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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

question everything

(47,534 posts)
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:34 PM Sep 2019

Democrats Can't Afford to Leave Moderates Behind - Seib

As Democrats cruise toward their next debate later this month, and consider how far their party should move left along the way, here are some electoral facts to consider. Moderate voters have long been one of the most reliable constituencies for Democrats. Exit polls show that Democratic presidential candidates have won a majority of voters who identify themselves as moderates—as opposed to liberals or conservatives—in every election since 1988. Put differently, Democrats have carried moderate voters in every election since Ronald Reagan left the scene. But just prevailing among moderates isn’t enough. To win nationally, history shows, Democrats need to win them decisively. In every presidential election Democrats won in that time span, they carried moderates by more than a dozen percentage points. In the elections they lost—in 1988, 2000, 2004 and 2016—they failed to carry moderates by such a margin.

(snip)

Sen. Bernie Sanders, who has pulled the party left over the past four years, continues to set the pace. He already has proposed free medical care, free college tuition, college debt forgiveness and a $16 trillion climate-change plan. Then, over the weekend, his campaign said he would be unveiling a plan for the federal government to pay off $81 billion in Americans’ past-due medical debt. Not every Democrat is embracing the Sanders agenda, of course. But he isn’t an outlier either; along with former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Sanders stands in the top tier of Democratic candidates.

Meantime, the moderate ranks are thinning. Mr. Biden, who certainly is a moderate by today’s standards, remains the leader of the Democratic pack, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar will join him on the debate stage later this month. But other moderate voices are fading away: Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper has left the race to run for the Senate, and Sen. Michael Bennet, Rep. Tim Ryan, former Rep. John Delaney, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock —all of whom argued for a more moderate agenda in the first two Democratic debates—have failed to qualify for the next one. That is just one sign that the primary-season energy is high on the left wing of the party this year. It is a dynamic that has some Democrats worried that the party has simply stopped talking to many of the moderate voters who again could prove critical in the general election.

(snip)

Mr. Zogby worries these traditional Democrats in the heart of the country aren’t hearing from today’s Democratic Party, focused as it is on millennials and coastal enclaves. “People will call them everything,” Mr. Zogby says. “They’re white working-class, moderate, ethnic votes. They’re swing voters, they’re Reagan Democrats.” He adds: “When I speak to them they say we didn’t leave the Democratic Party. They left us. They stopped talking to us.” Mr. Trump, of course, did talk to them in 2016, and attracted enough of them in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to win the White House, even while losing so many votes along the coast that he failed to win the national popular vote. A repeat is entirely possible, even though some of these moderate voters actually have been harmed by Trump trade policies.... One problem for Democrats, he adds, is that the national party’s current culture isn’t geared toward reaching such voters. Indeed, many Democrats think the 2020 election will be won simply by mobilizing the party’s progressive base. History, though, suggests that is a risky proposition.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-cant-afford-to-leave-moderates-behind-11567432578 (paid subscription)

=====

And before someone protest, oh the WSJ, Gerald Seib is a political commentator, not part of the editorial board and I have posted many of his columns here.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Democrats Can't Afford to Leave Moderates Behind - Seib (Original Post) question everything Sep 2019 OP
K&R! Thanks for posting this! highplainsdem Sep 2019 #1
He writes like the Blue Wave never happened. 50 Shades Of Blue Sep 2019 #2
The 2018 wave that gave the Dems the House, was an anti-trump wave empedocles Sep 2019 #6
Seats were flipped red to blue too. 50 Shades Of Blue Sep 2019 #7
Those red to blue flips are the ones I was talking about. 21, if I remember correctly. empedocles Sep 2019 #10
"Nov 7, 2018 - Democrats have flipped at least 40 House seats" Cha Sep 2019 #22
Come on DownriverDem Sep 2019 #8
What is your definition of "far left"? Someone who supports women's reproductive freedom ? 50 Shades Of Blue Sep 2019 #13
No DownriverDem Sep 2019 #15
This!! Nothing is free Thekaspervote Sep 2019 #23
This sounds like Republican talk to me. 50 Shades Of Blue Sep 2019 #29
If wanting government that works for all the people and not just the 1% makes me far brewens Sep 2019 #27
Exactly. I consider Warren quite moderate delisen Sep 2019 #30
pretty sure the blue wave had moderates in it qazplm135 Sep 2019 #17
The "Blue Wave" were entirely moderates... Steven Maurer Sep 2019 #26
The 40 or so candidates that won the house were moderates...and we will surely lose the house Demsrule86 Sep 2019 #35
If it's populism for the working class we're supposedly lacking he isn't listening BeyondGeography Sep 2019 #3
Thanks for the link. I like Amy and am hoping that she and Joe really challenge Warren and Bernie on Skya Rhen Sep 2019 #4
Me too DownriverDem Sep 2019 #9
Go Milquetoast or go home! Lucky Luciano Sep 2019 #11
+1! KPN Sep 2019 #14
I don't care what someone who writes for the WSJ has to say. n/t demmiblue Sep 2019 #5
Any moderate who has a brain is going to vote for any Democrat our party nominates in 2020. KPN Sep 2019 #12
They won't if you run a candidate that doesn't appeal to them...the take it or leave it attitude Demsrule86 Sep 2019 #36
Take it or leave it attitude? Hey man, it works both ways. KPN Sep 2019 #39
"How do you like free health care boys and girls?" "How would you like free tuition boys and girls?" wasupaloopa Sep 2019 #16
Yawn Sherman A1 Sep 2019 #18
Just more anti-Progressive propaganda from the $$$ establishment. MarcA Sep 2019 #19
None of us on the Left can afford to write off anyone in our big tent. elocs Sep 2019 #20
Bernie has helped to pull the Party to the left but... DCofVA Sep 2019 #21
In my experience, the people aren't "left" Steven Maurer Sep 2019 #28
Doesn't that kind of work both ways? Can Democrats afford to leave progressives behind? Autumn Sep 2019 #24
Volume doesn't always mean loudness... NurseJackie Sep 2019 #25
+1 OrwellwasRight Sep 2019 #34
Senator Warren HAS been talking to those people. Blue_true Sep 2019 #31
Exactly. BlueWI Sep 2019 #32
She will not win in the rust belt...her policies are not popular. Demsrule86 Sep 2019 #37
He is confusing working class white with moderate. OrwellwasRight Sep 2019 #33
Why is it that in all of these articles Bettie Sep 2019 #38
+1 hurl Sep 2019 #40
 

50 Shades Of Blue

(10,043 posts)
2. He writes like the Blue Wave never happened.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:38 PM
Sep 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
6. The 2018 wave that gave the Dems the House, was an anti-trump wave
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:49 PM
Sep 2019

of trumps districts that voted dem. Those new Dems give us the majority - they are not purist, blue wavers.

The are cautious pragmatists who want to be re-elected - and we desperately need them.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

50 Shades Of Blue

(10,043 posts)
7. Seats were flipped red to blue too.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:50 PM
Sep 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

empedocles

(15,751 posts)
10. Those red to blue flips are the ones I was talking about. 21, if I remember correctly.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:58 PM
Sep 2019

All of them, as far as I know, I being careful not to alienate those trump voters who voted blue in 2018

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Cha

(297,655 posts)
22. "Nov 7, 2018 - Democrats have flipped at least 40 House seats"
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 04:26 PM
Sep 2019
Full list: 2018 midterm election seats that flipped

https://www.axios.com/full-list-2018-midterm-election-seats-flipped-34d99826-0929-41c6-a1f0-e4d02861c835.html

They ran mostly on Health Care.. per Nancy's suggestion.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DownriverDem

(6,231 posts)
8. Come on
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:55 PM
Sep 2019

Most voters are not far left. If you overreach, you lose the middle which you need to beat trump. I've seen this happen the the Dems lost big. So the question is, do folks want to beat trump or just push their own agenda which could hurt?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

50 Shades Of Blue

(10,043 posts)
13. What is your definition of "far left"? Someone who supports women's reproductive freedom ?
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 02:10 PM
Sep 2019

Someone who supports and fights for gun control? Someone who believes in and supports fighting climate change? Someone who fights for workers against corporate abuse and fights for closing the wage gap? Someone who fights for universal health coverage? Etc., etc.

I'm not willing to sacrifice any of those things on the altar of "moderation." Moderates have been used as an excuse too fucking long.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DownriverDem

(6,231 posts)
15. No
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 02:24 PM
Sep 2019

Far left is all the freebies candidates talk about. Moderates are not for the freebies when we get no details. It scares them away. You need to concentrate on who can win the Electoral College which is state by state. That's the game. Concentrate on that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

50 Shades Of Blue

(10,043 posts)
29. This sounds like Republican talk to me.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 09:33 PM
Sep 2019

That's how they diminish liberal Democrats.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

brewens

(13,620 posts)
27. If wanting government that works for all the people and not just the 1% makes me far
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 09:01 PM
Sep 2019

left so be it. I want a liberal candidate that will stop the looting at the top, raise taxes on the rich and narrow the income gap. We also need to get going on a single payer public option and work toward a national universal health care program.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

delisen

(6,044 posts)
30. Exactly. I consider Warren quite moderate
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 09:56 PM
Sep 2019

and I believe most voters will see her the same way.

Too many of these political analysts want to keep framing our politics with labels which no longer work.

Moderates do not want their lives to be in constant manufactured crises. They do not want their children to be murdered, They want to be able to take advantage of modern medicine without becoming impoverished, they want regulation of big banks. They want big corporations to obey laws. They do not want massive gaps between the income of rich and poor.

The want survival of the planet, they want clean air, clean water, and don't want themselves, their children , and their grandchildren to be poisoned, or plunged into debt in order to obtain an education.

Affordable health insurance is not a revolutionary concept, budgeting on a national level for health care delivering heath care the way many advanced nations do already is not a revolutionary concept. Working together to achieve the well-being of our citizens is not a revolutionary concept.It is what well-organized and well run nations do.

The right of individual citizens to have control over their bodies, and there personal lives is just basic human rights

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

qazplm135

(7,447 posts)
17. pretty sure the blue wave had moderates in it
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 02:52 PM
Sep 2019

pretty sure it wasn't just progressives (who make up less than half the party).

Bottom line is you need both progressives and moderates...and both progressives and moderates will have to compromise some and coalesce around whomever the nominee is...whether it's Sanders, Warren through to Biden or another moderate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Steven Maurer

(476 posts)
26. The "Blue Wave" were entirely moderates...
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 08:58 PM
Sep 2019

Not a single candidate who successfully flipped a GOP seat in 2018 was endorsed by Sanders' "Our Revolution" or AOC's "Justice Democrats".

So I find your statement false.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)
35. The 40 or so candidates that won the house were moderates...and we will surely lose the house
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 03:50 PM
Sep 2019

asnd presidential general if we nominate a candidate who can't connect with moderate voters...health care the ACA was the number one issue...and Waren and Sanders are running on MFA...that is a big issue if either are the nominee. Vote blue no matter who... let's kick Trump out!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BeyondGeography

(39,379 posts)
3. If it's populism for the working class we're supposedly lacking he isn't listening
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:41 PM
Sep 2019

Moderates are struggling at this level more because they still think reaching out to Republicans is a good idea than their policies. Of all of them, Bennett has the best tone but he’s paying a price for obscurity.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)
4. Thanks for the link. I like Amy and am hoping that she and Joe really challenge Warren and Bernie on
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:43 PM
Sep 2019

their policies that are not moderate enough...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DownriverDem

(6,231 posts)
9. Me too
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:58 PM
Sep 2019

I don't not believe all the current candidates can beat trump. Why? It's an Electoral College race which is state by state. Most polls we see are national and not state by state.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Lucky Luciano

(11,258 posts)
11. Go Milquetoast or go home!
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 02:00 PM
Sep 2019

Sounds like a good slogan!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

demmiblue

(36,885 posts)
5. I don't care what someone who writes for the WSJ has to say. n/t
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 01:46 PM
Sep 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

KPN

(15,650 posts)
12. Any moderate who has a brain is going to vote for any Democrat our party nominates in 2020.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 02:08 PM
Sep 2019

This article is just another red herring attempt to frighten Democrats away from reasonable responses to 4+ decades of trickle down run rampant -- pure BS.

Don't fall for the scare mongering folks.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)
36. They won't if you run a candidate that doesn't appeal to them...the take it or leave it attitude
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 03:54 PM
Sep 2019

is disturbing...AA voters must vote for whoever mostly white progressives select? And moderate are expected to do the same? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Nominate a candidate who can win, not the purest but perhaps unelectable in the general candidate...I vote blue no matter who but you simply can't count on picking a nominee who only works for one part of the Democratic party...a minority part at thatas the mid terms clearly showed.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

KPN

(15,650 posts)
39. Take it or leave it attitude? Hey man, it works both ways.
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 05:34 PM
Sep 2019

That’s a non-starter if you’re trying to convince me or many of those who aren’t particularly thrilled with an almost octogenarian who has been a top tier player within the party the past 40+ years.

I will vote for whoever becomes our ultimate candidate in the GE, but i’m sure as hell not going to vote for someone in the primary just because he’s familiar, a nice guy, or has a plurality in the primary polls.

I’m pretty done with center, moderate or whatever you want to call it regarding D candidates. In the 70s I thought of myself as center left because that’s where my views aligned. My views haven’t changed since then, but today i’m almost a communist to some and definitely a “socialist” according to my sense of some Ds here at DU.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

wasupaloopa

(4,516 posts)
16. "How do you like free health care boys and girls?" "How would you like free tuition boys and girls?"
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 02:43 PM
Sep 2019

“How do you like my paying off college debt boys and girls?”

“Hey Bernie how much does it cost and how do pay for it?”

“How would you like free health care boys and girls?”

“Hey Bernie what is the plan to do these things?”

“How do you like free health care boys and girls?”

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MarcA

(2,195 posts)
19. Just more anti-Progressive propaganda from the $$$ establishment.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 03:49 PM
Sep 2019

Still pandering worn out false memes like the "Democrats left us", "far left", "coastal elites" and "free stuff". A risky proposition to put prime concern on mobilizing your base? How about all the Democratic loses when the DNC/DLC was pushing centrist purity? Detailed proposals have been made and getting those out to the voters should be the main concern, not giving weight to anti-progressive pandering.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

elocs

(22,600 posts)
20. None of us on the Left can afford to write off anyone in our big tent.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 04:14 PM
Sep 2019

Or at least our tent should be big. On our end of the political spectrum nobody can expect to get everything their way but be prepared to concede points to others who may have voted for Democratic candidates for decades.
We need to stop the put-downs of good Democrats as being DINOs or Republican Lite just because they are not Liberal enough for us.
If we do not stand together we will fail, and the stakes are far too high for that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DCofVA

(714 posts)
21. Bernie has helped to pull the Party to the left but...
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 04:20 PM
Sep 2019

He didn’t pull the people to the left. We have been here waiting for our representatives to get with us. And, there are a whole lot of us, and we’re growing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Steven Maurer

(476 posts)
28. In my experience, the people aren't "left"
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 09:01 PM
Sep 2019

Which is why the hard left always fails to oust Republicans from office.

Left in position but not in anger seems more likely to work.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Autumn

(45,120 posts)
24. Doesn't that kind of work both ways? Can Democrats afford to leave progressives behind?
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 05:04 PM
Sep 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
25. Volume doesn't always mean loudness...
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 08:53 PM
Sep 2019

... sometimes it also means quantity. Elections are won with votes, not the loudest voters.

All I'm saying is that it doesn't make sense to spend extraordinary efforts going after a handful of voters, when half the time and effort can be used to convince thousands more voters to support Democrats.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
31. Senator Warren HAS been talking to those people.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 10:39 PM
Sep 2019

She is going to many small towns that most people don't know exists. That is why I believe she will be our nominee, she is Obama-like in that regard.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BlueWI

(1,736 posts)
32. Exactly.
Mon Sep 2, 2019, 10:48 PM
Sep 2019

The state of Iowa isn't Berkeley or Portland, and Warren's winning.

No bloc of Democrats should be written off. Not progressives, not moderates. Respect all sides and earn their votes. Too much fear and re-fighting campaigns of yesteryear is a bigger risk.

The point is, run a stellar campaign and win the election! Labels are going to be alleged all the time and dirty tricks and voter suppression are inevitable. Organize, hone your message, and win!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)
37. She will not win in the rust belt...her policies are not popular.
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 03:56 PM
Sep 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

OrwellwasRight

(5,170 posts)
33. He is confusing working class white with moderate.
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 12:30 AM
Sep 2019

They are not the same thing. He is exactly right that

“When I speak to them they say we didn’t leave the Democratic Party. They left us. They stopped talking to us.”


But, ahem, that's the thesis of What's the Matter with Kansas, the brilliant 2004 book by Thomas Frank that is as true today as it was then, and it exactly explains why some the industrial Midwest voted Trump. Yes, we all know that racism and misogyny and voter suppression and Clinton's campaign mistakes and Facebook propaganda produced by Russian troll farms and etc. all played a role in the 2016 debacle -- but so did the fact that Trump was able to persuade a not insignificant number of people who voted for Obama to also vote for him. And he did this by pretending to hear and understand and have plans to address their wage stagnation, their job insecurity, the hollowed out manufacturing base in their home towns and the clear lack of a reliable path to the middle class even after 8 years of solid growth. A solution to all of that will not be found by aiming for the mythical center voter and doubling down on neoliberalism. These voters want to hear plans for change, not plans for a return to the Obama years that for better or worse, left many behind (especially if you did not live on the coasts or in thriving big cities -- and even there you have an affordable housing crisis and homeless college students).

Since the great recession, only the top 30% has recovered their wealth loss (and then some!). That means 70% of us are still worse off than we were when the recession hit in 2007. Great chart available here: https://www.apnews.com/df1ca4016d27405791c10eb5772c06a4

And it is not just wealth, it is also income. The top 1% are hogging up most of the incomes gains. Again, a super chart is available here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/opinion/leonhardt-income-inequality.html?module=inline (scroll down to the second chart to see it in motion).

People feel this lack of fairness, they feel this insecurity, they see and feel that most of the best opportunities are out of reach unless they are already in the top half of the income scale. They are looking for bold, progressive economic proposals, not more middle of the road "rising tides lift all boats" bullshit.

My two cents.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Bettie

(16,124 posts)
38. Why is it that in all of these articles
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 04:05 PM
Sep 2019

there is a demand that the Left move toward this perceived center but Moderates are never asked to move a single inch toward the Left?

Is it the assumption that the Left doesn't matter at all; that we need to suck it up and embrace the status quo because we have nowhere else to go?

If we have a candidate who is not as "moderate" as some people want, will that make them embrace Trump and his open criminality?

Is it a simple reluctance to change?

Hope that if our side is as mild as possible that the other side will be nice?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

hurl

(938 posts)
40. +1
Tue Sep 3, 2019, 05:58 PM
Sep 2019

So true... Meanwhile the GOP pushes the Overton Window farther and farther rightward.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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