Democratic Primaries

essadaw

(185 posts) Wed Jun 12, 2019, 04:53 PM Jun 2019

Harry Enten's statistical analysis of Iowa polls since'80.

Here is Harry Enten's tweet about his statistical analysis of Iowa caucus polls since 1980. More winners were polling <5% at this stage in the primary than between 10-30%

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Examined Iowa caucus polling at this point since 80. It's a rough analysis, but what stood out to me is how many people came from less than 5% to win IA. How few won IA when polling between 10%-30% (where frontrunners are right now). (1/?) <a href="https://t.co/snvPdmLJvX">https://t.co/snvPdmLJvX</a></p>— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) <a href="

Link to tweet

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 12, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

8 replies

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Harry Enten's statistical analysis of Iowa polls since'80. (Original Post) essadaw Jun 2019 OP

How many fields of 24 have there been since the '80s? crazytown Jun 2019 #1

Warren is one of many who fit the bill for this, and seems to gaining in appeal quickly. Tiggeroshii Jun 2019 #3

But a smaller field essadaw Jun 2019 #4

That was my first thought. No one can compare what we have this time around to any previous.... George II Jun 2019 #7

And Trump makes a difference. crazytown Jun 2019 #8

Your post without the excess stuff left-of-center2012 Jun 2019 #2

Thanks essadaw Jun 2019 #5

To post a tweet ... left-of-center2012 Jun 2019 #6

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

1. How many fields of 24 have there been since the '80s?

Reply to essadaw (Original post)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 04:56 PM

Jun 2019

lies, damned lies, and statistics

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

3. Warren is one of many who fit the bill for this, and seems to gaining in appeal quickly.

Reply to crazytown (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 04:59 PM

Jun 2019

Keeping my eye on her!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

essadaw

(185 posts)

4. But a smaller field

Reply to crazytown (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 05:07 PM

Jun 2019

But a smaller field would just make it more impressive for a candidate polling below <5% to win. When the field of 24 consolidates, the % of most of the remaining candidates will increase.

This analysis just highlights that obsessing over polls at this stage in the primary--beyond the need to qualify for debates--is problematic.

There are a lot of people not paying attention to the race yet, as hard as it is to believe for those of us who follow this.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

George II

(67,782 posts)

7. That was my first thought. No one can compare what we have this time around to any previous....

Reply to crazytown (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 06:29 PM

Jun 2019

....years.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

8. And Trump makes a difference.

Reply to George II (Reply #7)

Wed Jun 12, 2019, 08:48 PM

Jun 2019

American democracy is in crisis. 17 Democrats ran for the nomination in 1976. Putting cynicism aside, when the Republic was at risk, people who were committed to public service stepped forward. How today's deeper crisis will change the dynamics of this nomination is anyone's guess. Statistics from 1980 onwards are compromised by the turn of events.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided