Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,022 posts) Fri Oct 11, 2019, 03:54 PM Oct 2019

538 staff discussion of media coverage being biased for Warren, esp coverage of polls

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-a-problem-with-how-the-media-covers-elizabeth-warren/

natesilver: I’m not sure it’s that complicated? Journalists are disproportionately college educated, so campaigns that are attuned to a college-educated audience are probably going to resonate more with journalists in all sorts of tangible and intangible ways.

Pete Buttigieg has gotten pretty good coverage too, maybe the most favorable after Warren’s. And his supporters are super college educated.

Kamala Harris (also lots of college-educated support) hasn’t gotten great coverage lately, but she’s still probably gotten better coverage than Biden or Bernie Sanders, who are doing MUCH better than she is in the polls!

sarahf: That’s fair. But remember that piece from the New York Times earlier this year that argued that the Democratic electorate on Twitter had an outsized voice in the primary compared to the actual Democratic electorate? Do we think there’s evidence of that happening here?

natesilver: I think that’s also a factor. Journalists spend a lot time on Twitter. And Twitter ********loves******* ❤️ Elizabeth Warren.

clare.malone: I mean, Biden’s team loves to talk about this: how their strategy is to give voice to the people not on Twitter — largely older voters, voters of color or voters without a college education.

natesilver: I think those critiques from Biden’s team are mostly valid. And you see it in the polling coverage. I’d argue that polls that show Warren tied or ahead of Biden generate tons of coverage. The ones that still show Biden ahead don’t.

clare.malone: I agree.

-snip-

natesilver: But polls are fairly simple, objective facts. So when you see certain types of polls hyped up and others ignored, that’s a relatively clean indication of the biases of the moment.

sarahf: Which polls do you think are being ignored Nate?

Biden just got one good poll in South Carolina, and it got some coverage, no?

natesilver: Really? Biden got a pretty good (Fox News) poll in Wisconsin this weekend, and it got almost no coverage.

The Morning Consult poll that still shows Biden well ahead of Warren nationally gets very little coverage. The HarrisX polls that show the same thing don’t, either.

clare.malone: Biden’s polling news cycles have tended to focus more on general election head-to-heads, I think.

natesilver: Yeah, Biden’s general election polls do get some coverage, and they probably shouldn’t! Because those polls don’t mean all that much at this stage! But early primary polls are reasonably predictive, and if you were just reading Twitter, you’d get the sense that Biden had crashed. He hasn’t really though — he’s fallen by just a couple of points in the averages, while Warren has risen a lot.

-snip-

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

20 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

538 staff discussion of media coverage being biased for Warren, esp coverage of polls (Original Post) highplainsdem Oct 2019 OP

The Media have fallen in Love with Liz ritapria Oct 2019 #1

Read that article yesterday peggysue2 Oct 2019 #2

I agree wholeheartedy with this part UncleNoel Oct 2019 #20

Biden 41% and Warren 8% in May, Biden Drops 14% and Warren Gains 18% DrFunkenstein Oct 2019 #3

Glad to see Silver speak to the media bias which favors Warren while underestimating Biden. I emmaverybo Oct 2019 #4

Nate loves the HarrisX poll that he rated C+ bluewater Oct 2019 #5

Harris is listed in the tracker. TwilightZone Oct 2019 #7

The Hill / Harris is listed in the tracker, not the almost daily HarrisX polls. bluewater Oct 2019 #10

Daily tracking polls aren't included in the RCP tracker. TwilightZone Oct 2019 #11

So, what is the distinction between The Hill/HarrisX and the daily HarrisX polls? bluewater Oct 2019 #13

when all you've got is lemons... Voltaire2 Oct 2019 #6

Like Biden's 10-point lead over Warren in the latest Fox News poll? highplainsdem Oct 2019 #8

Doesn't Nate say you should look at an average of the polls? bluewater Oct 2019 #12

Actually there are "lemons" in the OP.. Cha Oct 2019 #15

Media bashing!1! Conspiracy!W1 Hassin Bin Sober Oct 2019 #9

Nate is not doing so great as a pundit... bluewater Oct 2019 #14

No he isn't. Cha Oct 2019 #16

Very truthful discussion n/t PhoenixDem Oct 2019 #17

Meh. BlueWI Oct 2019 #18

Oh dear, BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #19

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

1. The Media have fallen in Love with Liz

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:10 PM

Oct 2019

She is a very likable and intelligent person , so I understand where they're coming from …. They have provided a huge boost to her campaign …..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

peggysue2

(10,836 posts)

2. Read that article yesterday

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:13 PM

Oct 2019

Think it's a pretty fair assessment of what we're seeing and fair discussion of the why.

Time will tell. It always does.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

UncleNoel

(864 posts)

20. I agree wholeheartedy with this part

Reply to peggysue2 (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 06:24 AM

Oct 2019

clare.malone: I mean, Biden’s team loves to talk about this: how their strategy is to give voice to the people not on Twitter — largely older voters, voters of color or voters without a college education.

natesilver: I think those critiques from Biden’s team are mostly valid. And you see it in the polling coverage. I’d argue that polls that show Warren tied or ahead of Biden generate tons of coverage. The ones that still show Biden ahead don’t.

clare.malone: I agree.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

DrFunkenstein

(8,745 posts)

3. Biden 41% and Warren 8% in May, Biden Drops 14% and Warren Gains 18%

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:14 PM

Oct 2019

But the problem is that journalists read too much Twitter?

That must be why the Biden campaign is investing in Super Tuesday states to brace for early defeats.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

4. Glad to see Silver speak to the media bias which favors Warren while underestimating Biden. I

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:19 PM

Oct 2019

view him as a pretty objective commentator.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

5. Nate loves the HarrisX poll that he rated C+

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:20 PM

Oct 2019

For some reason though, RCP POLLS does not use it in their tracker:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Also, for some reason, The Economist does not use the HarrisX oll in their tracker either:

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

Hmmm, I don't know what RCP POLLS reason not to use the HarrisX Poll is, but The Economist makes this statement of why they use the polls they do:

Methodology

We estimate support for each candidate using a statistical method called Bayesian dynamic Dirichlet regression. The model aggregates polls over the course of the campaign, putting more weight on polls conducted recently, less on those with small sample sizes and accounting for “house effects”—the tendency for some polling firms to over- or underestimate support for certain candidates. We exclude polling firms that do not use rigorous methods. In the past, surveys conducted over the phone with a live interviewer or with online survey-takers that use well-thought-out methodologies have been more reliable than other methods.

So, the statisticians at The Economist must feel that the HarrisX poll does not meet this criteria to their satisfaction.

Go figure.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,473 posts)

7. Harris is listed in the tracker.

Reply to bluewater (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:43 PM

Oct 2019

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

You just didn't look far enough down. The most recent one is 9/22-9/24, so it's not included in the 9/23-10/8 average.

The Economist doesn't include it because it's an online poll.

"We include only surveys from pollsters who conduct their interviews over the phone with a live interviewer"

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

10. The Hill / Harris is listed in the tracker, not the almost daily HarrisX polls.

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:05 PM

Oct 2019

The HarrisX Polls are released almost daily and none of those are included weekly in the RCP POLLS tracker, as are The Morning Consult and EconomistYouGov polls for example.

Look at all the HarrisX polls reported by 538 to see what I mean:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

I am not sure if there is any actual difference between "The Hill/HarrisX" (which seems to used by RCP every two weeks) and the "HarrisX" polls that are released almost daily (and are not included every week by RCP as the Morning Consult and Economist/YouGov weekly polls are).

For whatever reason, RCP does not incluse a HarrisX poll of any sort every week, even though plenty are available. Perhaps there is some fine distinction between The Hill/HarrisX poll they list and the other HarrisX polls that they don't use. I dunno.

In any case, Nate specifically referred to the HarrisX polls, and that is what I commented on.

Also, the Economist does use some online polls, they state that clearly:

We include only surveys from pollsters who conduct their interviews over the phone with a live interviewer—rather than with automated machine recording—or that use rigorous and well-documented online methods.

For example, The Economist uses the Economist/YouGov poll, not surprizingly lol, which itself is an online poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(25,473 posts)

11. Daily tracking polls aren't included in the RCP tracker.

Reply to bluewater (Reply #10)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:16 PM

Oct 2019

This really isn't as difficult as you seem to want to make it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

13. So, what is the distinction between The Hill/HarrisX and the daily HarrisX polls?

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #11)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:35 PM

Oct 2019

They are both online surveys of the same Harris Panel, aren't they?

Again, I am curious what distinction RCP is making when deciding which of the HarrisX polls they use.

Also, in 538's listing of polls, they never list a poll as "The Hill/HarrisX", all I see are "HarrisX" polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Scanning the 538 listing shows no "The Hill/HarrisX" poll for 9/20-9/21 that RCP lists, just a lot of HarrisX polls around that time frame.

Using the 538 search function for that list returns no results for "The Hill/HarrisX" or any permutations using the tag "hill".

So, again, what is the distinction, if there is one?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Voltaire2

(13,109 posts)

6. when all you've got is lemons...

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:38 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,022 posts)

8. Like Biden's 10-point lead over Warren in the latest Fox News poll?

Reply to Voltaire2 (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:47 PM

Oct 2019

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287305261

Btw, Fox News polling was discussed quite a bit on MSNBC last night. Lots of mentions of Fox finding 51% support Trump's impeachment and removal. Some mentions of Biden, Warren and Sanders all beating Trump by wide margins in the GE polling.

But I don't recall a single mention during MSNBC prime time of this new Fox poll showing Biden at 32% to Warren at 22%.

The bias is obvious.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

12. Doesn't Nate say you should look at an average of the polls?

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:19 PM

Oct 2019

Yeah, he does.

Another great poll average tracker is the one at The Economist. They seem to use a more sophisticated system than RCP does when constructing their chart, compared to the simple unweighted averaging method RCP employs.

I think it's definitely another great tool to use while following the primary races.

Besides, Biden never lost his lead in it, he's still up about 1%! So... it must be fairer, right? Joking.

https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,503 posts)

15. Actually there are "lemons" in the OP..

Reply to Voltaire2 (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:58 PM

Oct 2019

sorry you have some.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Hassin Bin Sober

(26,335 posts)

9. Media bashing!1! Conspiracy!W1

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 04:50 PM

Oct 2019

Nate is acting like trump with his media bashing!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

14. Nate is not doing so great as a pundit...

Reply to Hassin Bin Sober (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:41 PM

Oct 2019

I mean HE rated the HarrisX poll as a C+, maybe that's why people pay it less credence?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,503 posts)

16. No he isn't.

Reply to Hassin Bin Sober (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 05:58 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

PhoenixDem

(581 posts)

17. Very truthful discussion n/t

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Oct 11, 2019, 06:17 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueWI

(1,736 posts)

18. Meh.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 08:53 PM

Oct 2019

Warren's rise is impossible to ignore. It's a sustained trend and it hasn't stopped. If Warren wins the first two primaries, even SC will tighten up.

But polls are not votes. There's a campaign to win and a president to impeach.

All this hair splitting will be 100% irrelevant in 6 months.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BlueMTexpat

(15,370 posts)

19. Oh dear,

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Mon Oct 14, 2019, 06:10 AM

Oct 2019

because EW's getting good results, the pollsters must be biased in her favor?

It couldn't possibly be because her message is resonating.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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