We are not electing an 80 year old man who just had a heart attack.

Warren's success is hers alone. Bernie has nothing to do with it.

I like how she is fearlessly going into red country to meet democrats there.

Draw a line down from the left of the "B" in "Bullock" to see where the averages were on October 1.

She is not afraid to speak her mind, a fearsome force in the world of politics.

The company behind the non-partisan news site RealClearPolitics has been secretly running a Facebook page filled with far-right memes and Islamophobic smears, The Daily Beast has learned.

Still a "Joe" guy, but she is clearly a well-prepared candidate. I'll vote for whoever has a "D" behind them 2020

area of domestic economic policy. Given the utter mess Trump has made of foreign policy and relations, I would hope she could up her game there, though I’d feel much safer with Biden.

She was a very able legislator, has much to give based on wide knowledge of economics, but the presidency entails multiple leadership duties outside what she has carved out as her sphere.

I will have to listen to more of what she has to say about issues other than her economic proposals.

Biden - 27.2 on October 1, 26.4, -0.2
Warren - 23.0 on October 1, 26.6, +3.6
Sanders - 17.8 on October 1, 14.8, -3.0

All the others +/- a tenth or two.

Warren's increase is almost all at the expense of Sanders.

and are now counting IDB/Tipp (Bernie at 10%) in their average ….Quinnipiac and Morning Consult show no change in support for Bernie …. These averages are greatly weighed by which polls they include in their aggregate numbers at any given time …...

slightly ahead. She’s taking the voters from Sanders. Biden still does best in Trump match-ups. Her
rise over Sanders is the most significant news.

I am sure this will fluctuate some as different pollsters release results, the significant thing is the progress Warren has been making.

I’m not getting overly excited whether she’s up or down. It still feels too early and I do happen to have positive views of most of our primary field.

I'm no statistician, but that trajectory is unmistakeable.

Also, notice that Trump's approval spread stands at -14 in the latest poll.

poll, versus the last one.

Its a 4 point drop. People might see that "33%" and not realize it's going from +12% to +8% over Trump.

I believe the margin of error is +/-3.1% for that part of the poll.

And the previous Q poll had a 4.6% moe, so comparing the differences from poll to poll is slightly messy.

So, is it statistically significant? Maybe. Maybe not.

As for MOE, yes, an 8 point lead is still outside the potential spread, but people cannot trumpet the headline number (Warren up over Biden) and then also try (NOT saying you are doing this at all btw) to downplay the exact same poll in it's other numbers. That is disingenuous at best, and is something I almost never see from Warren supporters.

I think I didn't explain myself well before... Here is the point I was trying to make:

This Q poll, Warren is +8 over Trump, +/- 3.1%.
That's a 95% confidence range of 4.9% to 11.1%

The previous Q poll, Warren was at 12% over Trump, +/-4.6%
That's a 95% confidence range of 7.4% to 16.6%

The two ranges do overlap significantly, hence I asked, is the difference of 4% from the previous poll statistically significant?

At this point we can't say which poll is the better predictor, but based on it's smaller moe, the most recent poll (Warren +8 over Trump) just might be a more accurate prediction.

In plain English, yeah, lets keep an eye on that, but don't we expect fluctuations like this considering the margins of error involved?

with our election, but that their candidate can win the primary if Trump succeeds.

Once Trump picks off Biden to get the candidate he thinks more vulnerable in the GE to win the primary, he takes that untarnished one and unloads all the ammo he has saved up. He knows already that candidate’s weaknesses in the GE.

Yes. There are those dancing a jig that Trump could choose who he wants to run against because in
their eyes their candidate is so powerful, so lovable, s/he will win anywhere s/he needs to and conquer the Trump machine as no other mere mortal could.

Most media and even some Republicans have been hammering Trump for his actions against Biden.

This poll trajectory started before the story broke.

I do think Biden has a resurgence in him. When the full story of Trump’s Ukraine plot against Biden becomes known, it may even spark the resurgence.

the scary story here. He has succeeded in damaging the front runner and all others in head-to-heads.

I noticed this when Hillary was running. There's no doubt Warren is rising but I don't believe she has taken the lead over Biden as indicated on the RCP website. I notice there is a recent Harris/Rass poll missing which had Biden +18 and another Biden + 14 not included in the average. They would never miss including a Rass poll for Trump.

Are they playing games with the poll?

“RealClear Media Has a Secret Facebook Page to Push Far-Right Memes”

“The company behind the non-partisan news site RealClearPolitics has been secretly running a Facebook page filled with far-right memes and Islamophobic smears, The Daily Beast has learned.

Called “Conservative Country,” the Facebook page was founded in 2014 and now boasts nearly 800,000 followers for its mix of Donald Trump hagiography and ultra-conservative memes. One recent post showed a man training two assault rifles at a closed door with the caption “Just sitting here waiting on Beto.” Others wink at right-wing conspiracy theories about Barack Obama’s “ties to Islam” or the Clintons having their enemies killed, or portray Muslim members of Congress as terrorist infiltrators. The page is effusive with praise for Vladimir Putin, and one post portrays Russia as the last bastion of freedom in Europe.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes

can you guess who their new target will be? We know their attacks don't have to be true, but just an inkling of truth distorted out of all recognizable proportion to be picked up by the M$M. Just a note of warning to those popping the champagne corks.