Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumBusiness Insider Power Rankings: Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders, Harris
As of July 19, Business Insider considers these candidates most likely to win the nomination, in order.
1. Biden
2. Buttigieg
3. Warren
4. Sanders
5. Harris
6. Castro
7. Booker
They list all the candidates right down to Gravel at #22. Their predictions fluctuate regularly: they recently had Harris at #1. Buttigieg got a big bump because of his quarterly fundraising total.
Methodology, subjective reasoning and other rankings here:
https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-democratic-presidential-primary-power-ranking-2019-4
Can't say I agree with them on all the rankings--they're more optimistic than I am about my preferred candidate's odds--but it gave me a boost and is a good read.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
secondwind
(16,903 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)He is similarly on the moderate side, closer to Biden than to Sanders/Warren. But he is sharper on his feet than Biden, and gives more cogent answers to questions. One has to battle being called too old, the other has to battle being called too young, I'm not sure who comes out ahead on that one. Name recognition/experience still obviously favors Biden by a lot, and he also has the advantage of huge support from the African American community. So I don't think Pete is positioned for a knockout, but I think he can definitely make substantial inroads.
Yeah, I know, he's gay. But in many parts of the country, people are more likely to know a gay person than a black person... and we managed to elect a black person.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
femmedem
(8,204 posts)And this: "...in many parts of the country, people are more likely to know a gay person than a black person
and we managed to elect a black person."
I hadn't considered that--I live in a diverse neighborhood of a diverse city--but I think you are right.
Edited to add: I think he's more progressive than people give him credit for because he explains his progressive ideas in terms conservatives can respond to. I am a Warren style Democrat--and I may well end up voting for her in the primary--and, like her, I think in terms of social justice. I think that Pete holds those same values but frames them by talking about faith and patriotism. It isn't what lights a fire under most of us Democrats, but I think it would help in those rust belt swing states in the general election.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden