Go Elizabeth Warren!

After President Pelosi!

Fingers crossed! We'd LOVE it.

Would rethugs vote Pence out, knowing they would be putting Pelosi in charge in the Oval? Small chance, don't ya think ?

Yes, she can!

People that vote in our primary have been reevaluating for a while. At first the Biden alternative was either Harris, Buttigieg or Warren. Warren has navigated the landmines better and that is showing as people gravitate to her. Barring major slip ups by her, she can effectively close the door on the rest and put herself in a position to battle Biden toe to toe in the crucial southern primaries.

But remember, Dukakis won the nomination and he faced southern primaries.

Warren is not Bernie. If she makes a strong effort in the South and visit people where they are, she will convert an awful lot of people. She is not doctrinaire and I really feel the average southerner will at least listen to what she has to say.

gain momentum is going to benefit whomever is our candidate in the Southern states IMO.

nt

A direct effect of Trump attacking Biden. Beat that.

Warren like Clinton has been defined over the last few years and i think she has a built in disadvantage in a General election. I know many independents here that refuse to support her or Bernie. Now, the reasoning is flawed but its fact. I agree with her politically but she has a much harder path to 270. I can assure you she won't compete in Texas or Arizona and will make Florida, Wisconsin and Michigan more challenging. Obviously, this is simply my opinion and would support her vigorously if she is nominee

I get tired of hearing that a woman can't win. One already did.

Obviously, since Hillary isn’t President. Her margin was three million in California. If it were only a single vote it still only counts for their fifty-five electoral votes. We need to win those blue wall states back. I don’t see Warren winning those with her built in disadvantages.

And the media are paying close attention. Morning Joe had those "then" and "now" polling numbers side by side today. They don't bode well for the Republicans.

If you have deep concerns that this polling doesn't mean anything when election day 2020 rolls around, please discuss it here. I'd like to know what you think will "stay the same" as 2016 in those states and what might or will change due to recent events, things we didn't know in 2016.

The thing is we Dems can't wring our hands and say "nothing can be done." Like it or not, Trump is in deep doo-doo with lots of voters who swung the election to him in 2016.

Also, Elizabeth Warren isn't Hillary Clinton. The hardest of hard core won't vote for her, but the more reasonable of the 2016 phalanx that stopped HRC has "gotten what they asked for" and let's see how that plays out.

that her plans will “save America.”

You can see that in her video's from campaign stops. She has so much energy.

That's a combination that can't lose!! Speaking of winning combinations...


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

CA needs more Electoral Votes.

and electability is over-rated in my opinion. I think energizing the base is more important than anything else. Warren is doing a better job in that regard than Biden.

All the base needs to be excited is a chance to throw Trump out. We need the swing voters. The ones who voted Obama/Trump. We need the Trump/Lamb voters.

AMEN!!!

But in 2016 I'd have said, "All the base needs to be excited is a chance to prevent a Trump presidency." And here we are.

I think the electorate has now seen Trump in action and it hasn't gone that well with him. His base, yes, they'll stay to the bitter end. But not everybody who voted for him will. And the impeachment proceedings will make things worse for him. This isn't Bill Clinton with his dalliance with an intern and then lying about it. Trump has committed treasonable acts. BIG difference.

I see Warren pressing the attack on Trump everywhere, I truly believe that Hillary did not do that well in some key states.

that is second to none, except Bennie.


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

the video of Biden bragging about putting the pressure on a foreign country?

Warren doesn't have half as much baggage as Clinton did and not 1/10th as much as Biden does. She's stronger overall in just about every category than the other two. The only thing she lacks is a pall from being on the wrong side of issues in the past, such as pro-Iraq war votes and the like.

She has a strong record of fighting for people over profits. She's exactly what we need at exactly the right time in history.

never end up voting for a Democrat. They somehow, even if not Fox/Rush rabid, have been programmed over the years to believe Democrats will, at a minimum, raise their taxes if nothing else and are "weak" on defense and won't stand up for America's interests enough.

Hopefully, holding Trump (maybe with a few others) accountable for their crimes will begin to disabuse them of this whole "weakness" argument.

Warren would make a fine President.

She is getting great Press ..Her 2 main competitors , Biden and Bernie, are not … Unless that dynamic changes, Warren is poised for big wins in Iowa and NH …..That will sink Bernie and Joe ...She'll wrap it up on March 3, Super Tuesday ….I don't want this to happen but I think this is where this campaign is heading …. Of course , I will enthusiastically support her in the general …...

Senator Sanders seem to be walking on banana peels relative to Senator Warren, and former VP Biden keeps delivering a openings to Senator Warren. Barring a major slip up, Senator Warren could be in for a string of big early victories that essentially hand her our party nomination.

You folks are assuming that the media doesn't turn on her. They are going to if she becomes a front runner....because there isn't a better horserace story than a front runner falling.

If Warren starts getting the shit media Bernie and Biden have been enduring for months , she will fall back to earth ….I just don't see any indication that this will happen anytime soon …..I have serious concerns how she will play with working class and rural voters in the general …...Many of them are deeply anti-intellectual and mysoginistic …… On the other hand Trump may be in such bad shape , it won't matter ...It is possible she will face President Pence and Vice-President Nikki Haley

What is it you do not like?

I think of all the other countries that have elected women - and not even recently - Indira Gandhi, Golda Meir, Margaret Thatcher, Benazir Bhutto! But it still has yet to happen here!

with a bold progressive agenda that voters are demanding... so, I would support Elizabeth wholeheartedly... go Elizabeth!! Our country needs you... and Bernie (on the same ticket).


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

Those are both my favorites. My only hesitation is that we also really need their leadership in the Senate. And Elizabeth Warren was just reelected in 2018, so wouldn't the Republican governor appoint a Republican to replace her?

I've been on board since late 2012!

countries with Queen tradition, women warriors and matriarchal culture...we will do it here when an extraordinary woman breaks through our association between a masculine figure and a commander in chief, could be a woman with a military background.

And yet we've only ever nominated a woman for the top job once.

the collective American imagination to overcome, but with Clinton and Warren’s run and their strong following, we see change afoot. The problem is not misogyny, but custom, culture.
Tradition changes as its arbiters do.
I am not convinced that Warren will be the one to break that ceiling created by a lack of historical
precedent and national myths, but someone will, probably someone more charismatic than any male rival, more inspiring.
Obama was a leader for the century. He appealed so widely and deeply. He touched a common core. He had a gift for oratory, no small matter. He also ran an incredible, new kind of campaign.
Is a woman with such a capability, to transcend political, cultural, racial, regional differences, to unify a vast majority, in the offing? Perhaps a WOC? She very well might lack name recognition.
I don’t see her yet, but many obviously do.

Please. Just wish duers would stop this.

Last edited Fri Sep 27, 2019, 12:48 PM - Edit history (1)

but, she will be seen as a coastal elite in the midwest, I don't think she can win the general, but if she is the nominee, I'll vote and work for her.

Not even her party affiliation?

Look, I'm all-in for Joe if he pulls it out in the primaries, and I'm counting on you to do the same if it's Warren (or Sanders or Harris or...). Blanket condemnation of everything about one of our candidates is not going to help us take back the White House.

She is a respected, accomplished Senator and strong female Democratic candidate who is fighting for a better life for all Americans, and you don’t like anything about her? Strange.

does it using the simple language of common sense.

To lead in the international community? To lead during a time when the world is closer to a first
nuclear war than ever before in our history?

To lead on all issues, not only those pertaining to working families? That is one relatively narrow issue she has focused on intensely. Improving economic life for working families appears to be
her central theme, her message tax the rich to do it.

I am hoping she will expand her repertoire.

and her capabilities far differently.

My reply to my longtime DU friend above was the reason why I believe she will appeal to those blocks of working class voters that voted for Trump.

Although Warren also has a vast appeal to new voters, as well.

what she puts forward, a long list of domestic economic plans aimed at helping working families. She also promises to solve the opiate crisis, help students current and former, and she endorses Bernie’s healthcare proposal.

Domestic economic policy is but one area the president must concern herself with. She may have legislation to propose, but can not wave a magic wand to get her ideas implemented. She also will find budgetary constraints in a time of record high deficits, competing concerns such as infrastructure, and upon taking office, an ongoing Republican challenge to the existing social safety net as well as to healthcare—we will have to use Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare as they exist NOW.

What is the plan to protect these, all under dire threat? Not exciting to talk about existing, imperiled social services and programs, but there it is. Also the need to address immigration—to provide resources for migrants, implement DACA, give 11 million a pathway to citizenship. She has much to put on the American credit card already, without new programs.

I would love to see a President Warren, but let’s get real. Not gonna happen. I wish people weren’t so naive.

NT.

That's a major plus for me!

That might seem "elitist" to some dumber voters, like the illiterate or the business majors, but that makes it even better to me.

It was the "go to" degree for the people who couldn't make it in science, at least at my university.

Economic growth, forever?

If that means anything meaningful, it means growth in GDP forever. Since GDP depends on resources, even in the service sector (providing energy for the humans or anything else that provide the services), and our resources aren't infinite, I consider most business majors who swallow the typical nonsense that they're fed to be gullible at the very least.

abilities is hardly enlightened. I taught many business majors, a diverse population at my university, and do not find a universal truth in what you say, but certainly a bias. My accountant is one of the better read people I know. My neighbor, a liberal in this liberal enclave, works in finance.

Some business majors want to own small businesses, go into banking (you do bank, don’t you?), or other areas that a business major provides a good umbrella degree for. Similarly, many fields we would not have considered a few decades ago draw young people with a wide variety of political views. Criminology is one. Liberal arts majors, unless one wants to teach, can be a ticket to joblessness. I remember a girl in my administration of justice course when I, a lit major going back to school, was taking courses, who had been a drama major but returned because she wanted to join the police force.

This thinking, that these or those folks, them, are the adversarial “other,” does not help win general elections.

I have family that are brilliant economists, but you don't see many people with great emotional intelligence drawn to a business degree.

A stereotype, to be sure, but who are we kidding?

yes? Emotional intelligence and how it is used does not depend on and is not expressed by one’s college major. Especially not today. It does not make sense to say business majors And dumb people, really, does it? How patronizing. I am sure you don’t mean to be. I have known police officers, estate lawyers, accountants, and business majors with EI, doctors, writers, without.

Anyway, not a good to time to write off people by majors, occupations, or even, I believe, prior positions on the political spectrum. One of Obama's strengths was that he didn’t do this, clinging to
guns and religion remark at a fundraiser, notwithstanding. In addressing the American people, in making appeals for his election, he didn’t exclude; rather, he was inclusive.

The polls tell the story... good for her!! So damn proud of the campaign Elizabeth is running!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, welcome to the revolution!!!

As more newer polls come in, the average will change.

There's no indication Warren's rise is about to abate.

Love Warren, but she can't win.

Last edited Sat Sep 28, 2019, 04:44 PM - Edit history (1)

M4a is losing popularity and when she finally divulges what the tax bill will be it will be the death Nell

She is still not polling well with the AA voting block. Biden still holds 46% average in most polls. Can’t win the general without it

She will not be competitive in The rust belt, AZ, TX, or FL

Because they just love Joe Biden so much?

I hate to tell you this, but that AA support isn't nearly as deep as you'd like us to imagine.

As for M4A, here's Warren earlier this year:

"I’ve signed onto Medicare for All. I’ve signed on to another one that gives an option for buying in to Medicaid. There are different ways we can get there. But the key has to be always keep the center of the bullseye in mind. And that is affordable health care for every American. "

People are looking for solutions. ANY solution which gives them HOPE will be popular.
I see every reason why voters will go along with any serious overhaul of healthcare.
Surely there are some who like their current healthcare insurance. They too will
change their minds once all the facts are explained to them.

Some numbers to add up:
1. profits by health insurers
2. executive compensation packages of health isurers
3. salaries and benefits of millions of staff working at health insurers
4. office staff maintained by doctors to handle paper work for private health insurance
5. Hours spent by billing staff in doctor's offices haggling with insurance companies
(my own wife spent a life long career in medical billing, and she should write a book about the denials, tricks, delays, excuses she had to deal with private health insurance)

Above costs are just the start of hidden cost of private health insurance.
All those dollars can make M4A cost effective AND there will be no one left out!

with defeatists attitudes!

I love Elizabeth Warren, but she cannot win PA, MI, and WI, and it's fantasy to think otherwise.

There's a long way to go in this primary let alone the presidential election. Support can shift.

I'll vote for Warren i we nominate her, but Trump will win.

The polls also show that several Dem candidates are largely favored over Trump, and that was BEFORE the Ukranian scandal.

We're taking a terrible, terrible risk.

Stopped him in his tracks.

Excepting Bernie, whomever shows strongest in these states has my $$, vote, and volunteer time. Would think we’d all know by now, popular vote does not equal presidency.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=edit&forum=1287&thread=282316

My stated support from the beginning was for the candidate that I believe to be most likely to win in 2020. I also state regularly that I'm putting no stock in national matchups since it's painfully obvious we cannot count on these as they reflect the popular vote more than the Electoral college vote. Below is a look at each of the battleground states, and how the most recent matchup polls in those states are looking.

The below is ordered by the number of EC votes given.

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from June 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2629
Biden: +9 win
Warren: +4 win
Sanders: +6 win

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Quinnipiac from July 2019
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh07252019_omwb36.pdf/
Biden: +8 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -1 loss

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

The above are all of the most recent polls, that covered matchups between all 3 candidates and Trump at the RCP site.

Below is what the matchup results above would look like on the 270 to win map. If within the margin of error, color remains battleground, if a narrow win light blue, if a solid win (6 points or more) dark blue.

Joe Biden map



Elizabeth Warren map



Bernie Sanders map


Very pleased that when it does come down to the critical states (as of latest matchup polls) all 3 of our front running candidates have the ability to take on Cheetolini!

The maps you show are based on old polls.

Building that thing takes time, I usually pull it together during my lunch hour during the week about 1x ever couple weeks.

I will be very happy with either Biden or Senator Warren, I look forward to putting my next one together.

I didn’t do the full charting, but just did a quick run through the 4x biggest of Pennsylvania (no updated poll), Wisconsin (no updated poll), Ohio (no updated poll), Michigan (no updated poll), and Florida. Florida was the only one with an updated poll, and it actually looks like she lost her 4 point lead to a tie now with a Florida atlantic poll added to RCP. I’m not sure I’d put a LOT of stock in the Florida Atlantic one compared to Quinnipiac, but it is the only one I saw right offhand with updated data.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_warren-6844.html

I don’t ask this as a challenge to your assertion, but an earnest interest in being accurate in these critical states.

my only point was, Biden is losing ground if only slightly, while Warren seems to be gaining in polls.

So if we wait a month or 2, RCP averages would change.

TBH she would be my preferred candidate, but she will not win. I can’t believe people are so naive. She will not win. Sheesh people.

Or is this simply a seat of the pants observation with no facts to back it up?

She will not win. Let’s not be naive. We will lose the rust belt. She will be portrayed as a socialist, school marm. By the time they finish with her some democratic voters will hate her and they won’t even know why.

Obama II, and I can see Trump repeating at every rally "do you want Obama policies repeated?".
And how is Warren a socialist? M4A is already popular in the population with healthcare costs bankrupting more families than any other reason.

At the end of the day it’s going to be about turnout. Obama II sounds pretty friggin good to AAs, particularly older AAs who are more reliable voters. I’m not arguing whether her policies are socialist it will be easy o portray her as a left coast, egg head socialist school marm. Mainstream America is not going to go for her when they get done with her. She. will. lose. GOP is salivating and hoping she will get the nod.

That thing Reagan did, where he made people think he was the dad who really cared about them? She has it too.