Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(49,001 posts) Sun Oct 13, 2019, 01:58 PM Oct 2019

Does anyone have an exact delegate estimate BY STATE, including CA, of the Battleground poll?

The new poll shows Warren leading in their current delegate count, but the CBS story on the poll has the exact numbers for the top 3 candidates only for NH (Warren +2), IA (tie), and SC (Biden +24).

My guess is that most if not all of Warren's lead is from California, where in the general election we can rack up all the extra popular votes that we want, but it won't help a bit in the electoral college. I don't think we have to worry about possibly losing California with a liberal rather than a very liberal nominee.

I'm more concerned about flipping swing states.

So, if anyone has an exact state-by-state tally of how many delegates by state this poll allotted to each of the top candidates, that would be helpful.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

12 replies

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Does anyone have an exact delegate estimate BY STATE, including CA, of the Battleground poll? (Original Post) highplainsdem Oct 2019 OP

I'm very concerned "about flipping swing states"! Cha Oct 2019 #1

"I'm more concerned about flipping swing states" crazytown Oct 2019 #2

There have been some polls indicating we could flip Texas. In which case we'd have to be concerned highplainsdem Oct 2019 #5

This message was self-deleted by its author elocs Oct 2019 #12

I have it in a spreadsheet, forget were I got the list online. George II Oct 2019 #3

Would love to have a link, if you could find it again. I'm still searching for complete poll highplainsdem Oct 2019 #6

Here's a good resource: George II Oct 2019 #7

Thanks! But what I really want is the breakdown for CBS's estimate of delegates by state highplainsdem Oct 2019 #10

This is a good question. I think national polling % can distort the election picture. aikoaiko Oct 2019 #4

x1000! peggysue2 Oct 2019 #8

Why doesn't CBS/YouGov release all the individual polls? crazytown Oct 2019 #9

I agree. I'm hoping Jon Ralston can get more info, since he's suspicious of the NV results highplainsdem Oct 2019 #11

Cha

(297,297 posts)

1. I'm very concerned "about flipping swing states"!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:04 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

2. "I'm more concerned about flipping swing states"

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:29 PM

Oct 2019

FL,MI,OH,PA,WI - are not part of the CBS / YouGov poll.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

highplainsdem

(49,001 posts)

5. There have been some polls indicating we could flip Texas. In which case we'd have to be concerned

Reply to crazytown (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:35 PM

Oct 2019

about fewer of those states.

CBS has their polling data on how well the top candidates did in each of the states they polled. They should release it.

I've posted another OP about Nevada political journalist finding it suspicious that CBS left out even the state results for NV this time, after including them earlier.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Response to highplainsdem (Reply #5)

elocs This message was self-deleted by its author.

George II

(67,782 posts)

3. I have it in a spreadsheet, forget were I got the list online.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:33 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,001 posts)

6. Would love to have a link, if you could find it again. I'm still searching for complete poll

Reply to George II (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:08 PM

Oct 2019

results but can't find them.

And I'm getting more and more curious after seeing Jon Ralston's tweet pointing out CBS even left out the NV results, though they've reported them in the past.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

7. Here's a good resource:

Reply to highplainsdem (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:27 PM

Oct 2019

https://www.270towin.com/2020-democratic-nomination/

Click on each state for updated polling in each and the calculated number of delegates. Based on their data, here are the delegates for the top three candidates in the four early states:

Biden IA-18, NH-11, NV-13, SC-41 Total 83
Warren IA-23, NH-13, NV-13, SC-13 Total 62
Sanders IA-0, NH-0, NV-10, SC-0 Total 10

No other candidates will get delegates.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(49,001 posts)

10. Thanks! But what I really want is the breakdown for CBS's estimate of delegates by state

Reply to George II (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:34 PM

Oct 2019

in their new Battleground Tracker poll. I'm pretty sure it will confirm that Warren's lead in delegates is almost entirely from California.

I'm hoping Jon Ralston will be able to find out more details about the poll, since this month it left Nevada out of the detailed poll results after reporting on all four earliest states in earlier polls:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287307410

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

aikoaiko

(34,171 posts)

4. This is a good question. I think national polling % can distort the election picture.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:35 PM

Oct 2019

It doesn't matter if we win by 3 million votes or 30 millions votes if we don't win the electoral college votes.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

peggysue2

(10,831 posts)

8. x1000!

Reply to aikoaiko (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:29 PM

Oct 2019

Whether we like it or not, the real battle will waged on the electoral college field. That's where we'll live or die. That is the lesson from 2016. We ignore that reality at our own peril. Not to mention the country's.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden