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highplainsdem

(48,981 posts)
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 07:44 AM Oct 2019

U of MONTANA Big Sky state GE poll finds only Bullock beating Trump there

This one was done by the University of Montana:

http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/FINALFINALBSP%204.0%20Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf


The poll found Bullock would beat Trump by 4 points, 52-48.

All the other Democratic candidates would lose to Trump, though Biden would do best of those, losing by 7 points, compared to 8 for Sanders, 9 for Warren and 10 for Harris.

Biden, Sanders and Warren beat Trump in Montana among women voters, but with Biden winning women voters by 3 points while Sanders wins that vote by just over one point and Warren wins women's support there by just over one half of one percent.

But all three of our top candidates get less than 40% support from Montana men.

Bullock ties Trump with male voters, and beats him by more than 6 points with women voters.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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U of MONTANA Big Sky state GE poll finds only Bullock beating Trump there (Original Post) highplainsdem Oct 2019 OP
It's Montana Bettie Oct 2019 #1
Probably true, MontanaFarmer Oct 2019 #3
Some resources, maybe a little more than usual Bettie Oct 2019 #5
Obama won nationally by large margins Polybius Oct 2019 #11
I'm sticking with landslide, MontanaFarmer Oct 2019 #12
The best chance in the nearby future for a true EC 400+ landslide might be 2020 Polybius Oct 2019 #14
I agree. MontanaFarmer Oct 2019 #15
I said a while back rpannier Oct 2019 #2
Bullock is one of our better candidates randr Oct 2019 #4
I think he'd be doing much better in the polls -- as would Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Harris, highplainsdem Oct 2019 #6
I would give them "superstars in the media" at best randr Oct 2019 #7
Lots of land... MattInMN Oct 2019 #8
Bullock should be running for that Senate seat against Daines RhodeIslandOne Oct 2019 #9
What this says to me is . . . peggysue2 Oct 2019 #10
You know what this tells me? NYC Democrat Oct 2019 #13
Montana...so...... boomer_wv Oct 2019 #16
Bullock needs to run for Senate,here are the internals of this poll that show this Celerity Oct 2019 #17
Considering Trump won Montana by 21-points in '16 this is a good result book_worm Oct 2019 #18
So. MrsCoffee Oct 2019 #19
 

Bettie

(16,109 posts)
1. It's Montana
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 07:50 AM
Oct 2019

when was the last time they voted for a Democrat in a presidential election?

Wait, looked it up: Lyndon Johnson. Clinton won by a plurality, but there was a third party candidate in the mix who split the Right wing vote.

We're not winning Montana. Not in my lifetime anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MontanaFarmer

(630 posts)
3. Probably true,
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 08:02 AM
Oct 2019

but we can be an indicator of how the election is playing nationally. Obama 2008 came within a point or 2 of mccain and won a landslide nationally. 2012 he did considerably worse here and won a much closer election. 2016, Hillary lost by 21 points here. So i agree, no resources here, but it can be instructive nonetheless.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Bettie

(16,109 posts)
5. Some resources, maybe a little more than usual
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 08:07 AM
Oct 2019

but not a huge push.

This is a state where there were more "did not vote" than people who did, so there is room for improvement.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Polybius

(15,421 posts)
11. Obama won nationally by large margins
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 02:42 PM
Oct 2019

However, I wouldn't call it a true landslide in 2008. If we call it a landslide, than what is 1964, 1972, 1984, and 1988?

Probably 400 EV's would meet the criteria of landslide.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MontanaFarmer

(630 posts)
12. I'm sticking with landslide,
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 03:12 PM
Oct 2019

due to the polarized nature of our political system. A true electoral landslide, where 400+ evs are in play, may not occur again in my lifetime. Given the history he was running against, and the country's polarity, I'm comfortable with the term, but only in the context of the era.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Polybius

(15,421 posts)
14. The best chance in the nearby future for a true EC 400+ landslide might be 2020
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 10:41 PM
Oct 2019

But I do agree, the days of massive landslides are over. The country is way to divided now. Likewise, we'll probably never see one Party with over 60 Senators again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

MontanaFarmer

(630 posts)
15. I agree.
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 11:19 PM
Oct 2019

2008-2010 was such a unique opportunity, but even then the challenges of the Senate and the purple states required for such a majority were evident (Baucus, Nelson, Lincoln, Landrieu all opposing various components of ACA). It may come around again but it will take folks awakening to a financial and governmental system that has stolen their wealth and their political power.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

rpannier

(24,329 posts)
2. I said a while back
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 08:02 AM
Oct 2019

If the nominee were Warren or Klobucar, then Bullock would be a good choice. I think he still would be
Though I'm not sure he'd agree to run with Sen Warren
Biden and Bullock might have a catchy nickname -- Killer B's or something, but I think he should look elsewhere.
Where and Who? I am not sure right now

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

randr

(12,412 posts)
4. Bullock is one of our better candidates
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 08:02 AM
Oct 2019

and we should be giving him a better vetting.
He is a man who speaks to the masses as is so commonly said about the lsos.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(48,981 posts)
6. I think he'd be doing much better in the polls -- as would Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Harris,
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 08:09 AM
Oct 2019

O'Rourke and Booker -- if we didn't have three candidates who've been superstars in the party for years.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

randr

(12,412 posts)
7. I would give them "superstars in the media" at best
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 08:13 AM
Oct 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MattInMN

(39 posts)
8. Lots of land...
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 01:12 PM
Oct 2019

...only 3 electoral votes. More cows than people. Suck it Donnie Dollhands.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
9. Bullock should be running for that Senate seat against Daines
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 01:17 PM
Oct 2019

I have no doubt he'd win easily.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

peggysue2

(10,829 posts)
10. What this says to me is . . .
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 01:39 PM
Oct 2019

even in red states Democrats can be successful with. . . the right candidate. Bullock is a moderate Dem and was/is a popular Governor. Jon Tester outsmarted Trump in the 2018 midterms and won reelection. Again, he is the right kind of candidate for his particular red state.

Same with the national election. We need the candidate with the widest, largest appeal, the candidate who can rack up the largest numbers in the states we need to win back. Because the final battlefield will be the electoral college, a repeat of 2016. The largest numbers will also offset the GOP's (and their friends') highjinks, another attempt to screw with our election results.

As for Bullock the candidate? I've actually liked what I've heard from the man thus far. I just haven't heard enough.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NYC Democrat

(295 posts)
13. You know what this tells me?
Tue Oct 8, 2019, 05:04 PM
Oct 2019

He should go run for Senate and flip us a seat.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
16. Montana...so......
Wed Oct 9, 2019, 12:14 AM
Oct 2019

The most important thing in this poll is that the worst candidate position in the poll is Harris at -10. Clinton lost Montana by 21.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(43,383 posts)
17. Bullock needs to run for Senate,here are the internals of this poll that show this
Wed Oct 9, 2019, 12:25 AM
Oct 2019

The US Senate (and Ballard has dropped out, so it is even worse) and MT Governor (Gianforte and Fox) numbers are truly depressing. In the lone House seat, Democrat Williams has a slight lead over the horrid thug Rosendale, although she is far behind when Rethug Stapleton's numbers are added in.

Bullock needs to run for Senate!!!!

http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/FINALFINALBSP%204.0%20Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf






If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

book_worm

(15,951 posts)
18. Considering Trump won Montana by 21-points in '16 this is a good result
Wed Oct 9, 2019, 09:56 AM
Oct 2019

and shows that he is declining even in so-called red states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

MrsCoffee

(5,801 posts)
19. So.
Wed Oct 9, 2019, 09:57 AM
Oct 2019

Lose all the other states and get Montana.

What do we win?



So run for the senate instead.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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