Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumI predict that Harris' calculated debate stunt
Last edited Mon Jul 1, 2019, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)
will backfire with the majority of Democratic voters the way Clintons ugly campaign against Obama did in 2008.
That said, my track record for political predictions is not the that good. Abysmal, actually. For example, I predicted that Ronald Reagan would not be elected President of the United States. I predicted he would never be re-elected and that George H. W. Bush would never be elected. I did think George W. might win in 2000, but only because women had started wearing pedal pushers - crop pants - for the first time since the 1950s - which I felt was was an ominous indicator.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ananda
(28,881 posts)It's early on.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mme. Defarge
(8,051 posts)Ive had to go on blood pressure medication since Trump became president!
Deep breath, then, keep calm and GOTFV.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,411 posts)sigh...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,411 posts)Those old enough to have lived through systematic segregation, who have followed Biden for years (versus the other truly horrendous segregationist, racist politicians) are likely to see all this through the lens of "experience" and "complexity". While I think Harris will have impressed them in her overall persona and debate performance, I doubt they are going to change their pre-formed opinions of Biden that stretches over decades--not to mention through the years of Obama-Biden in the White House.
The "hit" may be to some younger voters of all races, but then I think the age issue is front and center with them to begin with.
Thus, as I predicted on the night of debate 2, Harris will improve but not necessarily at the 'dramatic' expense of Biden. I think she will take from the other front runners as well. And, while Biden may see a slip in overall support, I think those predicting major moves among African Americans away from him may well be wrong.
I only wish the second debate in a little less than 4 weeks would have fewer participants to make it less unwieldy. I'm not suggesting pushing anyone out, but maybe if the fund-raising isn't going well they will do so on their own.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mme. Defarge
(8,051 posts)It almost needed a maneuver like Harris to stand out.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)based on integrity, never stooping to low blows, innuendo, character-assassination.
How the Harris stunt will play out, I just don't know.
And though Biden has the best qualifications for the presidency, he is not Obama. Repeated attacks meant to tie him to racists and racism, and thus by implication, reveal him as a racist, might wound him gravely.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,278 posts)and his win over her had little to do with all of that.
it was more her neglecting iowa which gave him that win while she came in 3rd. so he was seen as more of a winner and electable. but she continued to do well and it was very close.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)You can not point to a comparable on Obama's side. Look up Geraldine Ferraro.
I am not going into it example by exampleI have many. But the ugly attacks were not reciprocated in kind.
I have no idea if her campaign conduct featured in her loss. I think he was a superior and more
compelling candidate and ran a killer campaign, in which all volunteers, no matter how lowly, must
not violate the prevailing tone, which was, in a nutshell, to go high when they go low.
Watch any debate from that campaign and you will see him acting on this principle.
Hilary was a good Secretary of State, is a fine mind, one of the most resilient politicians in history, and a treasure as an elder statesperson.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,278 posts)none of this matters now other than to use it as an example if how ugly primary campaigns can be dealt with and Hillary made the right moves.
but the claim it was ugly from just one side is not true.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)Ferraro, a key supporter and advisor racist dog-whistled. She had to quit.
I say no more. Watch the debates. Read interviews with Hilary.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,500 posts)and accuse her of doing terrible, shameful things. I think the relentless attempt to tag her with that narrative is the main reason she lost.
But I don't agree that she neglected Iowa. She spent 25 million dollars there, and the media criticized her at the time for making too much of an effort in a caucus state that was never going to be her best place to perform well.
Ironically, she listened to them and didn't campaign too hard in the remaining caucuses. That was one of the main reasons she lost.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
dsc
(52,169 posts)event and then lied to our faces about it. Total integrity there.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,500 posts)It was an honorable campaign that was all about "Solutions for America."
The media kept looking for reason to accuse her of running dirty, and behaving badly, going all the way back to the "Kindergarten attack."
It was the fake email scandal, episode one.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cannabis_flower
(3,768 posts)Did women wearing crop pants have to do with anything?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mme. Defarge
(8,051 posts)it just felt so Eisenhower.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cannabis_flower
(3,768 posts)Still seems so random to me.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mme. Defarge
(8,051 posts)it is?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
WheelWalker
(8,956 posts)Totally agree with you.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,411 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,803 posts)of her 8 pt post debate gain
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Galraedia
(5,027 posts)Inferring that Biden was racist was not only laughable, it's pathetic. That's not going to phase Trump or his supporters. It's also not going carry her in the states she needs to win in.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Kahuna7
(2,531 posts)playbook that will end up suppressing the Democratic vote. In 2016 it was BLM and "super predators." Now it's busing and Anita Hill??
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Turin_C3PO
(14,084 posts)Maybe if people get it out of their systems now, itll be faded by the time of the election. Thats my hope anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,411 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
emmaverybo
(8,144 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
broiles
(1,370 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
tritsofme
(17,405 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Blue_true
(31,261 posts)All since Thursday night.
Biden can't afford to have his African American firewall dented significantly. If that happens, he is open game to Warren (hell, he may already be that now). If it comes down to a fight for White progressives between Warren and Biden, he loses the nomination.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ProudMNDemocrat
(16,811 posts)If she continues to harp on that particular issue at the next debate or attack Biden on the campaign trail about that, it may backfire big time.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to Mme. Defarge (Original post)
Freelancer This message was self-deleted by its author.
EffieBlack
(14,249 posts)honestly about race.
Im sure Harris is ready for it and knows how to handle it. Its nothing new.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Response to EffieBlack (Reply #30)
Freelancer This message was self-deleted by its author.
GreenPartyVoter
(72,381 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
StarfishSaver
(18,486 posts)about race.
The truth is that too many white people are still VERY uncomfortable talking about race and they only want it brought up and talked about when and in the context and language that brings them absolutely no discomfort and even if the discussion starts off ok for them, they want it halted the minute they no longer like the way it's going.
But any meaningful discussion of race that is to result in more than just affirmation that everyone is doing it perfect is going to bring some unease. Assuming that you can talk about it without it or that that unease is somehow equivalent to being called a racist or a bad person is a problem and it's a problem that people are going to have to address and overcome if they really want to get anywhere. And attacking people who do bring it up because we didn't bring it up when and talk about it the way that ensures that no white person feels uncomfortable - and being expected to apologize or "make amends" for doing so - is a non-starter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
customerserviceguy
(25,183 posts)Given your track record, the next stunt will probably work.
And while there is still a dispute as to how much Sen. Harris went up in the polls, or if the rise lasts, it can't be disputed that she raised millions of dollars from it, with which to pay for more ads, etc. I'd call that working for her.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
StevieM
(10,500 posts)doing diabolical things.
She should be proud of herself for being a good enough candidate to do so well, while facing such an impossible landscape.
And speaking for myself, supporting Hillary's 2008 campaign for president was the proudest experience of my life.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mme. Defarge
(8,051 posts)As I have already admitted, I have been wrong about many things in my life.
Peace,
MD
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
njhoneybadger
(3,910 posts)i agree with your prediction
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)And whats wrong with them anyway?
I think Harris will be fine.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Mme. Defarge
(8,051 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden