Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumRachel Bitecofer, who predicted 2018 blue wave, likes a Biden/Harris ticket for 2020
There have been a number of DU threads both here in the Primaries forum and in GD about Rachel Bitecofer's new analysis of what's likely to happen in 2020, an analysis that's getting a lot of attention because her predictions for 2018 were so accurate.
People have been linking to this Salon article about her
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
and paying less attention to what she actually wrote
http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/
and to her tweets at
https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer
I've had the impression from part of the Salon article and from some replies here that some people think her analysis is an argument against Biden being the nominee. It isn't. She indicates that in this paragraph from her 2020 forecast:
So I checked her Twitter account to see what she might have said there about Biden, and found this thread analyzing why she thinks Biden is likely to get the nomination, and why she thinks Harris would help as his running mate.
The thread starts as a reply to this tweet from someone else who seems hopeful about some poll results that he thinks are bad news for Biden:
Link to tweet
Dr. Bitecofer's reply, followed by more tweets analyzing the primary race:
Link to tweet
This data reflects other data, highly educated liberals have tuned in and made choices early, but the remainder of the electorate remains unsettled.
4 groups, if/when they move in lock step have the power to push the nomination to a certain candidate. In order of strength these are The mainstreams (IE The Moderates), AAs, progressives, young people. Yes, these groups overlap members. Women COULD be a group, but have not shown
a "grouping" behavior in primary elections ever. However, IF women wanted to band together and made a female the nominee, so it would be. Just FYI. But I digress. The next few months will produce a power struggle between these factions. Black voters TEND to break 1 way. BUT we
have never offered black voters a field where they have the type of candidate they traditionally rally behind like Biden AND a female black nominee BC remember, Harris is the very 1st female black nominee!! AND she is sharing space with Booker. And young people don't, at this
point, have a preferred candidate. Sure, the polling data suggests they Bernie, but as I have explained on multiple occasions, this is a product of residual name ID from last cycle. And sure enough, as time wears on, Bernie young people advantage is siphoning off to others. I
thing young people are going to end up scattered about Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, and Sanders as we head into late Winter. This harms their "block" power. They won't have the power they had in 2016 when they marched as one. The progressives are going to rally around Warren,
but as I have explained on other threads, Bernie has a loyal base, and they will not budge until after Super Tuesday and by then it may be too late for Warren. We will see. Perhaps Sanders, and his fans, will be more shrewd. And that leaves the moderates. They are great in #
and unlike in other primaries, they are probably going to turn out and vote. If 2016 was a primary for ideologues, 2020 will be the primary for the centrists. And the centrists see Biden as the best positioned to beat Trump. And the entire electorate is risk adverse. I think the
general sense about Biden is that he is boring and electable. And the truth is, so long as they balance the ticket with a veep like Harris that inspires voters of color and younger voters and taps into the energy of women, they aren't wrong that Biden can win. The danger comes if
they insist on doubling down on the erroneous idea that the path to victory in 2020 lies in converting white working class whites to vote Dem. It DOES NOT. It lies in massive turnout. And that requires inspiration.
I want to add that a lot of people do find Biden inspiring.
I also want to add that as skeptical as Dr. Bitecofer is of a Democrat being able to win back voters who voted for Trump, a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania in May showed Biden doing much, much better with key demographic groups than Hillary Clinton did in 2016:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=120730
Add that sort of appeal to the ticket, and we could be looking at way more than the 278 electoral votes Dr. Bitecofer is predicting for a Democratic win in 2020.
____
Editing to add a couple of tweets from her, posted after the ones above, that show she isn't saying Democrats should move far left for 2020:
Link to tweet
and in response to someone asking her this
Link to tweet
Or, have something to offer that isn't the same old dem platform?
Or, not just anti-trump, never republican?
Or, Progressive!
she tweeted this:
Link to tweet
2. Run as a Democrat & make a + case for liberalism NOT as an embarrassed Democrat bc voters hate weakness & bc you will not be wooing opposition voters to vote for you due to polarization but you WILL be depressing your own turnout.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ancianita
(36,137 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(297,692 posts)time to read this.. Thank You!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ancianita
(36,137 posts)I don't care who shows up to vote for Dems, we just need to know who they are, and nominate someone who Bitecofer really knows want to vote for a good Democrat -- O'Rourke and Abrams enthusiasts, climate change enthusiasts -- the new, young independents!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,657 posts)She said don't worry about winning the moderates, you need to inspire massive turn out from the base. (Which is the exact opposite theory/strategy of the Dem party establishment, who take the base for granted). I believe it was her interview for Salon where she said it would be a mistake to think that turn out will be increased by a nominee who has "personality", rather than inspirational policies that the electorate believes will help them.
A "safe" Status Quo Establishment candidate will not inspire massive turnout.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
highplainsdem
(49,041 posts)about the base.
Editing to add that she does think a more centrist candidate like Biden, if the nominee -- as she seems to think likely -- needs to be balanced with a running mate who will help energize progressives and young voters and black voters. She's said Clinton made a mistake choosing Tim Kaine as a running mate.
I won't argue with her there.
But she definitely is not saying the presidential nominee has to be a progressive. In fact, her prediction for 2020 seemed to be warning a bit against that.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,657 posts)That implies the base is composed of those to the left of the moderates.
If you read her Salon interview, she emphatically states that her data shows the blue wave was due to highly motivated anti-Trump/GOP voters, especially independents (not Trump voting independents, a different group altogether). The Blue Wave was not due to an increased turnout of moderates.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
elleng
(131,129 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JI7
(89,274 posts)democratic and it's more based on race, religion, and other similar groupings than on ideology .
for example black people are the base and this includes moderates, liberals etc. the same with jewish voters, gay voters etc.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)That's why they're the base.
In spite of the reality that some groups, such as the AA monolith, contain a lot of people naturally oriented to be conservative, though, the Democratic Party is strongly dominated by liberals and most members are overall quite similar in ideology and goals. Liberal indies as well.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Ponietz
(3,015 posts)Stop playing for Repuke voteswe wont get them and it depresses Democratic and independent voter turnout.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,041 posts)See my reply in the other thread about her:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287246088#post26
She said that moderates can be appealed to, but Democrats don't do it well. (The remark about it all being about the base followed that.) She's clearly differentiating there between moderates as she''s using that term, and Democrats, which means she's talking about centrist independents.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)independent, and those tend to be flaky and unreliable voters (my words!). Studies show that almost all people, though each is typically a goulash of opinions, average out either liberal or conservative.
Centrists are those on both sides who generally play well with others because democracy requires cooperation and it comes naturally to them; but individually, centrists are usually going to be either moderate conservatives or moderate liberals.
Researchers say there is no personality or political type of "moderate." It'd be like saying you filled a glass with cool or a cup with tepid. Tepid what?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laffy Kat
(16,386 posts)She is simply superb.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BigmanPigman
(51,630 posts)at a dinner a year ago and all of us liked the idea (3 generations of Dems).
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Laffy Kat
(16,386 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
elleng
(131,129 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
NBachers
(17,142 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,578 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Fiendish Thingy
(15,657 posts)"1. Tap into the anti-Trump sentiment
2. Run as a Democrat & make a + case for liberalism NOT as an embarrassed Democrat bc voters hate weakness & bc you will not be wooing opposition voters to vote for you due to polarization but you WILL be depressing your own turnout. "
Example: Biden today came out for $15 min. Wage, not a pragmatic incremental "safe for business" lip service position from campaigns in the not too distant past.
Positions don't have to be "extreme" (which is quite subjective, since $15 min wage was considered extreme just 4 years ago), but they must be clear, firm, and bold. If voters truly believe in a candidate's positions (as opposed to being dazzled by personality) and don't perceive them as just more political malarkey, they will turn out in record numbers, and WE WILL WIN.
On the other hand, if we have a nominee who doesn't run as an "anti-Trump" candidate, but simply "not Trump", and equivocates with unclear policies that don't seem helpful, turn out could be depressed, especially among young voters.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
JI7
(89,274 posts)so it's all about getting turnout in the end. and to prevent republicans from fraud .
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
myohmy2
(3,177 posts)...well that's good, I don't...
...I think a Sanders/Warren ticket would do a much better job cleaning trump's clock and winning the election...
...the pundits we're all wrong last time, can we believe them now?
...if the pukes got that slime-ball trump elected, we should easily be able to elect Bernie and Elizabeth...
...and when we do, we'll have something grand working for us in the White House...we'll then be able to address problems and grievances that we haven't been able to address for generations...
...why settle for a Chevy when you can have a Cadillac?
...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
JI7
(89,274 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
peggysue2
(10,842 posts)Nicely done, highplainsdem. Biden/Harris is my dream ticket to kick Republican ass from here to hell. So . . .Bitecofer's lips to God's ear. And take Joe Biden's tweet to the bank:
We're going to make Trump a one-term president!!!
AGO4JOE&KAMALA2020
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SunSeeker
(51,719 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,041 posts)divide the progressive bloc until it's too late for Warren as well as Sanders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SunSeeker
(51,719 posts)But I do see her continuing to struggle to get the African American vote. Joe already has it and if he taps Harris for VP, he'll have a solid ticket, that I agree with.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
highplainsdem
(49,041 posts)they are, at the moment.
Between the two of them they have a block of progressive support roughly equal to Biden's support, but Warren started out with only a third or so as much support as Sanders and has gradually increased that to about the same level of support or a bit more, depending on which polls you look at.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
littlemissmartypants
(22,819 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
nitpicker
(7,153 posts)I don't think this will happen.
I agree that if the nominee is Biden, and he picks "another white man", there is a risk of a Thump second term.
We NEED turnout to counter the closet Repug turnout.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Skidmore
(37,364 posts)this is the best ticket. So much needs to be repaired here and abroad. I really want some concentration on the Justice. Dept by someone who can oversee such a task knowledgeably.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden