Democratic delegate race tightens -- CBS News Battleground Tracker

While Joe Biden continues to lead all Democratic candidates across early states in the presidential nominating process, his previously large advantage has shrunk since June, according to the latest estimates from the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll and delegate model.

While poll percentages in each state often attract attention, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is ultimately a fight for delegates at the party's national convention next July. The party is set to seat 3,768 delegates at the convention in Milwaukee, and a candidate needs to win at least 1,885 delegates to win the nomination.

We estimate that Biden currently has 581 delegates in the nominating contests through Super Tuesday, which is considerably fewer than his estimate last month. This is based on our model, which translates voter preferences into district- and state-level estimates, taking into account Democratic party allocation rules. Delegates are given out proportionally to top finishers in each district and statewide.


Meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren's estimate has improved to 430 delegates, significantly reducing the gap between her and Biden. She does particularly well with college graduates, politically engaged voters and very liberal Democrats.

Bernie Sanders is currently in third place with 249 delegates. His estimate has dropped since last month. While he's kept most of his supporters, he hasn't done quite as well at retaining them, particularly college-educated Democrats: one in 10 of his supporters from June now say Warren is their top choice.

Kamala Harris is currently in fourth with 173 delegates. Although her vote share across these states is one point higher than Sanders' share, delegates are what counts, and Sanders is picking them up in more places, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/early-contests-by-the-numbers-delegate-race-tightens-in-cbs-news-2020-battleground-tracker/