Democratic field readies for the big shrink

The winnowing process is about to begin.

By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO 07/08/2019 05:00 AM EDT

With the first debates and two quarters of fundraising behind them, strategists with the leading Democratic campaigns and party operatives are beginning to rethink the conventional narrative of the 2020 primary.

Gone is the expectation of a massive candidate pile-up when the early states begin voting, and a long, drawn-out primary. Few are worried anymore about the prospect of a brokered convention. Instead, the campaigns are revising their strategic outlooks to account for a field that is dramatically winnowed well before Iowa voters go to the caucuses — perhaps to as few as eight candidates on Feb. 3.

By Super Tuesday, some expect between one and three candidates will be left standing.

“I’ve long believed it will winnow down substantially come Thanksgiving,” said Mike McCauley, a South Carolina-based strategist who worked on Barack Obama and John Kerry’s presidential campaigns. “I haven’t seen anybody to cause me to reconsider that. And if anybody is hanging on through Iowa outside the top six, we’re talking about a cabinet tryout or vanity.”

Interviews with more than a half-dozen campaigns — none of which would go on record — and with dozens of other operatives, party officials and activists reveal an expectation that the upcoming debate in July will set in motion the initial culling of the 23-candidate field. Candidates who fall flat on the stage a second time, or fail to get traction, will see their finances dry up and be forced to exit. Those who fail to make the September debate — when the criteria for entry will be even higher than the first two debates — will be the next to go as their campaigns are denied the necessary oxygen to survive.

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https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/08/2020-democratic-candidates-1399458