I'm not sure what to expect. I think that overall I agree with your analysis and predictions, except that I feel like Yang has the opportunity to get some significant gains, here. Biden and Sanders could both significantly drop down if all they do is more of the same, or if they don't stick the landing like Warren did. It's possible that Harris and Buttigieg have a shot here at really cementing a spot in the race instead of being also-rans. I'm torn about Gillibrand, and just don't know what she needs to do in this debate to get noticed and gain support.

The Some More News crew is going to be doing a livestream watching the debate with their friend Robert Evans from Behind the Bastards. Not sure if that's for their Patreon supporters only, but might be worth checking out their twitter/YouTube channel to see if it's live.

I put Yang in that category because (a) I think too many people will still find his ideas too "out there" and (b) even when he presents those ideas well, I think the way he comes across, while perfectly pleasant and "likable," doesn't communicate the confidence/authority/gravitas needed for enough people to say, yeah, I can see him as president, I can see him beating Trump, I'm gonna vote for this guy. That is, I think even those who find him appealing are likely going to end up voting for someone else.

Gillibrand presents the opposite problem. She's not going to say anything that captures the imagination. Policy-wise, she doesn't particularly stand out in any meaningful way. BUT... she presents well, and people who see her speak tend to like her, and that's helped get her elected, despite being, historically, all over the place on significant issues. In short, presentation is her strength, where it is Yang's achilles heel. And on TV, presentation trumps content, which is why I think there is some possibility she could make an impact.

since I'm not a fan.

I don't think Sanders gains anything tonight.

Harris and Buttigieg, maybe.

It's the only strategy left for him, really, Liz has stolen his thunder and he's slipping badly

It's early enough, he can afford to wait it out a little bit. It's not impossible that Biden could flame out some on his own, which could leave Bernie in the lead without having to have lifted (or wagged) a finger.

I don't think he can restrain the urge to mix it up

are Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, Harris, and Beto.

The others are running for other reasons.

It's not impossible that someone else catches fire. Nobody expected Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton to have much of a shot at the beginning.

If at this stage of the game, a candidate has broken 1% (and some haven't broken 1/2%), it ain't gonna happen.

and seven months before the first caucus. Heck, someone new just entered the race like a week ago

I think some candidates are counting on the debates as the first time many people will be able to form any opinion about them at all, and a bunch haven't even been seen in a single debate yet.

At this stage in 2007, Hillary was ahead of Obama...but Obama's numbers were very good. They were close.

If someone appeals to the masses, that shows up early on, at least somewhat. But if a candidate is struggling to appeal to even 1/2% or 1%, it's pretty much over for them. They don't have "it," or it's not their time.

That’s my prediction.

Sanders gives his stump speech. Biden and Harris attack Trump. Buttigieg keeps above the fray.

Yang might just surprise you - or he may fold, getting nervous being on the national state. He has some interesting ideas that might catch fire.

This is surely the "stronger" field. Will be harder to make an impression. That said, I expect Bernie to do well as he generally stays with his talking points and isn't flustered easily. So unless there is a question like, "what do you expect to do when the Martians land in Washington, how would you greet them?" I think he will have his points, like Warren, in order.

Based on Biden's past performance in these group debates, I don't expect too much. I don't think this is his best forum. He certainly has charisma and maybe that will be enough given the panel. I also do not expect him to be nervous and give a poor performance as he has done these debates for decades. I am interested in hearing what he has to say as there isn't much material out there outlining his positions.

Mayor Pete and Harris have the best chance to make an impression. Both are talented speakers and unless nerves get to them should perform well.

I've seen very little of the rest of the lineup. What I have seen during interviews, etc. did not really send shivers down my back, so my expectations are low. But always willing to be surprised.

He just does not impress me as someone who can campaign and connect with people in order to defeat Trump.

You are right. He did horribly in the debates. Both he and Williamson could have sat home. The interviews I've seen him on I found him much more articulate.

Could have been overwhelmed by the event or just nor ready for prime time. That or he and Williamson were the two non-politicians and they just got rolled.

He got in late and has been ignored, but I've been impressed with the few times I've seen him speak or be interviewed.

I doubt he moved the needle tonight.