Democratic Primaries

left-of-center2012

(34,195 posts) Mon Sep 2, 2019, 07:17 PM Sep 2019

It's now Biden, Warren, Sanders -- and everyone else

The bottom is falling out of the Democratic presidential primary. And the top-tier — no longer five candidates, but three — is becoming more insurmountable.

In recent weeks, the leading band of candidates has contracted unexpectedly early. Heading into the fall, only three contenders are polling above single digits: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg remain at the periphery, while lower-polling candidates have largely failed to muster sustained, upward movement in fundraising or polling.

According to interviews with about two dozen Democratic operatives and consultants, there is little reason to expect any of them will. “It was legitimate to say ‘Top 5’ for a long time, but you’d have to have a strange confluence of events for someone outside those to win,” said Philippe Reines, a longtime Hillary Clinton confidant.

For every other candidate, Reines said, “It’s too late in the game to keep saying it’s too early.” The 2020 Democratic primary, by contrast, has been defined by its relative stability, with two full fundraising periods and two sets of debates now done. “The other candidates are SOL, and it has been that way for a couple of months,” Democratic strategist Matthew Littman said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/02/democratic-candidates-primary-2020-1479230

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

11 replies

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It's now Biden, Warren, Sanders -- and everyone else (Original Post) left-of-center2012 Sep 2019 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author Skittles Sep 2019 #1

Disagree. it only just starts after labor day. Kurt V. Sep 2019 #2

I agree with him also Andy823 Sep 2019 #8

:) Boy, do I disagree also. Some things will change. Hortensis Sep 2019 #9

Focus DownriverDem Sep 2019 #3

Well, no votes have been cast yet, so we have a way to go to really know for sure. nt oldsoftie Sep 2019 #4

Too early. highplainsdem Sep 2019 #5

I think Beto's numbers will rise after his strong stance on gun violence and assault rifles, Liberty Belle Sep 2019 #6

"Beto's numbers will rise..." left-of-center2012 Sep 2019 #7

This. cwydro Sep 2019 #10

"Numerous old man gaffes." Really? cwydro Sep 2019 #11

Response to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

Skittles This message was self-deleted by its author.

Kurt V.

(5,624 posts)

2. Disagree. it only just starts after labor day.

Reply to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 07:37 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Andy823

(11,495 posts)

8. I agree with him also

Reply to Kurt V. (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 09:49 AM

Sep 2019

This race has a long way to, and it's just getting started!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

9. :) Boy, do I disagree also. Some things will change.

Reply to Kurt V. (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 11:01 AM

Sep 2019

The dissident left's been busy trying to cast Biden as a pervert, senile, conservative, etc, but the Repubs/Russia have barely gotten started.

My most assumed "normal" change is that someone else will move up into Sanders' place as people pay more attention and get more familiar with the candidates; his floor may be somewhere around his low-end polls, 11-13%. But again, our enemies foreign and domestic may want to keep him in their hands as a wild card.

And Biden's going to wobble up and down, likely into second now and then, maybe worse, as the Repub/Russians/dissident left intensify their attacks on him.

But that's just the easy guesses. Seat belt buckled.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DownriverDem

(6,231 posts)

3. Focus

Reply to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 07:38 PM

Sep 2019

We are talking about winning the Electoral College which is state by state. Biden can beat trump. trump does not want to run against Biden. All that matters is beating trump. Biden running with a strong, progressive, Dem woman would be a winning ticket.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

oldsoftie

(12,604 posts)

4. Well, no votes have been cast yet, so we have a way to go to really know for sure. nt

Reply to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 08:33 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,038 posts)

5. Too early.

Reply to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

Mon Sep 2, 2019, 09:09 PM

Sep 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Liberty Belle

(9,535 posts)

6. I think Beto's numbers will rise after his strong stance on gun violence and assault rifles,

Reply to left-of-center2012 (Original post)

Tue Sep 3, 2019, 12:02 AM

Sep 2019

but otherwise I agree with you.

The progressives will ultimately have to decide on Warren or Sanders, but I think if the progressive unify Biden may be in trouble. If both stay in for the long run, Biden is more apt to win.

I see Warren as the best choice -- progressive enough to keep the Sanders wing of the party, and willing enough to reach out to mainstream Dems not to alienate Biden supporters if she wins. She grew up in Oklahoma and can speak in a way that resonates with midwestern farm state voters, but also represents Massachusetts, so will keep New England and progressive states in the fold. And as a woman, she'll also keep the Hilary Clinton fans who think we are past due for a woman president.

Biden has zero charisma, commits numerous old man gaffs, and to me is not a safe choice, but a risky one. We don't need one doddering old man running against another one.

I like Sanders but he's old too and his touting of socialism loses some; Elizabeth is progressive enough for me with none of the baggage of the other two front runners. I would also love to see her wipe the floor with Trump in a debate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden