💘

She’s up by 8% in a single poll, up by 2% in another, and up by 4.5% overall.

I like Warren, but let’s not play fast-and-loose with the numbers to try to make your case.

where she can't win!!!!

This is a perfect encapsulation if that argument.

That can't excite voters under the age of 30.
It's time to pass the torch.

Last edited Wed Oct 9, 2019, 02:45 AM - Edit history (2)

Warren has zero foreign policy knowledge, interest, or experience. That lack is risky in our perilous times. Obama also needed some cred in world affairs. He took Biden aboard in part for his FP experience. She also needs much more AA electorate support.

Overall her message is resonating with a lot of people.
I like that she’s speaking to issues that appeal to younger voters.
That’s the future of the party.
Time to pass the torch.

not represent passing it. If she can grow our party with younger members, great.

I am not seeing her picking up the AA support she needs, but the night is young.

Definitely been picking up from Sanders.

You can support the closest to your own position.
Warren is closest to mine. I see it as a two
Person race. As long as she’s in, she’s my candidate.
I would suggest that if she wins the nomination, then more Democrats preferred her.
I prefer her positions over Biden’s. I’m not voting against anybody in a primary.

as will eventually happen, it's over for Joe. Bold progressivism beats moderate incrementalism every time!!


Bernie & Elizabeth 2020!! or
Elizabeth & Bernie 2020!!
Either way, they're stronger together!!
Welcome to the revolution!!!

what do you mean by that?

😏

handle disagreements with fellow Democrats. Your say so is not going to stop people from critiquing her as all the candidates are.

Some of us here may not feel Warren is as compelling a figure as her followers think her, may disagree with her policy suite in sum, and in some parts, but haters is a bit strong of a word over our not having an unquestioning allegiance to her and her ideas. We can warm up rapidly if she is the nominee.

Exercising our critical faculties is not a loss of restraint, an outburst, and we are not
little children to be scolded. Just say you don’t agree, don’t like what someone says. Don’t shame and scold.

However, that wasn't the case in 2018, and it wasn't the case when Obama was the candidate.
I'm of the opinion that the youth vote turns out for a candidate that fires them up.
Warren's policies speak directly to them.

do go to rallies, express tremendous enthusiasm for a candidate but this does not always correlate
with voting behavior. We can’t say the youth vote will make up for a loss of a percentage of older
voters.

Those on Medicare who have a supplementary plan or one provided by their retirement benefits may not want to see those plans which bring coverage to 100 percent abolished. In the same way,
older voters might not be on board for student debt cancellation as much as millennials.

No age group’s vote should be taken for granted. Boomers have numbers.

Now Sanders does include the goal of long-term care coverage in his healthcare planning. Old people have futures too, hah hah.

According to the joint exit poll results, more 18-29 yrs voted in total, than 65+ in every GE since 1976.

the prospect of losing insurance plans i,e, choice in healthcare won’t motivate an older vote to sit
it out or to vote for Trump. And sure Warren and Sanders have a bigger share of AA youth votes than Biden, but he has still greater AA support.

If this election hinges on youth, Sanders then is the one we should all vote for. But it does not.
It’s the EC.

not come up short of what I already have, and can even be better than what I have. Warren is too smart and too caring to pull something like that. I plan to try and help her in our CT primary and hope she wins.

Here's Warren on health care earlier this year:

"How do we get universal coverage? Medicare for all. Lots of paths for how to do that. But we know where we are aiming. And that is, every American has health care at a price they can afford. And that the overall costs in the system are held as low as possible.

I’ve signed onto Medicare for All. I’ve signed on to another one that gives an option for buying in to Medicaid. There are different ways we can get there. But the key has to be always keep the center of the bullseye in mind. And that is affordable health care for every American."

---

As for AA support, you are mistaking the width of Biden's support for its depth. And wildly overstating the "Never Warren" mentality - her favorability is quite high in that community.

change. But her prospects in the GE do seriously worry me. Losing 70 million votes could give us
Trump. Millions upon millions do not want to give up their employer or retirement benefits provided plans.

Warren:

How do we get universal coverage? Medicare for all. Lots of paths for how to do that. But we know where we are aiming. And that is, every American has health care at a price they can afford. And that the overall costs in the system are held as low as possible.

So right now, there are multiple bills on the floor in the United States Senate. I’ve signed onto Medicare for All. I’ve signed on to another one that gives an option for buying in to Medicaid. There are different ways we can get there. But the key has to be always keep the center of the bullseye in mind. And that is affordable health care for every American.

Warren should commit to protecting it.

But anyway that doesn’t give folks with great employer provided group plans or retirement benefits provided plans what they want—their great affordable or in the case of vesting, free, plans.

These plans were negotiated in lieu of higher salaries. In some cases, many in fact, if vested your Medicare fee is paid back to your pension and your additional plan premium is paid for completely.
This is for life, so not job dependent.

Single-payer in England allows people to carry private insurance through employment. About 10 percent do.

The other 2 front runners don't have that much energy.

her and I have concerns about her policies and her qualifications, which are not as strong as Biden’s, but I am not motivated by fear in supporting him. I do not like the shaming.

you ever hear of the Consumer Protection Agency? Biden does not excite me. Like I said before, I will vote for any Democratic nominee but to question her qualifications is absurd. Biden is not a safe bet either. His gaffes are alarming and he ran twice before without getting more than 2 % support. Status quo is not going to cut it for me and millions of other voters who are struggling.

has to lead the free world. She has no particular presidential qualifications, certainly nothing on the
foreign policy side. Biden is the candidate with far, far more job-specific qualifications as he was a
heart-beat away from the presidency.

I hear nothing from her about how she will protect Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, all under threat NOW, while her plans, if any can be implemented, won’t kick in for years. Her solution
to our dwindling SS bank with 10,000 boomers a day becoming eligible is to give everyone, rich
and poor, 200 more per month?

Investment in infrastructure?

Investment in community colleges?

Yes or no, taxes will be raised on middle class pay for M4All? Wealth tax alone will not cover all the array of programs she has in mind.

I’ll vote for our nominee. I’m not voting for a status quo candidate in the primary.
I’ve had enough same old same.

A Representative for 7 years and a Senator for 3 years. No foreign policy experience. Just an ability to fire up the base.

Warren served as chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel of the Troubled Asset Relief Program and was instrumental in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, of which she served as the first Special Advisor under President Obama.

She has been an influential Senator for 7 years, the first woman ever elected to the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts, where she has served on the powerful Senate Banking Committee.

In a gilded age that gives new meaning to the term "filthy rich," Warren is uniquely placed to curb the influence of the untethered plutocrats who are destroying the foundations of our democracy.

That's her qualifications.

supporters see her as Obama-like in brilliance, ability to inspire multitudes, charisma, speaking ability—his was a gift to rival all noted speakers in the last many, many decades. She even reverse-ages thirty years in their eyes.

But just no. No comparison. His memoirs, published before he became president, reflect a depth of life experience, an ability for self-reflection, an insight one might call emotional intelligence, and a
far ranging intellectual curiosity she has of yet not demonstrated.

It simply is not an apt comparison to set her inexperience at governing against his. He also was not running on an extensive series of proposals that could kill him among moderate independents,
Swing voters, and in the rust belt.

I think if she modifies her embrace of M4All, prunes her proposals and prioritizes them, she will have a better shot in the GE.

Warren:

How do we get universal coverage? Medicare for all. Lots of paths for how to do that. But we know where we are aiming. And that is, every American has health care at a price they can afford. And that the overall costs in the system are held as low as possible.

So right now, there are multiple bills on the floor in the United States Senate. I’ve signed onto Medicare for All. I’ve signed on to another one that gives an option for buying in to Medicaid. There are different ways we can get there. But the key has to be always keep the center of the bullseye in mind. And that is affordable health care for every American.

I do think some of Warren’s policies are losers in the General.

I said support the candidate you love. If you love Biden, I'm totally behind that.

May the best man win.

cowardice insult. Well, we don’t think we are cowards or supporting a cowardly candidate. I frankly
don’t like fellow Democratic voters making up a false choice between bold and cowardly policies,
I might describe the choices differently—doable and not, responsible and irresponsible, bound to raise middle class taxes and not going to, necessary and unnecessary, will take dollars from other needs or not, etc.

Memes are good for fighting a mutual enemy. Using these slogans to attack fellow democratic voters’ choices is not seemly.

I didn't say any of those things. I said pretty clearly that you should choose the candidate that you best see fit - in terms of policy, vision, etc.

If you think it is Biden, that's great. I never said anything remotely about "cowardly" policies or whatever.

Fearmongering that Warren will get Trump reelected because this group or that will sit out the election strikes me as "unseemly." If you don't like her policies, then just say so and give your reasons. But playing on the fears of Dems suffering PTSD from 2016 is not going to fly - Warren is clearly ahead of Trump now, whether you like it or not.

“Time to get behind the candidate you love, rather than voting with your fears!” I mean ok I paraphrased. But projected? I am wagging my finger. Don’t gaslight. Ha ha. Maybe the fear
part about voting is not yours. I took it as yours.

It's much easier that way to avoid supporting our statements with any evidence. Again.

hmmmm.. I wonder?!

Fear is definitely a meme they are running with, and have been for some time. Maybe the victim card needs to stop too.

just kidding... my guess is you'll rationalize an excuse why you can't and pretend it's someone else's responsibility. Again.

people".

"...but people in the "rust belt" are too backwards to get it..."

but better trade agreements why we will get better deals...no we won't, and if we did they won't be enforced. and the condescension of her supporters towards rust belt voters and the AA community as demonstrated on social media (they will vote for us no matter what). will cause us to lose in the electoral college in the states we need if she is the candidate. I am not talking about you by the way. I hope Biden is the nominee. and we destroy Trump. Warren has my vote and support in the general, but I want to win...it is way more important to me than any candidate. And by the way...FYI, I like Biden better than Warren and believe he will be a better president.

I live in the Midwest... the condescension is coming from you. "disrespect shown by Warren with her totally inept plans for the mid west" and "Condescension of her supporters towards rust belt voters." What a bunch of complete nonsense. Do better! I don't think Biden is the best candidate but I wouldn't dream of posting nonsense like that about him. Do better!

I like a lot of what Liz has to say, but that 2007 video is going to create lots of problems for her on the credibility issue.

BREAKING NEWS: Some women do not "show, seem visibly pregnant to the casual observer, for several months during their pregnancy.

So, basically, they "re-hired" Warren early on, but then eased her out the door when she started to be visibly pregnant.

What was the supposed controversy again?

Good news for both.

So we can afford to choose the one we prefer, not trying to imagine what our neighbors are not ready for based on 2016 PTSD.

A straight shot between Warren and Biden. Whoever is the one we truly prefer should win. I'm totally down for that. If it is Biden, so be it.

Game changer. If it was too hard to find at the top of the RCP list, here it is.

It's the same highly-rated poll that shows Warren winning 29% to Biden's 26% and puts her as the new frontrunner in the RCP average. Does that help?

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3643

in that poll. Yes, I see according to THIS poll, the 29 to Biden 26, but another average I saw was not even a whole percentage point ahead of him, so they were co-frontrunners, She’s picking up
from Sanders.

Biden still ahead in Trump matchup.

Which I imagine, helps you quite often.

Warren had not yet been vetted. trump took his best shot at Biden and it blew up.

South Carolina?

with your fears!.."

I loved Joe Biden as President Obama's VP but I got to love him and know him more now as he's running for President 2020. All kinds of good things are coming out about his history and what he's done for America and her people.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

community college, Sierra Club endorsed climate change plan AND has a raft of accomplishments
as Obama’s VP. Also, for “the moment we are in,” has foreign policy experience, respect on the
world stage. Thanks Cha for great post.

That their candidate will never be accepted by their neighbors.

Funny how many of the people who regularly fearmonger around here are some gleaning that my "true" message is that supporting Biden is "cowardly." Couldn't be further from the truth. If you are a centrist, go with the centrist candidate. Whatever floats your boat.

But the latest polling shows that Warren is a viable candidate who can (also) beat Trump like a drum. So, wrap the doomsday scenarios in a bag and throw it off a cliff. Just get behind your candidate and make the case for her or him.

others? "..rather than voting with your fears!"

Might surprise you.

Which country will be asked to "investigate" one of Senator Warren's children, maybe even a grandkid or two. I hope that none of the kiddies unknowingly walked out on a bar tab in some previously unheard of country.

in some parts of the country.

Donald Trump is, has been, always was, and will be shown to be a festering maggot that would betray anyone. Those farmers for him, good luck to them if they don't already have massive scale. Autoworkers, if you want your issues seriously considered, vote for whichever democrat we nominate.

I see a couple of people who actually use the phrase “he is the only one” but most of them seem to use the polls as a talking point. Why wouldn’t they? It’s what you are doing here. There is no reason to not tout it if polls say you are the strongest to take on Trump.

Good on Warren. Poo poo on the comment about another candidates supporters motives.

aggregate poll. Biden is still perceived as frontrunner in a Trump match up.

I think we are in a pretty good position.

Outside of the fact the President is a traitor, of course.

Just be happy for Warren.. no need to insult other people's candidates.

Link to tweet

points he beats Trump by.

Eviscerates Trump on the debate stage.

You can be sure that she will campaign in the Rust Belt far more than Clinton, whose top campaign staff were murderously inept.

And don't worry too much about M4A, she's already said that she's open to a buy-in option.

she can't win the electoral college. The right has successfully painted her as a socialist.

and people hear what she has to say that she will become more and more popular.

Warren would spend $400 billion over a decade on what she dubbed the "Green Apollo" program, which would focus on clean energy research and development. That would be paired with plans to promote the use of those technologies in the U.S. and abroad.

Warren would help create domestic demand for new American products through $1.5 trillion in federal procurement over a decade.

“The federal government’s World War II-era commitment to purchasing military items led to an enormous surge in American manufacturing capacity and set the stage for decades of sustained economic growth,” Warren wrote, arguing the government should stock its fleet with electric and energy-efficient vehicles and other products. “This will create immediate demand, spurring innovation and investment in the American clean energy sector.”

Companies supplying those goods under a federal contract would need to offer a $15 an hour wage, 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave, and guarantee collective bargaining rights.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/446852-warren-unveils-2-trillion-green-jobs-plan

Edited to change "Greed" to "Green" lol

naivete -- they don't seem to realize Warren (or whoever their preferred candidate is) can be smeared as well -- and a lack of party loyalty.

as he’s not doing it to THEIR candidate.

Biden is still beating Trump handily. The difference now is that Warren is also taking a giant lead. Be happy for our side.

If you want to be upset, you'd be better off looking at the poll showing Biden's steady 15 percentage point decline from May.

Then compare it to Warren's 18.8 percentage point climb in the same time from.

That's not Trump's damage. That is one campaign doing amazingly well over a long period of time while another falters during a long period of time.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

your Useless insulting meme.. "..rather than voting with your fears!.."

This is a thread about a top Democratic candidate polling over Trump. It’s good news! Be happy about it.

by a wide margin, beating Pence by 8 points. Sanders and Warren also outpoll Pence, but by only 2 points, which I assume is well within the MOE.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287298590


Almost all the polling evidence so far indicates Biden is far and away our best candidate in the GE.

Warren... Warren makes me miss HRC.

against the more “moderate” GOPers, assuming there is such a thing. Warren would be defeated, IMO. Warren helped defeat Clinton, again IMO.

your last statement?

Warren was a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton in 2016. They continue to consult with each other even today.

How did Warren help to defeat Clinton?

Unless you can show otherwise, please edit your response.

That America First BS is one of our current Prez's most popular stances.

I think most people believe reneging on TPP, NAFTA, etc., is not one of trump's smartest moves. Interestingly, Warren calls it "Economic Patriotism," but it's the same thing and treats foreign workers like scabs.

I prefer a Democrat that understands that we live in a global economy and that Nationalism, America Firstism, Economic Patriotism, whatever the populist chooses to call it, it just not acceptable and does not portend well for our long-term economic well being, not to mention it will keep us in hostilities with the rest of the world.

because as it had been negotiated, it had to be voted straight up or down. She was NOT against it in principle.

The part that bothered her was a key provision that should have bothered ALL who negotiated it: that concerning the Investor-State Dispute Settlement clause.

See., e.g.: Warren calls on progressives to help fight TPP

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/elizabeth-warren-trade-tpp-225214

Switzerland does not fall in that category.

I'm sorry, but to me all this "tweaking" is just treating poor foreign workers as scabs. In any event, I did not hear Warren speaking out against trump reneging on the TPP, nor NAFTA and similar trade agreements. So, here we are.

have missed this one: A ridiculous reversal’: Top Democrats who sided with Trump on trade slam TPP move


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/13/elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-slam-trumps-move-on-tpp-trade-deal.html

So yes, here we are.

What Warren wants is for international trade deals to be negotiated with much more transparency.

**********
Btw, just because I divide my time between the US and Switzerland, doesn't mean that I know nothing about poorer countries. Geneva, Switzerland, where I worked for 13 years before "officially" retiring, is the the HQ of the United Nations in Geneva (UNOG) and most UN Specialized Agencies, as well as the WTO. It's where the actual work takes place, rather than the bombast in NYC.

If you don't think that international investment disputes from all over the world are discussed, etc., here, then you will be very surprised. And I myself began my professional career as a Peace Corps Volunteer and, at a much later point, worked as an International Development contractor with the US Agency for International Development (USAID), so yes, I know quite a lot - firsthand - about poverty in foreign countries.

What appalls me today is that there is so much poverty in my own nation. That is criminal and inexcusable, IMO.

and would keep foreign leaders from offering -- or even considering -- innovative ideas that. What did you expect them to do, negotiate an agreement that would help them compete with China in an open forum. Jeeez, there were so many groups -- environmental, labor, etc. -- that Obama appointed to work with the USTR.

It is impossible to negotiate an agreement like that while telling foreign leaders that after they negotiate an agreement in principle we'll be back after it is put up for "tweaking" by every special interest group (no matter how worthy), including xenophobes, hardline America Firsters, etc. I'm sorry, I think she -- Sanders and anyone else who believes that -- is naive. I'm also ticked that good central Americans are being told to go back to their dirt farms, making 50 cents a day, because NAFTA was caught up in the same furor.

We knew every aspect of the agreement, while she was saying it was secret and would remain such for years after adoption. That was not fair to Obama and his Admin, and helped cost us the election.

Even though I cannot support her in the primaries, I will definitely support her in General Election. But will likely have to ask my doc for anxiety meds in anticipation of a loss in November 2020.

and I do not necessarily slavishly support every Warren policy, so yes, I was sorry when the TPP fell through.

But I do try to be fair and, all things considered, I really believe that she is the best candidate. Yes, she has many things to learn, but she has demonstrated that she is a fast learner.

Whatever happens in the primaries, I too will support whoever is the Dem nominee in 2020. I am very glad that we can agree on that.

Clinton's campaign was completely inept, allowing themselves to be beat by a clown of an opponent. There such complacency coming from the campaign, a complacency that would be unthinkable by Elizabeth Warren, the one who stood 4 hours for selfies in a single night.

Here's a handy gif to show how Clinton spent the last 10 weeks. Note how many ties she visits Wisconsin and Michigan.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-last-10-weeks-of-2016-campaign-stops-in-one-handy-gif/

But thank you for illustrating the sort of fearmongering that routinely comes from the Biden supporters around here, telling us their gut says Warren will hand the White House back to Trump, er, I mean Pence.

iation, didn't swing enough votes to contribute to Clinton's loss.

Actually, I support a woman over Biden, but Warren -- and a similar populist, Sanders -- won't win in the General Election, unless it is against a severely wounded trump. I don't think the latter will describe the General Election. You can call it fearmongering, if you wish.

I like Harris and Klobuchar, but they just aren't gaining traction.

Warren is to blame for Clinton loss because she criticized the TARP bailout by Obama? That's why Clinton lost to Mr. Access Hollywood?

It is funny that some Biden people say Warren won't have traction in the Rust Belt, but the very economic populism you talk about has always played well with people ranging from Paul Wellstone to Donald Trump. (the difference being that Wellstone was actually for the people, Trump just liked making empty promises)

When you say Warren "won't" win, that's a pretty categorical term for a feeling in your gut. She beats Trump in Wisconsin, Ohio, and particularly in Michigan - before he's been "severely wounded" (those statewide polls pre-date the Ukraine kerfuffle).

Meanwhile, she is now 8 points clear of Trump nationally. So, the "won't win" doesn't seem very evidence-based.

bash Warren by association with Sanders.

She is NOT Sanders.

indicate she has a fundamental misunderstanding of over 2500 trade agreements since 1959, including trade agreements among countries to which the USA was not party to.

Her "Economic Patriotism" further illustrates her positions.

You keep repeating the same things. Buh-bye.

Warren polling ahead of Trump in one poll by 8 leads to a superthread. For Biden, polling ahead of Trump by 8 is just called Tuesday.

Back in May, Biden was up with 40% and Warren was at 8%. Since then, the two have been on steady trajectories. Not a one-off, but a clear trend.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

This has come as Warren's ability to beat Trump has become increasingly evident. With clear daylight between her and Trump, expect that trend to become even more pronounced.

Based on what? There are numerous polls that show Warren and Trump in a dead heat or Trump ahead, including in battleground states.

You're also just making an assumption that trends will continue. I wouldn't count on it.

It's all about the battleground states that WILL determine who our next POTUS is. Is the only reason I'm still with Biden. When polls show her being our strongest candidate in the battleground states, and I'm onboard the Liz train.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287299279

Florida - 29 electoral votes - Florida Atlantic University - September 2019 (new poll) - MoE 3.1
https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2019/florida-poll-finds-trump-popular-in-the-sunshine-state-while-biden-dominates-democratic-field.php
Biden: -1 loss - Slipped from +9 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Warren: 0 tie - slipped from +4 win from the June Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: -1 loss - slipped from +6 win from the June Quinnipiac poll

Pennsylvania - 20 Electoral votes - Quinnipiac from May 2019 - MoE 4.2 no new poll
https://poll.qu.edu/pennsylvania/release-detail?ReleaseID=2620
Biden: +11 win
Warren: +3 win
Sanders: +7 win

Ohio - 18 electoral votes - Emerson from this past week - MoE 3.2
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/ohio-2020-statistical-dead-heat-with-biden-sanders-and-warren-in-democratic-primary
Biden: +6 win - slipped from +8 win from July Quinnipiac poll
Warren: +4 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll
Sanders: +6 win - gained from -1 loss from July Quinnipiac poll

Michigan - 16 Electoral votes - EPIC-MRA August 2019 Moe 4.0
https://www.woodtv.com/news/elections/mi-poll-dems-top-trump-but-undecideds-could-tip-scale/
Biden: +10 win
Warren: +6 win
Sanders: +4 win

Arizona - 11 electoral votes - OH Predictive insights from August 2019 MoE 4.0
https://ohpredictive.com/press-releases/poll-trumps-job-approval-decreases/
Biden: +2 win
Warren: -1 loss
Sanders: -10 loss

Wisconsin: 10 Electoral votes - Marquette from August 2019 MoE 3.9
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/MLSP53Toplines.pdf
Biden: +9 win
Warren: 0 tie
Sanders: +4 win

As before, here are what the maps would look like assuming these polls were election reality. Within the MoE remains battleground, within 2 points outside the MOE will indicate light blue/red indicating "leans", and >2 points outside the MoE will be solid Blue/Red.

Joe Biden Map


Elizabeth Warren Map


Bernie Sanders Map

.... because it's the logical, common sense thing to do. No better reason than that.

and then further rationalize why you don't need to support your own statements with evidence.

It's the Scientific Method... (as practiced by the 13th century church dogma-- as politics appears to be faith-based institution in far too many cases).