And her campaign is generating a lot of enthusiasm!

Expect them to be repeated over and over and over, in spite of any data that shows otherwise.

Expect that lead to grow even more emphatic.

https://www.politicususa.com/2019/10/11/impeachment-destroying-trump-biden-warren-double-digits.html

votes from California no matter which Democratic candidate is the nominee. We're not likely to lose the state. Polls have shown all our candidates beating Trump by very wide margins there.

I'd love to see this poll's exact breakdown by state.

We need to win the electoral college next year. We don't need another EC loss coupled with a popular vote victory thanks to running up votes in Democratic strongholds while losing swing states.

And yeah, I know it would be best to get rid of the electoral college.

That isn't going to happen in the foreseeable future, if ever. It especially isn't likely to happen while Republicans control so many states, and if it did happen while they have so much say, we probably wouldn't like the consequences of any amendments to the Constitution.

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Edting to add that California has 495 delegatss, according to Ballotpedia:

https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020


So Warren leading Biden in a large state that favors progressive candidates would probably account for most if not all of her lead in this poll.

And again, that sort of lead is absolutely useless in terms of the EC in the election next year.

The ability to flip a state like Texas, which some polls have suggested Biden could do, is much more important for an EC victory.

or the general election.

you have to consider the electoral college.

Can you explain why you think it does?

I mean, what are the realistic Democratic chances of taking SC, Tennessee and Alabama?



So what's the rationale against delegates from California, a state we will win?

Primaries are about winning as many delegates as you can. It doesn't matter whether they come from red states or blue states... all 50 states have delegates available. And which states you get more or fewer delegates from doesn't equate to your ability to win that state against Trump in the general. Apples and oranges.

She won OH and PA plus reliable blue states like CA and NY, Obama won big in red states in the South and West and we never heard the end of it. Of course, he ended up winning the GE by 10 million votes and 192 EV’s.

So, beats me too.

delegates that take it for her. Not all Sanders’ delegates, but enough.

This is just the beginning of the surge, Go Liz!

no matter which of our candidates gets the nomination?

Hasn't everyone been saying that Biden will get TONS of primary delegates in southern states, like SC, Tennesse and Alabama because of strong African American support?

Those states will be red in the General Election, so why complain about getting delegates from a state like California that we will win?

Delegates to the convention are delegates to the convention. They all count the same.

They were one of the few media outfits that was bearish on Dems chances of retaking the House in 2018. We ended up winning 40 seats. I don't think CBS Battleground is very accurate.

much faith in ANY projections at this stage, I am obviously delighted to see this one.

Thanks for posting.