Despite this being the worst stretch of his presidency, only Biden beats him comfortably. I think Warren can beat Trump but it's very concerning that her numbers against him have not even budged despite her numbers improving with Democrats. Frankly, I think Warren vs Trump would prove a very tight race similar to 2016 and I'm terrified of that because, while I think she can beat Trump, just as I thought Hillary could, at this point, I'd put her chances of doing so at 50/50 and that, again, is with this being the worst stretch of Trump's presidency and Warren receiving nearly universal positive coverage for the last couple months.

And no, it's not just a name recognition thing anymore. That excuse could have been valid two or three months ago but the polls are all coalescing around a central theme: Biden does far better, consistently, than any other Democratic candidate.

Biden is +7 in this poll.
Warren is +2
Bernie is +4

Bernie's name recognition is just as high as Biden and he only does two-points better than Warren and three-points worse than Biden.

IMO, I think Warren is turning out to be a very similar candidate that Hillary was at this point in the race. Someone who can win - but will find herself in such a close race with Trump that any negative shift could deliver him the White House (again). That scares me.

https://www.investors.com/politics/elizabeth-warren-overtakes-joe-biden-democratic-presidential-nomination-race/






Also troubling is this (and bear in mind I think Biden is more electable than Warren, and Warren gives Rump a far easier shot to win reelection.)



Joe Biden Caught In Ukraine Crossfire

Joe Biden's election prospects appeared to take a hit from allegations hurled by Trump that are at the center of the House Democrats' impeachment probe. A loose transcript of a July 25 call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed a whistleblower's claim that Trump asked him to investigate Biden and son Hunter's dealings in the country in 2016.

The October IBD/TIPP Poll found 57%-37% support for a Justice Department investigation of Biden and his son regarding their actions in Ukraine and China.

By comparison, Americans supported the House impeachment inquiry, 55%-44%. Half of Americans said Trump's Ukraine actions are an impeachable offense, vs. 46% who say they are not. Still, Trump's job approval rating rose 4 points to 43%, even as his biggest political scandal erupted.

Really useful analysis. Many thanks.

Biden still has a significant lead, tho.

I wish I had better answers as to how he should do this, but I am very worried that if Warren is the nominee we will have that asshole Schultz (hopefully not Bloomberg) jump in as a spoiler, and big banking/pharma/insurance/healthcare/etc. work behind the scenes to scupper her campaign.

It is an unacceptable risk IMHO. The stakes are too high.

I don't understand how Joe can still have a huge advantage amongst African- Americans ( 23% of the 2016 Dem Primary Vote) and be tied with Elizabeth ...He should still be ahead by around 5%-6% ….. The media are fully on board with her campaign and that is not fair to the other candidates …...It's just one puff piece after another and this has been going on for months .. Journalists Do your job