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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts)
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:01 AM Aug 2019

Rachel Bitecofer, who predicted 2018 blue wave, likes a Biden/Harris ticket for 2020

There have been a number of DU threads both here in the Primaries forum and in GD about Rachel Bitecofer's new analysis of what's likely to happen in 2020, an analysis that's getting a lot of attention because her predictions for 2018 were so accurate.

People have been linking to this Salon article about her

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/this-political-scientist-completely-nailed-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/

and paying less attention to what she actually wrote

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

and to her tweets at

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer


I've had the impression from part of the Salon article and from some replies here that some people think her analysis is an argument against Biden being the nominee. It isn't. She indicates that in this paragraph from her 2020 forecast:

Does the Democrat’s nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places. If the nominee is Biden he’d be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate to avoid the critical mistake made by Hillary Clinton in 2016. This is true for any of the white male candidates. If the nominee hails from the progressive wing of the party, it will provoke massive handwringing both within the party and the media that if not controlled could become self-reinforcing. But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020.



So I checked her Twitter account to see what she might have said there about Biden, and found this thread analyzing why she thinks Biden is likely to get the nomination, and why she thinks Harris would help as his running mate.

The thread starts as a reply to this tweet from someone else who seems hopeful about some poll results that he thinks are bad news for Biden:





Dr. Bitecofer's reply, followed by more tweets analyzing the primary race:






Good Q. I will say, this is an Reg voter poll, not a likely voter poll. So a sign. chuck of these DKs may not ever "tune in."

This data reflects other data, highly educated liberals have tuned in and made choices early, but the remainder of the electorate remains unsettled.


4 groups, if/when they move in lock step have the power to push the nomination to a certain candidate. In order of strength these are The mainstreams (IE The Moderates), AAs, progressives, young people. Yes, these groups overlap members. Women COULD be a group, but have not shown


a "grouping" behavior in primary elections ever. However, IF women wanted to band together and made a female the nominee, so it would be. Just FYI. But I digress. The next few months will produce a power struggle between these factions. Black voters TEND to break 1 way. BUT we


have never offered black voters a field where they have the type of candidate they traditionally rally behind like Biden AND a female black nominee BC remember, Harris is the very 1st female black nominee!! AND she is sharing space with Booker. And young people don't, at this


point, have a preferred candidate. Sure, the polling data suggests they Bernie, but as I have explained on multiple occasions, this is a product of residual name ID from last cycle. And sure enough, as time wears on, Bernie young people advantage is siphoning off to others. I


thing young people are going to end up scattered about Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, and Sanders as we head into late Winter. This harms their "block" power. They won't have the power they had in 2016 when they marched as one. The progressives are going to rally around Warren,


but as I have explained on other threads, Bernie has a loyal base, and they will not budge until after Super Tuesday and by then it may be too late for Warren. We will see. Perhaps Sanders, and his fans, will be more shrewd. And that leaves the moderates. They are great in #


and unlike in other primaries, they are probably going to turn out and vote. If 2016 was a primary for ideologues, 2020 will be the primary for the centrists. And the centrists see Biden as the best positioned to beat Trump. And the entire electorate is risk adverse. I think the


general sense about Biden is that he is boring and electable. And the truth is, so long as they balance the ticket with a veep like Harris that inspires voters of color and younger voters and taps into the energy of women, they aren't wrong that Biden can win. The danger comes if


they insist on doubling down on the erroneous idea that the path to victory in 2020 lies in converting white working class whites to vote Dem. It DOES NOT. It lies in massive turnout. And that requires inspiration.




I want to add that a lot of people do find Biden inspiring.

I also want to add that as skeptical as Dr. Bitecofer is of a Democrat being able to win back voters who voted for Trump, a Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania in May showed Biden doing much, much better with key demographic groups than Hillary Clinton did in 2016:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1287&pid=120730


Add that sort of appeal to the ticket, and we could be looking at way more than the 278 electoral votes Dr. Bitecofer is predicting for a Democratic win in 2020.


____


Editing to add a couple of tweets from her, posted after the ones above, that show she isn't saying Democrats should move far left for 2020:






Also keep in mind, Im not saying the path to victory lies in taking extreme positions, I'm saying it starts with making a positive case for your own governing philosophy and inspiring your own voters



and in response to someone asking her this





Does this mean go left?
Or, have something to offer that isn't the same old dem platform?
Or, not just anti-trump, never republican?
Or, Progressive!



she tweeted this:





1. Tap into the anti-Trump sentiment
2. Run as a Democrat & make a + case for liberalism NOT as an embarrassed Democrat bc voters hate weakness & bc you will not be wooing opposition voters to vote for you due to polarization but you WILL be depressing your own turnout.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Rachel Bitecofer, who predicted 2018 blue wave, likes a Biden/Harris ticket for 2020 (Original Post) highplainsdem Aug 2019 OP
Yes, she did, indeed, undercount the Dem wins of the House. Let's hope! ancianita Aug 2019 #1
KR while I take Cha Aug 2019 #2
Heck, no, it's not an argument against Biden. Not at all. It's an argument about strategy -- ancianita Aug 2019 #3
Her one sentence summary on Lawrence was "it's all about the (progressive) base" Fiendish Thingy Aug 2019 #4
You need to read that Twitter thread. And you're addng the word "progressive" to what she says highplainsdem Aug 2019 #5
She specifically said on Lawrence "don't worry about the moderates, inspire the base" Fiendish Thingy Aug 2019 #9
DEMOCRATS elleng Aug 2019 #13
the base includes moderates, liberals, conservatives etc . the base is people that regularly vote JI7 Aug 2019 #17
THIS. Members of the base are solid -- they turn themselves out. Hortensis Aug 2019 #21
+1 Your last sentence sums it up nicely Ponietz Aug 2019 #12
Just listened to her again. She was using "moderate" to mean "centrist independent." highplainsdem Aug 2019 #20
Yes. Or moderate conservatives. Pew says very few are genuinely Hortensis Aug 2019 #25
I do think having Harris on the ticket is a no-brainer. Laffy Kat Aug 2019 #6
I mentioned a Biden /Harris ticket to my family BigmanPigman Aug 2019 #24
There ya go, a sure thing. nt Laffy Kat Aug 2019 #29
Thanks. FASCINATING! elleng Aug 2019 #7
I love Harris; she was my original first choice, she'd be a great VP; I'd rather see her as AG. NBachers Aug 2019 #8
+1 Lulu KC Aug 2019 #30
I also like this ticket Gothmog Aug 2019 #10
My favorite tweet: Fiendish Thingy Aug 2019 #11
Biden and Harris are pretty much the mainstream of the democratic party JI7 Aug 2019 #14
"..likes a Biden/Harris ticket for 2020" myohmy2 Aug 2019 #15
no, Warren is far better than Sanders . JI7 Aug 2019 #16
Kick! peggysue2 Aug 2019 #18
Warren is certainly doing what she advises, with excellent results. nt SunSeeker Aug 2019 #19
Bitecofer makes it clear in that Twitter thread that she thinks Sanders and Warren will continue to highplainsdem Aug 2019 #22
They're not really "dividing" them. It's more like Warren is taking them from Sanders. SunSeeker Aug 2019 #23
I didn't meant to suggest that they're dividing them evenly, though in some polls and poll averages highplainsdem Aug 2019 #26
Good for Rachel. No thanks, to the Biden/Harris ticket. nt littlemissmartypants Aug 2019 #27
Unless there is a LOT of bridge-rebuilding up to the nomination nitpicker Aug 2019 #28
I've always thought Skidmore Aug 2019 #31
 

ancianita

(36,137 posts)
1. Yes, she did, indeed, undercount the Dem wins of the House. Let's hope!
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:07 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Cha

(297,692 posts)
2. KR while I take
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:08 AM
Aug 2019

time to read this.. Thank You!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

ancianita

(36,137 posts)
3. Heck, no, it's not an argument against Biden. Not at all. It's an argument about strategy --
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:10 AM
Aug 2019
keeping Trumpers' disillusionment real and getting the college demographic fired up!

I don't care who shows up to vote for Dems, we just need to know who they are, and nominate someone who Bitecofer really knows want to vote for a good Democrat -- O'Rourke and Abrams enthusiasts, climate change enthusiasts -- the new, young independents!
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Fiendish Thingy

(15,657 posts)
4. Her one sentence summary on Lawrence was "it's all about the (progressive) base"
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:18 AM
Aug 2019

She said don't worry about winning the moderates, you need to inspire massive turn out from the base. (Which is the exact opposite theory/strategy of the Dem party establishment, who take the base for granted). I believe it was her interview for Salon where she said it would be a mistake to think that turn out will be increased by a nominee who has "personality", rather than inspirational policies that the electorate believes will help them.

A "safe" Status Quo Establishment candidate will not inspire massive turnout.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts)
5. You need to read that Twitter thread. And you're addng the word "progressive" to what she says
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:26 AM
Aug 2019

about the base.


Editing to add that she does think a more centrist candidate like Biden, if the nominee -- as she seems to think likely -- needs to be balanced with a running mate who will help energize progressives and young voters and black voters. She's said Clinton made a mistake choosing Tim Kaine as a running mate.

I won't argue with her there.

But she definitely is not saying the presidential nominee has to be a progressive. In fact, her prediction for 2020 seemed to be warning a bit against that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Fiendish Thingy

(15,657 posts)
9. She specifically said on Lawrence "don't worry about the moderates, inspire the base"
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:37 AM
Aug 2019

That implies the base is composed of those to the left of the moderates.

If you read her Salon interview, she emphatically states that her data shows the blue wave was due to highly motivated anti-Trump/GOP voters, especially independents (not Trump voting independents, a different group altogether). The Blue Wave was not due to an increased turnout of moderates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

JI7

(89,274 posts)
17. the base includes moderates, liberals, conservatives etc . the base is people that regularly vote
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 01:11 AM
Aug 2019

democratic and it's more based on race, religion, and other similar groupings than on ideology .

for example black people are the base and this includes moderates, liberals etc. the same with jewish voters, gay voters etc.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
21. THIS. Members of the base are solid -- they turn themselves out.
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:15 AM
Aug 2019

That's why they're the base.

In spite of the reality that some groups, such as the AA monolith, contain a lot of people naturally oriented to be conservative, though, the Democratic Party is strongly dominated by liberals and most members are overall quite similar in ideology and goals. Liberal indies as well.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Ponietz

(3,015 posts)
12. +1 Your last sentence sums it up nicely
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:57 AM
Aug 2019

Stop playing for Repuke votes—we won’t get them and it depresses Democratic and independent voter turnout.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts)
20. Just listened to her again. She was using "moderate" to mean "centrist independent."
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:12 AM
Aug 2019

See my reply in the other thread about her:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287246088#post26


She said that moderates can be appealed to, but Democrats don't do it well. (The remark about it all being about the base followed that.) She's clearly differentiating there between moderates as she''s using that term, and Democrats, which means she's talking about centrist independents.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
25. Yes. Or moderate conservatives. Pew says very few are genuinely
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:28 AM
Aug 2019

independent, and those tend to be flaky and unreliable voters (my words!). Studies show that almost all people, though each is typically a goulash of opinions, average out either liberal or conservative.

Centrists are those on both sides who generally play well with others because democracy requires cooperation and it comes naturally to them; but individually, centrists are usually going to be either moderate conservatives or moderate liberals.

Researchers say there is no personality or political type of "moderate." It'd be like saying you filled a glass with cool or a cup with tepid. Tepid what?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Laffy Kat

(16,386 posts)
6. I do think having Harris on the ticket is a no-brainer.
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:26 AM
Aug 2019

She is simply superb.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BigmanPigman

(51,630 posts)
24. I mentioned a Biden /Harris ticket to my family
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:20 AM
Aug 2019

at a dinner a year ago and all of us liked the idea (3 generations of Dems).

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Laffy Kat

(16,386 posts)
29. There ya go, a sure thing. nt
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 03:16 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NBachers

(17,142 posts)
8. I love Harris; she was my original first choice, she'd be a great VP; I'd rather see her as AG.
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:34 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,578 posts)
10. I also like this ticket
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:51 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Fiendish Thingy

(15,657 posts)
11. My favorite tweet:
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 12:53 AM
Aug 2019

"1. Tap into the anti-Trump sentiment
2. Run as a Democrat & make a + case for liberalism NOT as an embarrassed Democrat bc voters hate weakness & bc you will not be wooing opposition voters to vote for you due to polarization but you WILL be depressing your own turnout. "

Example: Biden today came out for $15 min. Wage, not a pragmatic incremental "safe for business" lip service position from campaigns in the not too distant past.

Positions don't have to be "extreme" (which is quite subjective, since $15 min wage was considered extreme just 4 years ago), but they must be clear, firm, and bold. If voters truly believe in a candidate's positions (as opposed to being dazzled by personality) and don't perceive them as just more political malarkey, they will turn out in record numbers, and WE WILL WIN.

On the other hand, if we have a nominee who doesn't run as an "anti-Trump" candidate, but simply "not Trump", and equivocates with unclear policies that don't seem helpful, turn out could be depressed, especially among young voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

JI7

(89,274 posts)
14. Biden and Harris are pretty much the mainstream of the democratic party
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 01:07 AM
Aug 2019

so it's all about getting turnout in the end. and to prevent republicans from fraud .

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

myohmy2

(3,177 posts)
15. "..likes a Biden/Harris ticket for 2020"
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 01:07 AM
Aug 2019

...well that's good, I don't...

...I think a Sanders/Warren ticket would do a much better job cleaning trump's clock and winning the election...

...the pundits we're all wrong last time, can we believe them now?

...if the pukes got that slime-ball trump elected, we should easily be able to elect Bernie and Elizabeth...

...and when we do, we'll have something grand working for us in the White House...we'll then be able to address problems and grievances that we haven't been able to address for generations...

...why settle for a Chevy when you can have a Cadillac?

...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

JI7

(89,274 posts)
16. no, Warren is far better than Sanders .
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 01:09 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

peggysue2

(10,842 posts)
18. Kick!
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 01:28 AM
Aug 2019

Nicely done, highplainsdem. Biden/Harris is my dream ticket to kick Republican ass from here to hell. So . . .Bitecofer's lips to God's ear. And take Joe Biden's tweet to the bank:

We're going to make Trump a one-term president!!!

AGO4JOE&KAMALA2020





If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SunSeeker

(51,719 posts)
19. Warren is certainly doing what she advises, with excellent results. nt
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 01:56 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts)
22. Bitecofer makes it clear in that Twitter thread that she thinks Sanders and Warren will continue to
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:15 AM
Aug 2019

divide the progressive bloc until it's too late for Warren as well as Sanders.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

SunSeeker

(51,719 posts)
23. They're not really "dividing" them. It's more like Warren is taking them from Sanders.
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:19 AM
Aug 2019

But I do see her continuing to struggle to get the African American vote. Joe already has it and if he taps Harris for VP, he'll have a solid ticket, that I agree with.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(49,041 posts)
26. I didn't meant to suggest that they're dividing them evenly, though in some polls and poll averages
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 02:37 AM
Aug 2019

they are, at the moment.

Between the two of them they have a block of progressive support roughly equal to Biden's support, but Warren started out with only a third or so as much support as Sanders and has gradually increased that to about the same level of support or a bit more, depending on which polls you look at.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

littlemissmartypants

(22,819 posts)
27. Good for Rachel. No thanks, to the Biden/Harris ticket. nt
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 03:03 AM
Aug 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

nitpicker

(7,153 posts)
28. Unless there is a LOT of bridge-rebuilding up to the nomination
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 03:15 AM
Aug 2019

I don't think this will happen.

I agree that if the nominee is Biden, and he picks "another white man", there is a risk of a Thump second term.

We NEED turnout to counter the closet Repug turnout.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Skidmore

(37,364 posts)
31. I've always thought
Tue Aug 20, 2019, 06:09 AM
Aug 2019

this is the best ticket. So much needs to be repaired here and abroad. I really want some concentration on the Justice. Dept by someone who can oversee such a task knowledgeably.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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