Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum*****Texas G.E. Beto 49% Trump 39%. No other Dem beats him by more than two*****
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20190730_TX.pdf
If Beto could really carry the Lone Star State that would be reason enough to nominate him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,360 posts)If he could break out with a very strong debate performance, I think he could hang in there.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hlthe2b
(102,360 posts)Winning one primary is obviously not enough.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)There's been lone star talk there about the Fed's coming down, using eminent domain to tear up good land for the border wall. No swing is ever even but TX may be closer than people think, Certainly the DNC has an eye on them.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
hlthe2b
(102,360 posts)Texas and several other states but since the primary is so front-loaded, Super Tuesday could very well decide it all. Texas alone would not be enough. If he makes a splash and gets more name recognition in this set of debates he could start to break out. He has time between now and March 3.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)and wins back no other, that's 270.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
hlthe2b
(102,360 posts)It is a promising finding, but we don't get to coronate him based on a single poll.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)The DNC has put a debate in Houston.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
hlthe2b
(102,360 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)imagining a sold blue sweep from Washington to Texas. If it ever happens, 'The Trump Wall' will have played a part. It's the scenario the GOP has feared for years. W and McCain were onto it - but Trump wants his white votes.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Indygram
(2,113 posts)Everyone will be able to go to bed early.
Beto has Texas Independents on lock. They can vote in the primary. Too bad Democrats keep trying to push their BEST shot out of the race.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
secondwind
(16,903 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,035 posts)than the Democratic electorate overall.
Looking at other internals... Checking the question on preference in the primary, I see that Biden nearly ties O'Rourke (and is way ahead of all the other Dems) when Democrats were asked about their preference (26.5% O'Rourke, 24.4% Biden). Most of O'Rourke's advantage over Biden is from suppprt among independents (69.5%).
I'm looking at FiveThirtyEight's page on the Texas primary.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/texas/
This new poll looks like an outlier.
A YouGov poll in mid-July had Biden leading O'Rourke 27% to 17%.
An earlier YouGov poll from early June had Biden ahead of him 23% to 15%.
A Quinnipiac poll in early June (the highest rated poll there) had Biden leading O'Rourke 30% to 16%.
Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if any more state polls show O'Rourke doing this well.
That Quinnipiac poll in June had Biden the only Democrat beating Trump
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287140598
and in that poll O'Rourke lost to Trump, 45% to 48%.
https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625
Editing to add that the RCP Democratic primary poll average for Texas has Biden leading O'Rourke by more than 10 points
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-6875.html
and their page for Texas general election polls has Biden beating Trump by 2.5 points and O'Rourke losing to him by 1.5.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Texas.html
O'Rourke still does better against Trump than any other Democrat except Biden.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)Most of the polls coming out of Texas for the primary don't show the reality. Beto DELIVERED young voters. He has proven he can turn those voters out. Early voting for young voters was up 500% in Texas. Young people who see and hear him speak often end up volunteering and going all in because he inspires and motivates them. Beto wins Independents against Trump in the poll too, but Biden doesn't. Canvassers on the ground in Texas actually show Beto even stronger than this poll indicates because they are knocking on all doors and even talking to Republicans.
Beto is the only one who can turn Texas blue.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,035 posts)be interesting to see if any later polls back it up.
And no matter how well O'Rourke is polling in Texas, he isn't doing well nationally, or in polls of other states.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indygram
(2,113 posts)Texas has 228 delegates.
Iowa has 41
NH has 24
SC has 54
Polls mean nothing. Votes do. Beto almost doubled turnout for midterm year.
Beto has an army of volunteers on the ground in Texas knocking on doors. They have a better idea of what's going on with voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
essadaw
(185 posts)In this poll, Beto is crushing it with Independents/Lean D. He wins them 69.5% in the democratic primary portion of the poll when Independents/Lean D are broken out (Bernie next at 8.4% and Biden at 5.1%) . With straight D, Beto still is the highest at 26.5% but not by much.
Since there is such huge differences in independents in this poll and seen by canvassing teams on the ground, how a pollster weighs independents vs. those with a history of voting in the democratic primary will make a difference in the results.
And this makes sense to me, since Beto came very close in Texas by getting support from unlikely sources --huge youth and POC turnout in a midterm and simultaneously winning over many independents and moderate Republicans. I would expect Biden's support to be based in Democratic party loyalists.
I look forward to more Texas polls. If we win Texas in the general, it is game over for Trump and a huge hit to the Republican party.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Indygram
(2,113 posts)Canvassing teams in Texas have Beto whooping Trump's ASS in Texas, even in red districts and even with Republicans. No one else can do this.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
dalton99a
(81,578 posts)In metropolitan areas it's hard to drive a block or so without seeing one. People who voted for him still keep the stickers
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
efhmc
(14,732 posts)not pull in other states.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Agschmid
(28,749 posts)We shouldnt forget that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
essadaw
(185 posts)I know it is hard for those of us on this forum to believe, but Cruz actually has a lot of support in Texas. Many Texas Republicans LOVE him. Cruz beat Trump soundly in the Republican primary. Trump, while popular with most Texas Republicans, has less support than Cruz. Texas has some Republicans that identify as Bush Republicans and some of these did vote for Beto over Cruz and more will vote for Beto over Trump.
Beto outperformed both Hillary and Obama in ruby red Texas in a MIDTERM and came close to flipping Texas. Historically, Texas Democratic performance in a midterm is abysmal.
We need a candidate in the general who can outperform Hillary's 2016 results. With a less popular opponent in Trump and presidential year turnout, Beto can flip Texas. Game over for the GOP.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Tipperary
(6,930 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Indygram
(2,113 posts)None of the others would have elected 17 black female judges.
None of the others would have helped flip the house
None of the others would have increased youth early voting by 500%
None of the others would have gotten MORE votes than any other Democrat in the history of the state.
And NONE of the others can turn Texas blue. Beto can.
Most of the candidates can't even re-secure the "blue wall" either.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)looking at GE polling now is senseless.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasAggieDemocrat12
(14 posts)for the eventual nominee to consider putting Beto on the ticket. I'm not sure it would be my personal preference but a Biden/Beto ticket would probably be game over for the GOP.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
5starlib
(191 posts)Biden can win PA and Beto can TX. No other Dem can flip a state with almost certainty besides those two. Warren, Harris, and Sanders can't guarantee any state will flip from red to blue.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,558 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden