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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Gothmog

(145,374 posts)
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 04:17 PM Aug 2019

Washington Post-Analysis: Is Iowa no longer feelin' the Bern?

If sanders fails to win any delegates in Iowa, he may be finished



The Monmouth University poll is the second since the first Democratic presidential primary debate to show him dropping into the single digits in Iowa. At 9 percent, he trails former vice president Joe Biden (28 percent), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (19) and Sen. Kamala D. Harris (11) — albeit within the margin of error against Harris.

Sanders did fare significantly better in a third recent Iowa poll, though, taking 19 percent in a CBS News/YouGov survey a few weeks ago, and his national polling has also been relatively stable after dropping earlier in the summer. Monmouth’s poll also includes a slightly older sample than showed up for the 2016 caucuses, which might depress the numbers of a candidate like Sanders, who does so well with younger voters. So it’s worth waiting to see if more quality Iowa polling shows a similar decline. (It’s also possible Iowa voters are tuning in earlier than other voters, given they hold the first contest, and don’t mirror the nation as a whole.)

But if the new poll is close to accurate, it’s not a great omen. As with the Suffolk University poll a month ago that also put Sanders at 9 percent, this one shows relatively few Iowa voters have him as either their first or second choice. In this poll, another 8 percent name Sanders as their second choice, meaning he’s the first or second choice of just 17 percent of voters. That’s compared to 40 percent for Biden and 38 percent for Warren.

As I argued last month, this is especially ominous for Sanders given he took nearly 50 percent of the vote in the state in 2016. He was never going to get that much of the vote again, given this is a crowded field instead of a two-candidate field, but he’d probably hope to at least be a leading option for lots of voters early in the process. In both this new poll and the Suffolk poll, he’s either tied or trailing South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg on first- and second-choice voters.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
27 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Washington Post-Analysis: Is Iowa no longer feelin' the Bern? (Original Post) Gothmog Aug 2019 OP
pleading the fifth Skittles Aug 2019 #1
... NurseJackie Aug 2019 #11
'SUP NurseJackie? Skittles Aug 2019 #13
If Sanders fails in Iowa, he fails 2020Junker Aug 2019 #2
If he gets in single digits in Iowa, he might drop out and Funtatlaguy Aug 2019 #4
I'd wait until after NH before declaring an official time of death for the campaign (n/t) 2020Junker Aug 2019 #5
:) I'll believe his endorsing any Democrat when it happens. Hortensis Aug 2019 #8
He already filed to run in 2024. MrsCoffee Aug 2019 #16
sanders will not drop out but we can hope to hold sanders to less than 300 delegates Gothmog Aug 2019 #24
KR! Cha Aug 2019 #3
I know for sure in the Wisconsin primary I will be voting for a candidate elocs Aug 2019 #6
Not finished. He'll go back to his normal gig when the seasonal pass expires dalton99a Aug 2019 #7
RIGGED! RIGGED! betsuni Aug 2019 #9
Ha! NurseJackie Aug 2019 #12
A lot of Biden folks have Sanders as their number 2 pick. Quixote1818 Aug 2019 #10
Most Biden supporters aren't switching to BS with Warren still in the race. n/t Tarheel_Dem Aug 2019 #14
Biden's not going to lose favor.. Cha Aug 2019 #20
I agree Gothmog Aug 2019 #22
"And, I know of no Biden supports who have BS even on their radar." Tarheel_Dem Aug 2019 #25
I agree, Cha peggysue2 Aug 2019 #27
Post removed Post removed Aug 2019 #15
"Almost every email that set off the 'rigged' accusations was from May 2016. Even in the most betsuni Aug 2019 #17
DWS resigned for no reason? Go Vols Aug 2019 #18
There was no rigging. I don't know, I guess she did. betsuni Aug 2019 #19
DWS resigned because we lost the election. brooklynite Aug 2019 #21
Sanders had his chance in '16 and fucked it up Blue_Tires Aug 2019 #23
I liked Bernie in 2016, think he's too old now. Thirties Child Aug 2019 #26
 

2020Junker

(99 posts)
2. If Sanders fails in Iowa, he fails
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 04:34 PM
Aug 2019

Iowa and New Hampshire are ideal environments for his campaign and political message. If he cannot find traction there, South Carolina isn't going to treat him any more kindly.

Should he stumble, the common sense thing for him to do would be to withdraw and endorse Warren - she being closest to him in ideology.

I generally like Bernie. But if Iowa and New Hampshire don't work for him, I don't see a national campaign working anywhere else. Primaries are oftentimes about momentum, real and perceived. He cannot come out of those two states with no momentum and remain viable.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Funtatlaguy

(10,882 posts)
4. If he gets in single digits in Iowa, he might drop out and
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 04:44 PM
Aug 2019

endorse Warren unless his numbers look really good going into New Hampshire.
I think he would prefer she win than Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

2020Junker

(99 posts)
5. I'd wait until after NH before declaring an official time of death for the campaign (n/t)
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 04:46 PM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
8. :) I'll believe his endorsing any Democrat when it happens.
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 05:44 PM
Aug 2019

I've never understood what goes on in the head of someone who thinks I'm little different from Republican voters, but he really, really has always despised Democrats. When someone tells us who they are and shows us who they are, for over 40 years, we should probably believe him.

I can imagine him officially endorsing Establishment Warren but in reality not coordinating with her and using her name to run his own political game. His VT voters seemingly like him calling himself I-Sanders but voting as a +1 to the Democratic caucus.

Also easy to imagine that if he doesn't get enough delegates to be a presence at the convention, which seems increasingly likely, he might refuse to endorse anyone and take his revolution and residual following to the political streets. (His current senate terms ends in 2024, when he'll be 82 or 83, might not worry about reelection.)

"I am Not Now, Nor Have I Ever Been, a Liberal Democrat." ~ Bernie Sanders

I know that, Senator Sanders. Because I am.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MrsCoffee

(5,803 posts)
16. He already filed to run in 2024.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 02:52 AM
Aug 2019

As an Independent.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,374 posts)
24. sanders will not drop out but we can hope to hold sanders to less than 300 delegates
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:01 PM
Aug 2019

I was a delegate to the Philadelphia convention and saw how the process works. One key item is that under the rules, a candidate cannot be put into nomination without 300 delegates. https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2020-Call-for-Convention-WITH-Attachments-2.26.19.pdf

Nomination of the Democratic Candidate for President: The Permanent Chair shall receive nominations from the floor for the Democratic candidate for the Office of President of the United
States in the following manner:

a. Requests to nominate a presidential candidate shall be in writing and shall have affixed thereto the written approval of the proposed nominee and the name of the individuals who shall be recognized to make the nominating and seconding speeches on behalf of a presidential candidate and shall be delivered to the Convention Secretary at a location as specified by the Secretary no later than 6:00 p.m. of the day preceding the day designated for the commencement of presidential nominations.

b. Each such request must be accompanied by a petition indicating support for the proposed nominee signed by delegates representing not less than 300 or more than 600 delegate votes, not more than 50 of which may come from one (1) delegation. A delegate may not sign more than one (1) nominating petition for president and for vice president. Pledged and automatic delegates may sign the petition.

I signed the petition for Clinton in 2016 to put her into nomination but we have over 170 Clinton supporters in the Texas delegation.

If sanders is frozen out of enough states due to the 15% rule and remaining non-Biden delegates are split among several candidates, there is a chance that sanders may not reach 300 threshold
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(297,368 posts)
3. KR!
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 04:35 PM
Aug 2019

Thanks, Goth

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

elocs

(22,588 posts)
6. I know for sure in the Wisconsin primary I will be voting for a candidate
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 05:25 PM
Aug 2019

who is proud to be a member of the Democratic Party rather than one using the party for a presidential run, again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

dalton99a

(81,531 posts)
7. Not finished. He'll go back to his normal gig when the seasonal pass expires
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 05:31 PM
Aug 2019


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

betsuni

(25,552 posts)
9. RIGGED! RIGGED!
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 06:58 PM
Aug 2019

Oh sorry, habit.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Quixote1818

(28,950 posts)
10. A lot of Biden folks have Sanders as their number 2 pick.
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 07:09 PM
Aug 2019

According to polling I have seen. So these numbers could shift extremely fast if Biden loses favor and they switch to Sanders.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/442738-poll-almost-one-third-of-biden-supporters-pick-sanders-as-their

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tarheel_Dem

(31,235 posts)
14. Most Biden supporters aren't switching to BS with Warren still in the race. n/t
Thu Aug 8, 2019, 11:40 PM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(297,368 posts)
20. Biden's not going to lose favor..
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:29 AM
Aug 2019

no matter how much they wish.

And, I know of no Biden supports who have BS even on their radar.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tarheel_Dem

(31,235 posts)
25. "And, I know of no Biden supports who have BS even on their radar."
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 08:36 PM
Aug 2019

I've never met one either. That's not to say they don't exist, but I don't know 'em.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

peggysue2

(10,836 posts)
27. I agree, Cha
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 09:45 PM
Aug 2019

I mean I've been reading this 1st and 2nd business for weeks now as if Biden and Sanders are interchangeable. To me, it makes no sense because I don't know any Biden supporters who would willingly jump on Bernie's bandwagon. And I have to believe the reverse is also true. The two men are completely different politically. And yet these polls keep indicating this shifting contest between the two.

Makes. No. Sense.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to Gothmog (Original post)

 

betsuni

(25,552 posts)
17. "Almost every email that set off the 'rigged' accusations was from May 2016. Even in the most
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:11 AM
Aug 2019

ridiculous of dream worlds, Sanders could not have possibly won the nomination after May 3 -- at that point, he needed 984 more pledged delegates, but there were only 933 available in the remaining contests. ... Sanders supporters were tricked into believing a false narrative. Once only one candidate can win the nomination, of course the DNC gets to work on that person's behalf."

http://www.newsweek.com/myths-cost-democrats-presidential-election-521044

Conspiracy theory.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Go Vols

(5,902 posts)
18. DWS resigned for no reason?
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:15 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

betsuni

(25,552 posts)
19. There was no rigging. I don't know, I guess she did.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 03:26 AM
Aug 2019

Maybe it was a similar situation as Al Franken found himself in.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

brooklynite

(94,624 posts)
21. DWS resigned because we lost the election.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 08:17 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_Tires

(55,445 posts)
23. Sanders had his chance in '16 and fucked it up
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 02:51 PM
Aug 2019

then he had a golden chance (since his campaign never really ended after '16) to get a huge, insurmountable lead on the rest of the field and he fucked that up as well...

It's tragic because if he had people who were at least half smart managing his strategy he'd be president now, but the fact that he hired the same old ideological nutbars who see Dems as the real enemy and not the GOP means nobody has learned shit...

He's done. The best he could possibly hope for now is a Veep slot.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Thirties Child

(543 posts)
26. I liked Bernie in 2016, think he's too old now.
Fri Aug 9, 2019, 08:48 PM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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