How much a candidate can bench press?

Why don't they survey "this candidate's position on issue X most closely matches mine" or something? Probably because, since the media is focusing primarily on the horse race and gaffes and zingers, most casual voters aren't familiar with most candidate's positions. (Not true of a candidate's committed supporters or many folks here at DU, but we don't always get picked in random surveys)

Most strong among Democrats. Pretty simple and clear...unless you’re all about going negative on Harris at every opportunity.

So CBS took a poll that measured how strong a candidate's support was (versus voters who are ambivalent)? Again, I would rather see issues focused polls- healthcare, student debt, a living wage, the environment, etc.

...along with 'matchup' prospects against Trump.

of his three closest rivals:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287207768

...when some voters determine the nature and scope of the measure? What happens to electability, in that case? Perceptions about this can shift as fast as they did for Barack Obama.

Lots of variables behind that question, and oodles of time to influence it.

your OP was about was NOT the electability question.

...just calling him 'electable' tells us next to nothing about his prospects outside of polling.Tell me something concrete behind that measure. Is it experience? Is it his record?

I think it's mostly virtue of his standing in the polls, which had better be rocking something concrete underneath to sustain it beyond popularity 100+ days out from the election.

Link to tweet

The initial graphic didn't explain that.

...something that can round out support as the campaign progresses.

I think this would be a desirable measure for any campaign.

I think Trump is afraid of her, of all the candidates. She acts like a prosecutor and I think she unnerves him bigly. I think if she were our candidate and she was in a debate with him he would not dare walk around in back of her like he did with HRC.

of beating Trump, and there Biden had a clear, wide lead over his three closest rivals:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287207768

...or will there come a point where voters perceive the candidate as less forceful than Trump?

...

it several months from now. As much as I love Elizabeth Warren, I don't think she'd be as strong against an asshole like Trump as the other 4 candidates on that list. I'm also guessing that Steve Bullock could eventually move up into a list such as that one.

mean strength as a candidate in terms of beating Trump, because they polled on that separately:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287207768

...this was more specific. 'Electability' is a nebulous and dynamic measure. Shifts in polling, for instance, can move that perception and measure, like when Obama went from 'less electable' to favored.

I wonder how a candidate would fare over the long run with such a dedicated hatemonger if viewed as less forceful than Trump.

people aren't sure what is meant by "strong" in this poll.

And Biden's won consistently when people are polled about which of the Democrats they consider most electable. Just as he's done best of all the Democratic candidates against Trump in almost all the head-to-head matchups pollsters have tested.

...than say, 'experience' or polling numbers, which likely fleshes out this measure.

How did Biden end up behind on this important attribute?

the words used by the pollsters in their questions?

The ONLY question the pollsters asked that equated with "perceived strength against Trump" was the question about how likely a candidate was to beat him.

And again, Biden won that by a wide margin.

Please stop trying to twist "strong" into "strong against Trump."

As I've said elsewhere, Harris has been focusing on toughness as her image.

That does not equate with being able to beat Trump, or being perceived as most able to beat Trump.

...it's a combination of factors for voters.

That's not 'twisting' it's a fact. At this early point in the election campaign, 'electability is mostly a result of polling, elevating a candidate, like Joe Biden in what pollsters call a feedback loop.

Alex Seitz-Wald writes about this:

...many argue that perceptions of electability are driven largely by national media coverage, creating what analyst Nate Silver called a "feedback loop" and Washington Post media critic Margaret Sullivan dubbed a "self-perpetuating effect."

Some pundits and voters say one candidate — former Vice President Joe Biden — is the most electable, so they tell pollsters they want Biden, which produces media coverage that reinforces the idea that Biden is most electable, which then filters back down to voters concerned about "electability."

"In the old days, it wouldn't matter, but now the national narrative is seeping into voters' conscious in a way it hasn't before," Murray said. "So their answers when pollsters call is based on the national narrative, which then feeds back into the national narrative."

Btw, I can guarantee you that if Harris ever starts showing up as most electable in polls, her supporters will stop complaining that electability is a bad question or an unfair question to ask, or iunfair to women and POC, etc.

...as I said above, Barack Obama, a relative unknown at this point in his election, was also considered far less 'electable' early in the campaign.

If Harris starts leading on that question we'll know, for instance, that it's not due to her being Barack Obama's VP.


Why is Biden trailing on perceived strength, polling worse than two other candidates?

And Harris is no Obama.

...Kamala Harris certainly is not Barack Obama.

I dislike the prosecutorial style.

Also that Style of railroading Franken

I prefer public defenders.

to be seen as president.

question...Biden...75% of folks think he can beat Trump...no one else is even close...Harris will not get the nomination and would only have a 50 50 chance of beating Trump if by some way she did...I would vote for her but...

That Biden is the only one who can win. It's NOT a fact, just another opinion.

My opinion is that there are a lot of our candidates that can win against trump. I think it will be Harris, but I will vote for the nominee no matter who it is. It's a long time till the first primary, and things WILL change. The people will vote, and we will have a nominee. I hated it in 2016 when the Bernie bros kept pushing the "he is the ONLY one who can beat trump, and using the same messaging isn't helping Biden, but like I said, it's just my opinion!

However, the post you're criticizing was accurate in pointing out more of the Dems polled felt Biden had a good chance of beating Trump than felt the same about other Democratic candidates.

And besides Biden usually leading, and usually by a wide margin, when Dems are polled about which of our candidates they think are most electable, there are the polls of head-to-head match-ups against Trump. Polls that include independents and Republicans as well as Democrats.

Biden tends to do better against Trump in those polls, too. Some of which show one or a few other Democratic candidates would also beat Trump, but some that show he's the only Democrat who beat Trump in that poll.

The same can't be said about any of his rivals, at this point.

The polls might change.

But since none of us have access to future polls, we have to consider the poll data we have now.

Demsrule86, you and several other Biden supporters have been using the "he is the only one who can win" line for some time now. It's not true, it's simply an opinion like I stated to Demsrule86.

As for polls, they have been changing for some time now. Biden, even though he is still on top of most polls, has been going "down" in the polls, and Harris and Warren have been going "up".

The key word in what you are saying is "some". Not all polls are showing that Biden is the "only" one that can beat trump. As time goes on, and we have more debates, those number will change, and as some drop out others will pick up more supporters, and the numbers will change, again, and again.

Nobody has a lock on the nomination, no matter how hard supporters try say otherwise, that is a fact. The only thing that should be a given is that we all have to come together and back the nominee, no matter who that is.

Again this is just my opinion.

suggesting he has the best chance of winning. That's not the same thing as saying he's the only one.

I don't know if any of those other Biden supporters have ever said he's the only one who can win. I don't keep track of their posts that much, but I can't offhand recall anyone saying that.

Nor have I said that Biden has "a lock on the nomination." And I don't recall anyone else saying that.

I wouldn't say that, because it wouldn't make sense, this far out.

But I pay attention to the data available, and right now the polls are providing the most important data we have.

I agree completely that we all have to come together and back the nominee.

I'll admit our candidates' policy differences make me worry sometimes about whether we can unify.

But I'm a pragmatist, and I believe most politicians are, too. Even if their most die-hard supporters might think compromises are impossible, most politicians can find workable compromises if they're necessary.

And IMO if Biden is elected and there's a lot of public support for MFA, and enough political leverage to pass that legislation, I think it's possible he'll take those factors into account and try for it.

And IMO if Warren or Sanders is elected and there isn't enough support for MFA but there is enough for a public option added to the ACA, I think they'd try for the public option, rather than giving up on any improvement if they can't get MFA.

At least I hope so.

The most important thing is getting Trump out of the White House.

The only ones who wouldn't unite, were never really Democrats to begin with.

You may have notice we have a troll problem once again, and they will keep coming in and doing their best to divide us. We can't let that happen. They will do the same things they did in 2016, "claim" to support one candidate, bash other candidates, and stir things up. I already see a lot of new posters showing up in threads and trying their best to start arguments. Discussion is normal, but when posters come in and all they do is post negative things about our candidates, or our elected leaders, we need to report them, and not fall for their games.

Once again this is my opinion.

based on nothing...and it is online too...

Look what happened after the first debate. Warren and Harris have seen their number going up, and Biden has actually seen a drop in his numbers, even though he is still on top.

There are polls all over the place that say different things, have different candidates leading, or tied, so how do you chose which poll is the most accurate? Seems like most people pick the one that is best for the narrative their candidate is the best choice. Time will tell, and in my "opinion", the polls mean nothing this far from the first primary.

It all comes down to how well the candidates can convince the voters that they are the right one to get the job done, that is getting rid of trump. I am looking forward to the next debates to see who can do the best job of convincing me they should get my vote. Right now it's Harris who has my vote, but that could change.

Biden can win a general there...I don't see any of the other candidates able to do this...they have all run left and MFA is a deal breaker.

for her, which you'd expect when she was AG there (in California Biden was next, at 21%, followed by Warren at 19% and Sanders at 16%). Other states had her "strong" number closer to Biden's, and in one state Biden was ahead in that category/trait.

...to have Biden leading in other categories, but not this important one.

We'll want voters to regard our nominee as strong, or forceful against Trump, especially when he gets his hate-machine cranked up.

I guess that's one you don't want to give much attention to.

Black voters consider Biden the most authentic candidate.

And black voters also consider Biden stronger than Harris. They consider Biden the "most strong" candidate.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByVu4fDHYJgVSHlRQWtlanA5MFFNdldVQnR6T2VPWlhFRmdr/view

thanks for that deep dive!

decisively in Biden's favor.

I'd say beating Trump is the same as being forceful against Trump.

Now, if you want to argue that Harris tries very very hard to project a tough image, I'll agree with that.

And the AG background helps, because "strong" is a word very commonly associated with all AGs, unless they're really really bad at their job.

But that doesn't equate with "best chance of beating Trump."

...they also think others can beat him. I don't think anyone should be sanguine about that.

They think Kamala Harris will be the most forceful against him, though. That measure belongs exclusively to her.

I think any candidate would regard that as a desirable distinction. It looks especially good against a relentless demagogue.

"strong against Trump."

You keep adding words to the poll question that weren't there.

And yes, the voters also thought others can beat Trump, but Biden was 25-30% ahead of his rivals there.

As I've already pointed out, the voters polled also think Biden is strong, black voters think Biden is most strong (so you can't say that measure "belongs exclusively to her), and Harris's advantage is mostly a home state advantage in CA, where she was AG.

tend to select their own version of things, instead of admitting there is not just ONE person who can win. We have a great field of candidates, and I can't wait to watch the next debates to see all those candidates on stage explaining their views on the issues.

is that she would do better than most of the others when it comes to standing up to trump, and being able to take all his BS that will get thrown out by trump in the general election. I have watched her in hearings, and she took control and made Barr look like the clown he really is. She will not back down.

Most strong. Ridiculous.

75% of those polled think Biden can beat Trump. Only 46% of respondents believe Harris can beat Trump.

That's the most important number.

It's a major concern, isn't it?

did best there.

The "strong" question was in a separate section of traits that included, for instance, "authentic" -- and Harris was rated lowest there.

So she shines but it is from reflected light? I can understand that...

being asked, and what the pollsters meant by each trait they asked about.

But because Biden did come out ahead on the part of the poll asking specifically about chances of beating Trump, I don't think most, if any of the people answering the question about "strong," thought it meant "strong against Trump" as compared to how strong the other candidates would be against Trump. If they did believe that, the answers there conflicted with the answers on the electability question.