Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Mme. Defarge

(8,051 posts)
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:14 PM Jun 2019

I predict that Harris' calculated debate stunt

Last edited Mon Jul 1, 2019, 10:15 AM - Edit history (1)

will backfire with the majority of Democratic voters the way Clinton’s ugly campaign against Obama did in 2008.

That said, my track record for political predictions is not the that good. Abysmal, actually. For example, I predicted that Ronald Reagan would not be elected President of the United States. I predicted he would never be re-elected and that George H. W. Bush would never be elected. I did think George W. might win in 2000, but only because women had started wearing pedal pushers - crop pants - for the first time since the 1950’s - which I felt was was an ominous indicator.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
I predict that Harris' calculated debate stunt (Original Post) Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 OP
I wouldn't worry about it. ananda Jun 2019 #1
NOT WORRY ABOUT IT??? Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #3
Moi aussi. NT emmaverybo Jun 2019 #5
Yup... I've gained weight though I'm not eating differently nor more--it is stress cortisol effect hlthe2b Jun 2019 #12
As I've said repeatedly, I think it is going to be an "age thing" with African American support hlthe2b Jun 2019 #2
The format was terrible. Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #7
I agree that Hilary waged an ugly campaign against Obama while he, by contrast, waged one emmaverybo Jun 2019 #4
this is just not true. there was ugliness on both sides and i supported him JI7 Jun 2019 #15
She said McCain would make a better commander-in-chief than Obama. And other ugliness. emmaverybo Jun 2019 #24
there were many men supporting Obama with sexist attacks. JI7 Jun 2019 #26
He made no sexist attack on her. Neither did anyone on his team. Not counting online supporters. emmaverybo Jun 2019 #29
I agree that it was terrible in 2008 when the media worked relentlessly to smear her StevieM Jul 2019 #42
yeah he was full of integrity when he had Donny McClurkin host a campaign dsc Jun 2019 #20
I am only talking about integrity with respect to how he treated Hilary, his opponent. emmaverybo Jun 2019 #34
Supporting Hillary's 2008 campaign for president was one of the proudest experiences of my life. StevieM Jun 2019 #32
What the hell cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #6
Having grown up in the fifties Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #8
IDK cannabis_flower Jun 2019 #10
Because maybe Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #18
Astute observation IMO. WheelWalker Jun 2019 #11
LOL hlthe2b Jun 2019 #9
you might be better at predictions than you think. Morning consult: Harris has already slipped 5 pts Thekaspervote Jun 2019 #13
She did exactly what Russia tried to do in creating racial division in 2016 Galraedia Jun 2019 #14
Yep. Dems learned nothing from 2016 and are actually using the Russian Kahuna7 Jun 2019 #16
It's early yet. Turin_C3PO Jun 2019 #17
That is what I am hoping... hlthe2b Jun 2019 #19
Second your hope. emmaverybo Jun 2019 #25
So what. broiles Jun 2019 #21
I am shocked, shocked to find politics happening a political campaign! Oh the horror! tritsofme Jun 2019 #22
Her support doubled. She got $2.5 million in donations. Blue_true Jun 2019 #23
If that be the case, then it will be Kamala who should own it... ProudMNDemocrat Jun 2019 #27
This message was self-deleted by its author Freelancer Jun 2019 #28
Minority candidates are used to being called "grievance candidates" (and worse) whenever they speak EffieBlack Jun 2019 #30
This message was self-deleted by its author Freelancer Jul 2019 #37
Trump ran as one. GreenPartyVoter Jul 2019 #38
Obama was accused of being a grievance candidate and a grievance president every time he talked StarfishSaver Jul 2019 #41
Well, then customerserviceguy Jun 2019 #31
She got half the vote in 2008, in spite of the media's relentless narrative that she was StevieM Jun 2019 #33
Thank you for sharing your experience and insight. Mme. Defarge Jun 2019 #35
It was a cheap shot against Joe and people won't forget it so easily njhoneybadger Jun 2019 #36
Isn't it "pedal pushers?" As in pedals on a bike? cwydro Jul 2019 #39
Fixed! Mme. Defarge Jul 2019 #40
 

ananda

(28,881 posts)
1. I wouldn't worry about it.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:16 PM
Jun 2019

It's early on.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mme. Defarge

(8,051 posts)
3. NOT WORRY ABOUT IT???
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:23 PM
Jun 2019

I’ve had to go on blood pressure medication since Trump became president!

Deep breath, then, keep calm and GOTFV.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

hlthe2b

(102,411 posts)
12. Yup... I've gained weight though I'm not eating differently nor more--it is stress cortisol effect
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:33 PM
Jun 2019

sigh...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

hlthe2b

(102,411 posts)
2. As I've said repeatedly, I think it is going to be an "age thing" with African American support
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:23 PM
Jun 2019

Those old enough to have lived through systematic segregation, who have followed Biden for years (versus the other truly horrendous segregationist, racist politicians) are likely to see all this through the lens of "experience" and "complexity". While I think Harris will have impressed them in her overall persona and debate performance, I doubt they are going to change their pre-formed opinions of Biden that stretches over decades--not to mention through the years of Obama-Biden in the White House.

The "hit" may be to some younger voters of all races, but then I think the age issue is front and center with them to begin with.


Thus, as I predicted on the night of debate 2, Harris will improve but not necessarily at the 'dramatic' expense of Biden. I think she will take from the other front runners as well. And, while Biden may see a slip in overall support, I think those predicting major moves among African Americans away from him may well be wrong.

I only wish the second debate in a little less than 4 weeks would have fewer participants to make it less unwieldy. I'm not suggesting pushing anyone out, but maybe if the fund-raising isn't going well they will do so on their own.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mme. Defarge

(8,051 posts)
7. The format was terrible.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:27 PM
Jun 2019

It almost needed a maneuver like Harris’ to stand out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
4. I agree that Hilary waged an ugly campaign against Obama while he, by contrast, waged one
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:25 PM
Jun 2019

based on integrity, never stooping to low blows, innuendo, character-assassination.
How the Harris stunt will play out, I just don't know.
And though Biden has the best qualifications for the presidency, he is not Obama. Repeated attacks meant to tie him to racists and racism, and thus by implication, reveal him as a racist, might wound him gravely.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JI7

(89,278 posts)
15. this is just not true. there was ugliness on both sides and i supported him
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:39 PM
Jun 2019

and his win over her had little to do with all of that.

it was more her neglecting iowa which gave him that win while she came in 3rd. so he was seen as more of a winner and electable. but she continued to do well and it was very close.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
24. She said McCain would make a better commander-in-chief than Obama. And other ugliness.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:27 PM
Jun 2019

You can not point to a comparable on Obama's side. Look up Geraldine Ferraro.

I am not going into it example by example—I have many. But the ugly attacks were not reciprocated in kind.

I have no idea if her campaign conduct featured in her loss. I think he was a superior and more
compelling candidate and ran a killer campaign, in which all volunteers, no matter how lowly, must
not violate the prevailing tone, which was, in a nutshell, to go high when they go low.

Watch any debate from that campaign and you will see him acting on this principle.

Hilary was a good Secretary of State, is a fine mind, one of the most resilient politicians in history, and a treasure as an elder statesperson.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JI7

(89,278 posts)
26. there were many men supporting Obama with sexist attacks.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:33 PM
Jun 2019

none of this matters now other than to use it as an example if how ugly primary campaigns can be dealt with and Hillary made the right moves.

but the claim it was ugly from just one side is not true.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
29. He made no sexist attack on her. Neither did anyone on his team. Not counting online supporters.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:44 PM
Jun 2019

Ferraro, a key supporter and advisor racist dog-whistled. She had to quit.
I say no more. Watch the debates. Read interviews with Hilary.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
42. I agree that it was terrible in 2008 when the media worked relentlessly to smear her
Mon Jul 1, 2019, 12:57 PM
Jul 2019

and accuse her of doing terrible, shameful things. I think the relentless attempt to tag her with that narrative is the main reason she lost.

But I don't agree that she neglected Iowa. She spent 25 million dollars there, and the media criticized her at the time for making too much of an effort in a caucus state that was never going to be her best place to perform well.

Ironically, she listened to them and didn't campaign too hard in the remaining caucuses. That was one of the main reasons she lost.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

dsc

(52,169 posts)
20. yeah he was full of integrity when he had Donny McClurkin host a campaign
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 06:20 PM
Jun 2019

event and then lied to our faces about it. Total integrity there.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
34. I am only talking about integrity with respect to how he treated Hilary, his opponent.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 09:20 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
32. Supporting Hillary's 2008 campaign for president was one of the proudest experiences of my life.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 09:00 PM
Jun 2019

It was an honorable campaign that was all about "Solutions for America."

The media kept looking for reason to accuse her of running dirty, and behaving badly, going all the way back to the "Kindergarten attack."

It was the fake email scandal, episode one.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

cannabis_flower

(3,768 posts)
6. What the hell
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:27 PM
Jun 2019

Did women wearing crop pants have to do with anything?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mme. Defarge

(8,051 posts)
8. Having grown up in the fifties
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:29 PM
Jun 2019

it just felt so Eisenhower.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

cannabis_flower

(3,768 posts)
10. IDK
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:30 PM
Jun 2019

Still seems so random to me.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

WheelWalker

(8,956 posts)
11. Astute observation IMO.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:32 PM
Jun 2019

Totally agree with you.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thekaspervote

(32,803 posts)
13. you might be better at predictions than you think. Morning consult: Harris has already slipped 5 pts
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:34 PM
Jun 2019

of her 8 pt post debate gain

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Galraedia

(5,027 posts)
14. She did exactly what Russia tried to do in creating racial division in 2016
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:35 PM
Jun 2019

Inferring that Biden was racist was not only laughable, it's pathetic. That's not going to phase Trump or his supporters. It's also not going carry her in the states she needs to win in.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)
16. Yep. Dems learned nothing from 2016 and are actually using the Russian
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:40 PM
Jun 2019

playbook that will end up suppressing the Democratic vote. In 2016 it was BLM and "super predators." Now it's busing and Anita Hill??

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Turin_C3PO

(14,084 posts)
17. It's early yet.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:43 PM
Jun 2019

Maybe if people get it out of their systems now, it’ll be faded by the time of the election. That’s my hope anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

hlthe2b

(102,411 posts)
19. That is what I am hoping...
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 05:57 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

tritsofme

(17,405 posts)
22. I am shocked, shocked to find politics happening a political campaign! Oh the horror!
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 07:56 PM
Jun 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
23. Her support doubled. She got $2.5 million in donations.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:23 PM
Jun 2019

All since Thursday night.

Biden can't afford to have his African American firewall dented significantly. If that happens, he is open game to Warren (hell, he may already be that now). If it comes down to a fight for White progressives between Warren and Biden, he loses the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ProudMNDemocrat

(16,811 posts)
27. If that be the case, then it will be Kamala who should own it...
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:37 PM
Jun 2019

If she continues to harp on that particular issue at the next debate or attack Biden on the campaign trail about that, it may backfire big time.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to Mme. Defarge (Original post)

 

EffieBlack

(14,249 posts)
30. Minority candidates are used to being called "grievance candidates" (and worse) whenever they speak
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:54 PM
Jun 2019

honestly about race.

I’m sure Harris is ready for it and knows how to handle it. It’s nothing new.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to EffieBlack (Reply #30)

 

StarfishSaver

(18,486 posts)
41. Obama was accused of being a grievance candidate and a grievance president every time he talked
Mon Jul 1, 2019, 10:28 AM
Jul 2019

about race.

The truth is that too many white people are still VERY uncomfortable talking about race and they only want it brought up and talked about when and in the context and language that brings them absolutely no discomfort and even if the discussion starts off ok for them, they want it halted the minute they no longer like the way it's going.

But any meaningful discussion of race that is to result in more than just affirmation that everyone is doing it perfect is going to bring some unease. Assuming that you can talk about it without it or that that unease is somehow equivalent to being called a racist or a bad person is a problem and it's a problem that people are going to have to address and overcome if they really want to get anywhere. And attacking people who do bring it up because we didn't bring it up when and talk about it the way that ensures that no white person feels uncomfortable - and being expected to apologize or "make amends" for doing so - is a non-starter.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

customerserviceguy

(25,183 posts)
31. Well, then
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 08:58 PM
Jun 2019

Given your track record, the next stunt will probably work.

And while there is still a dispute as to how much Sen. Harris went up in the polls, or if the rise lasts, it can't be disputed that she raised millions of dollars from it, with which to pay for more ads, etc. I'd call that working for her.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
33. She got half the vote in 2008, in spite of the media's relentless narrative that she was
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 09:02 PM
Jun 2019

doing diabolical things.

She should be proud of herself for being a good enough candidate to do so well, while facing such an impossible landscape.

And speaking for myself, supporting Hillary's 2008 campaign for president was the proudest experience of my life.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Mme. Defarge

(8,051 posts)
35. Thank you for sharing your experience and insight.
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 09:44 PM
Jun 2019

As I have already admitted, I have been wrong about many things in my life.

Peace,
MD

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

njhoneybadger

(3,910 posts)
36. It was a cheap shot against Joe and people won't forget it so easily
Sun Jun 30, 2019, 11:48 PM
Jun 2019

i agree with your prediction

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

cwydro

(51,308 posts)
39. Isn't it "pedal pushers?" As in pedals on a bike?
Mon Jul 1, 2019, 05:36 AM
Jul 2019

And what’s wrong with them anyway?

I think Harris will be fine.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»I predict that Harris' ca...