but michigan, wisconsin, and ohio are possible.

Looking at 2016’s 270 to win, Texas alone, had it flipped and we’d have Hillary Clinton as President.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.. had all 3 flipped we’d have had the same result.. any combination of 2 of those and still wouldn’t have.

Beto does have every bit as much chance of flipping any combination of those in addition to actually putting Texas into play.

Also consider, win or lose Texas in the GE, Beto being on the ticket would force tRumpublicans to pour a SHITLOAD of their money into Texas, a state they normally don’t have to invest into for GE’s. That’s less money going to the rest of the battleground states.

It still gets the candidate to 270 with Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump only won Pennsylvania by 1 percent compared to 9 percent in Ohio.

Trump approval in Texas 41%

So more of a shift in resources. Talking big money here...not giving up on 50 state strategy

strong individuals . . .

Both being from Texas? Like each needs a match who can insure a win in the big three we "lost" MI WI PA

So there's that.

...closer than most folks thought possible and that was a midterm election. Now he not only has the base he built to begin his campaign he also has the advantage of the increased public interest of a general election. I think he can win Texas. I have mixed feelings about him running, but he reminds me a lot of Barack Obama who I also had mixed feelings about due to his limited experience. He proved good values and the ability to think independently were more important than experience in national politics.

I'm supporting the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is.

In Texas that counts for a lot.

This state has an unhealthy level of Nationalistic style state pride. A “Texan” running against an unpopular “New Yorker” that already pissed off a lot of his base here with the attacks on Cruz’s family (Texas doesn’t forget is a popular saying, along with Don’t mess with Texas) definitely has an advantage.. That little 3 point gap listed below would very much be surmountable.

Consider:
Cruz trounced orange hitler 43.8% to 26.7% - 17 points.
Against Beto in 2018, Cruz did win, but by 50.9% to 48.3% - less than 3 points.

As long as Beto isn’t forced to formally state a highly unpopular stance (in Texas) by your candidate of choice, thereby energizing the Republican base against him, he most definitely CAN flip Texas. Beto has, and would also provide a lot of downticket energy, especially in battleground states/districts.

yet he performed much better than anyone expected and energized state voters...

Was on the rise and Cruz MIA. But then the smear machine kicked in. You could see it happen...all the Facebook low info wingnuts posting trash on Beto over and over. It works and it's very effective! Whoever we pick needs to figure out a way to combat.

It's Texas, which has been deep red for basically forever. The fact that he came within a few points is astonishing and bodes well for him in states that are far less red.

Beto lost by 2.6% when we had a very weak candidate for governor. The State Party worked hard to get one of the Castro brothers to run for Governor but the Castros chickened out. If we had some more help at the top of the ticket, Beto could have done even better. Texas will have higher turnout for a POTUS election and so Beto could flip Texas

The state party is very proud of Beto

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Beto could put Texas into play

Link to tweet

Beto will help speed up the process

Bernie will flip Vermont because he is so pure.

Last edited Thu Mar 14, 2019, 07:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I woke up to see an e-mail from Beto. I got to talk to Beto at the National Convention just briefly. In early 2017, Beto spoke to a small group at a tavern in my county. My son and I got to see Beto up close and he is amazing. I made a couple of rallies and heard him at the state convention. Beto is perhaps the best retail politician that I have seen since President Obama.

I like Beto a great deal and Beto could flip Texas which is a goal that I have been working towards for a very long time. I am still torn between Beto, Biden and Harris but my main goal is anyone but sanders.

Link to tweet

Phenomenal in my mind. It was a beautiful night...young and old all mixed together sitting in lawn chairs in the park with the city skyline across the river. All waiting for him. It was a night I won't forget. A high like I remember when masses of people from every walk of life were streaming together into Obama's first inauguration in DC.

I attended one rally in my county but I was far in the back

Currently the logical Trump margin in Texas would be 1-3 points with Beto at nominee, compared to 5-7 points against any other Democrat.

There is no chance Trump ignores a state where the margin is that tight, especially after seeing the Hillary examples in the upper midwest.

Trump approval was 49-49 in the 2018 Texas exit poll. But that's an older whiter electorate than a presidential year would feature. I would estimate it would have dropped to 46 or 47% approval if the same day held a presidential race instead of midterm. Trump's approval on 538 that day was 41.8%. That is a good barometer to estimate where Trump stands going forward. We really need to keep him at 42% or nearby. He would be a considerable underdog at that number, not in Texas but nationally.

Texas has 43-44% self-identified conservatives, as I mention all the time. We really can't pretend to win states in a balanced national environment unless that number drops to 37 or 38 at highest. However, Texas does hold some positive trends that are typical of states on the verge of moving in our direction. Self-identified moderates in Texas have voted more Democratic than the national average. It was 54-39 for Hillary in Texas 2016 compared to 52-40 nationally. Moderates were 65-34 for Beto in Texas compared to 62-36 in the national House exit poll.

Small positive variances are huge. I remember the same thing from Virginia and Colorado and Nevada. Before the number of conservatives begins to drop, and number of liberals starts to rise, the moderates demonstrate a tilt in the blue direction. That's how some states can hold a brief period of being more competitive than the liberal/conservative split would indicate, at first glance.

However, if a counter trend attaches and the liberal/conservative split does not change, the moderate voting trend will not continue in the same direction. It levels out. Basically we can't count on moderates to overcome a huge deficit in that liberal/conservative split.

Beto could put Texas into play

Link to tweet