voters, showing a reversal of the "inroad" the article says Harris made in the support for Biden.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287210876

Harris has no more support from black voters, in that poll, than Sanders or Warren. All of whom have less than 1/5 the support from black voters that Biden has.

You can question WHY the lead exists, but It's silly to challenge the fact it DOES exist.

CONSERVATIVES: I disagree there is a 10 run lead.
PROGRESSIVES: It only looks like a 10 run lead. But it isn't really. And it won't last.
EVERYONE ELSE: 10 more runners have crossed the plate. It's a fuckin' 10 run lead.

unfavorable.

Harris has 43% favorable to 18% unfavorable.

So of the black voters with an opinion of Biden, fewer than 1/4 have an unfavorable opinion of him. (21% of 85% total)

Of the black voters with an opinion of Harris, nearly 1/3 have an unfavorable opinion of her. (18% of 61% total)

And that's AFTER her attacks on him designed to damage his support among black voters.

Since the latest poll shows her support slipping back to where it had been earlier, and his rising back to where it had been before she got a short-lived bounce from attacking him, I think the question about how fragile his support is among black voters has been answered.

For now, anyway.

Pinning one's hope on a single poll, even the "latest" single poll is not really advisable.

But, why argue? There are polls showing Harris gaining support among black voters. There are polls showing Biden remaining strong with black voters. Overtime, a clearer picture of the electorate will emerge.

If I were a betting man, I would bet that Harris' support among black voters will go up as she gets more national exposure. That will most certainly erode Biden's support with those voters.

Warren 5%
An enviable position by an standards

See what I did there? I didn't try to unskew a poll just because it showed another candidate doing well.

Why can't people just as easily accept that the favorability results amongst black voters in the NEW Economist/YouGov poll has Harris also doing well?

Who said $1000 a month can't buy love?

Then I read the poster. No suprises there.

the new poll results were posted in an OP's subject line here.

True to form I'd say. Don't let facts get in the way of a polemic.

Latest Economist/YouGov Poll
Black voters favorability results:

Joe Biden
Very Favorable 37%
Somewhat Favorable 27%
Somewhat Unfavorable 10%
Very Unfavorable 11%
Don't Know 19%

Kamala Harris
Very Favorable 25%
Somewhat Favorable 18%
Somewhat Unfavorable 12%
Very Unfavorable 6%
Don't Know 38%

These results show Harris in a much stronger light, don't they?

It's almost as if Kamala Harris' support among black voters is approaching that of Joe Biden's.


.

compared with their previous one from 13% to 9%.

NAACP convention:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287210981


And that apparently deliberate oversight was in addition to using an OLD poll, AFTER the new poll was out.

Of course the new poll completely undercut the false argument the article is making.

As I already pointed out in my first reply here.

Yeah, it was. And yes today's poll has different numbers.

Oh, and what was it that 538 said people should do with polls to average out random/sampling fluctuations in their results?

Average them?

But heh, lets look at the internals again of the NEW poll:

Black voters favorability results:


Joe Biden
Very Favorable 37%
Somewhat Favorable 27%
Somewhat Unfavorable 10%
Very Unfavorable 11%
Don't Know 19%

Kamala Harris
Very Favorable 25%
Somewhat Favorable 18%
Somewhat Unfavorable 12%
Very Unfavorable 6%
Don't Know 38%

Those numbers from the NEW poll make it seem that Harris' support amongst black voters is approaching that of Biden's, right?

"You're wrong again, and I've already replied to your misusing those numbers"

Those are ACCURATE numbers from the NEW poll you said we should be paying attention to.

And by "misusing those numbers", do you mean accurately posting them to show how favorable black responders in the poll viewed Biden and Harris?

C'mon mam, as Joe Biden would say. Those are the numbers from the NEW poll.

for Harris -- numbers in a poll that's also showing her black support sliding and his rising -- are somehow helpful in your argument that his support among blacks is fragile and she's getting close to his level of support.

If you want to go by favorable numbers alone, then I suppose you could join Sanders supporters in touting a recent Gallup poll showing Sanders having the highest favorable numbers of any Democratic candidate.

Of course, those favorable numbers don't change the fact that Sanders is polling in 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place. But I have seen tweets from desperate Sanders supporters insisting the Gallup poll shows Sanders is really the best nominee.

And btw, if you want to check favorable/unfavorable, and a poll uses "very" and "somewhat" to add a couple of additional numbers, it's always best to add up both favorable and both unfavorable numbers to get the totals for each. "Somewhat" and "very" are too vague, and one person's "somewhat" might be another person's "very." People ARE quite clear about whether their opinions of a candidate are favorable or unfavorable, though.

We will see how those number change over the coming months.

But then, so am I, right?

I think we both have stated our positions clearly enough by this point.
Thanks for keeping our discussion to politics and polls and not injecting a personal element into it.
Too many people seem to slip into that mode, and it degrades the conversation.

Thanks for the discussion.

support to go all the way to the White House.

Remember I said that in the OP? I didn't make a prediction either way, I was purposely neutral.

I did point out that the 1994 Crime Bill will obviously be a huge issue, perhaps THE huge issue, in the next debate.

It's obvious Booker is going to pound on it. Harris will probably get jabs in about it. De Blasio, having pointed out in the last debate he has a black son, will definitely attack Biden too. I don't think anyone would disagree with this assessment.

That said, a strong showing by Biden would move him back up into the high 30%'s, maybe even the 40% support range.

A weak performance could sink him 5-10%, allowing a new frontrunner to emerge.

Maybe the entire debate will be a push and nothing substantial will change in the polls afterwards.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

of a reasonable explanation by Joe. Booker's smart enough to know he won't win over the audience by bullying an elder statesman. Booker has to protect his future in the Democratic Party. There will be another chance for him in the years to come if he doesn't overplay his hand.

And he knows it, too. The crime bill did not change the rate of incarceration which had been rising since the 70s. Talk about hyperbole.

Here's the fact:

Link to tweet

Biden's poll results show him having the most support among black voters, so far.

So Harris being as warmly received was a good sign for Harris too.