Bernie is going to keep most of the folks for him.

The ones he does lose will spread out, some to Biden, some to Warren, some to others, but it's not like he's going to drop into single digits nationwide anytime soon.

We don't know how people will react, frankly. People who are being polled are generally not active campaigners or supporters. They are just average people stating a preference.

and that's a number that I strongly suspect will remain in the low double digits.

When he was in the mid 20s, sure, about half of that was just folks voting on name recognition.

The other half was his core, and I don't think he loses that core.

is useless. We're not talking about full-on supporters of a candidate - just people saying they'd vote for a particular person. There is an enormous difference.

Polling companies are not, for example, choosing people to be polled from Democratic Underground. That would be a useless poll in terms of predicting how the primary elections will go. We have our own poll here, where people choose who they would vote for. It doesn't really resemble the polls being reported on very much.

So, yes, active supporters of Bernie Sanders might not change their preference, but they're not the ones being polled, either.

In any case, we'll have some actually polling to look at soon. Already, Sanders is dropping in most polls, with Warren and Biden apparently each getting some of those preferences.

people being polled are representative of cohorts like age, race, likelihood to vote, gender...not about whether or not they are "full-on supporters of a candidate."

Mostly, they are the people a polling company could get to answer a phone and answer a polling question (which tends to self-select for people who are politically active to at least some extent).

The polling companies are not somehow screening out active supporters of a candidate.

They don't have to. There just aren't that many of those out there. A random sampling is unlikely to include many active supporters of a particular candidate.

it's a non-random sampling that is then statistically tweaked to moderately accurately reflect registered or likely voters particularly by demographics and past voting practices.

The sample in fact to some extent self selects by those willing to answer the phone and take a poll and those who are not.

This last heart incident will not be kind to Sen. Sanders' poll numbers.

The heart attack report might shift the curve

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

those who weren't strong supporters but the base will remain.

No one but Bernie fans are arguing he's going to win, I'm certainly not.

I'm simply arguing he's not going to drop off the fact of the Earth in polls or in voter support.

He'll still retain some sort of base. I suspect low double digits, but I suppose high single digits is possible.

But he's not dropping down to Booker/Beto/Klobachur territory.

They are exact opposites on a plethora of issues. They will likely go to Warren, Castro, or Yang.

they vote on feel, or familiarity, or name recognition or I just like X.

last several months - so, it appears as if they are drawing from the same pool...

I'm talking about what people being polled will say, either way. We'll be seeing what happens shortly.

they will go to a variety of voters. Plenty of evidence that some will go to Warren, but also some will go to Biden, and some will go to Harris.

If he seems like his old self in the next debate - strong in mind and sound in body- those numbers will rebound ...If not, those numbers will continue to decline

like I've said, I don't think he's dropping to the bottom really ever, but I also don't think he will rebound much.

Sanders and yes my candidate Harris have had plenty of time to move up and haven't...don't think it's happening for either of them this time around.

If Bernie looks well and gives a decent performance at the debate, he'll retain his position with his supporters. On the other hand, if he exhibits any loss of stamina, the drip of walkways will most likely turn into a gush.

Think it will pivot on the debate performance.

Sen. Sanders had a tough time in the last debate. If he looks better this time, it will shore up his support.

See the trendline over the last week for yourself at RCP POLLS:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

The Average of the major polls is what the Average of the major polls is.

to decline. Bernie is no longer a contender.

There's a lag in polling between such information and changes.

Bernie dropped off ~4% in the polling average since that hit the news.

But who knows, time will tell.

the ropes before the cardiac event and health problems don't improve anyone's electability.

It's a natural fit





She is winning the DU vote in a landslide, next, the country! lol

I see that trend continuing