her homework. It would be so great to have a candidate who could inspire excitement.

This is becoming clearer with each passing week.

The argument that only Biden can beat trump is dead.

"6 Democrats would beat Trump if the election were held today, according to a new national poll

Six of the 24 declared 2020 Democratic presidential candidates would defeat President Donald Trump in a one-on-one general matchup if the election were held today, according to a national Quinnipiac University poll released on Tuesday."
https://www.businessinsider.com/six-democrats-beat-trump-if-election-held-today-new-poll-2019-6

This trend will continue, more and more Democrats will poll beating Trump by larger and larger margins.

So, this primary season WILL come down to all the other issues deciding who should be the nominee.

It is clear that Warren is going to be our consensus nominee and will unite the party.

Warren is excellent, and I expect her to shine at the debates. I expect Buttigieg to get a bump too, but the dark horse here could be Jay Inslee. Jay is passionate, an accomplished governor, and IMO right to prioritize climate change — an important distinction, considering most candidates are almost on the same page on most other issues. He speaks with conviction, which is a winning quality, and has a track record he can point to.

Warren seems to be siphoning some of Bernie’s support. She wants to defend the little guy from exploitation, but can do it without the “socialist” label.

Gains to other lesser-known candidates will probably come mostly at the expense of the frontrunner. The question is, will those gains change Biden’s first-place status? If so, it looks like Warren could step in and win this thing. I think she would stomp Trump.

She's one of the few 'what you see is what you get' candidates IMO and I believe she will appeal to moderates to an extent that will surprise everyone. She will get shit done. Non-voters (mostly younger people) are not likely to come out just for Joe Biden or Amy Klobuchar IMO...sorry, I just don't see it happening. They will come out for Warren once they hear her speak.

and she's pretty down-to-earth!

She has been nailing it so far this year.

If she becomes our Party's nominee next year I would be proud to support her.

That's why. Keep it up Senator Warren!

She is a candidate to take seriously.

to have Warren as our next POTUS!

Her ability to articulate what her policies are and how they directly help the people listening is really remarkable. And she gives a damn fine stump speech!!

And I also like it that she's starting to elbow Bernie out of the way - she's a much better spokesperson for progressive economic policies.

It would be nice if he dropped out and urged his supporters to switch to Warren but, unfortunately, I don’t see that happening.

I supported him then, but I'm really, really over him.

but was horrified at how some of his supporters acted after he lost. And Sanders didn’t do enough to dissuade them. He needs to be forceful this time in backing the nominee and really make clear to his base how important it is that they vote against Trump.

We can’t afford a repeat of 2016.

Clinton might have had her hands full last time around had it been Warren running.

Good time Joe versus Ma Kettle.

Joe always ready with a story or an inspirational message, great conversationalist, journeyman politician in every sense of the word.

Elizabeth doesn't tell stories or talk in abstracts. She doesn't accept deflection or bullshit or half answers.

Joe is a fencer. Elizabeth is a knife fighter.

and is able to relate her policy positions to things she or her family experienced. Here's one: https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/03/19/childhood-financial-problems-mom-dress-story-elizabeth-warren-town-hall-sot-vpx.cnn

In this sense—she could fulfill a historical role similar to that played by FDR. This is very good news.

It brings to mind that "the first casualty in war is the battle plan".

Fortunately, and unlike last time, we have more than just one candidate for them to try and throw mud at from the get go and the attacks won't be backed by 30 years of largely negative treatment by the MSM and non stop total smearing by the RW media machine.

That killed us last time and Comey's letter was the final nail in the coffin.

Now look at the mess that will need to be cleaned up.

She’s a very strong candidate. Mayor Pete is still my favorite, but I can definitely get into supporting Warren, too.

But I would vote for an amoeba over Trump (amoeba would certainly be smarter). That said, if Warren is the candidate, we will have one more Senate seat to find to retake control. The Massachusetts governor is a Republican and would most likely appoint a Republican to replace Warren. Why liberal, blue Massachusetts keeps voting for Republican governors is a total mystery to me. Surely there are competent Democrats there!

Movin on up!

throw his full support to EW, enthusiastically, not like he did with Hillary.

But with him, it's all about his ego

Link to tweet

Because once one finally backs down, their votes will go to the other one. Bodes well for a more progressive candidate in the end.

You're in my top tier!

I did not get all of it because I just walked into the living room when she was telling it to Chris Hayes, it was about her Aunt moving in with her with seven suit cases and a Pekingese named Buddy and stayed for 16 years. I thought a lot of people can really sympathize with that.

Liz is smart, speaks in a plain folk way, genuine, energetic and is building a grassroots coalition state by state and she has a plan for all of America. She is a capitalist but want fair capitalism. She is big business and the wall street elites worse nightmare. Expect them to spend millions of dollars to try and tear her down.

she’s great!

Especially if Biden's support for the bankruptcy bill comes up as a topic. Warren will be all over him.

Biden is still hovering around 30% on average while Sanders has lost 5-10% the last couple of months. Warren is picking up most of those people that are looking for something not Sanders.

If nominated, she could win.

I like her chances to shine at the debates, she is well spoken and conveys the impression that she really believes in her takes. Also her coming from a typical middle class life helps her connect with real folks.

My guess is it will come down to her, Biden, Harris, and maybe Mayor Pete. My hope some of the also rans like Bullock will run for the Senate so whoever wins can get his agenda moving and get Judges appointed including the Supremes.