Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Warren has taken the "lead" in The Economist's average of 2020 Democratic primary polls
Link to tweet
The Economist aggregate poll tracker has a more sophisticated presentation and offers a lot more information about the candidates with different demographic groups.
It takes into account each poll's margin of error, it's sampling size and how recent it was -- the chart display shows each candidates margin of error range along with their weighted average as it changes over time.
For example, Warren 25 (22-28) shows the average and the upper and lower margin of error confidence levels in the parentheses.
For example, Warren 25 (22-28) shows the average and the upper and lower margin of error confidence levels in the parentheses.
For a more detailed description of this great tool, see this article posted on DailyKos. it's from August, so it's talking about old polling results from back then, but it details many of the cool features available:
No, the latest poll is not blockbuster news. The Economist has the best aggregate.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/8/27/1881793/-No-the-latest-poll-is-not-blockbuster-news-The-Economist-has-the-best-aggregate-1-2-3-B-W-S
Check out The Economist's aggregate tracker for yourself at:
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
https://projects.economist.com/democratic-primaries-2020/
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
4 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
The amount of data presented on the state of the primaries is very impressive.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
First, lets give the Economist's data guy credit for putting "lead" in quotes. 
Here is how it works... if two candidates' weighted average is tied, they break that tie, for what's that worth, by looking at the UPPER BOUND of the margin of error for that candidate. In this case Warren 25 (22 28) means the 28 is the highest statistical result possible at the 95% confidence level margin of error. Biden is at 25 (23 27) with his upper bound being the 27% number.
Not that THAT means overly much, but it does highlight the fact that this tracker displays the margin of error ranges for the candidates' results, which is a nice extra plus.
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
If I were to vote in a presidentialprimary today, I would vote for: Undecided
