Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(48,999 posts) Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:31 PM Oct 2019

Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston is suspicious of CBS not reporting NV results in new poll

CBS reported on the results from IA (tie), NH (Warren +2) and SC (Biden +24) in their delegate estimates, but left out all the estimates for all the other states where they polled. Including Nevada, the third of the first four states to vote in the primary race.

I've posted here asking about the California results, which I'm guessing provided most if not all of Warren's lead.

But Ralston's who's generally considered the most credible political journalist in Nevada, is wondering why his state wasn't included among the detailed estimates, when they were last time, with results showing Sanders with a narrow lead over Biden and a wider lead over Warren:

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-showing-vermont-senator-bernie-sanders-leading-former-vice-president-joe-biden-in/

Ralston's twitter thread starts here (full text below):

Link to tweet

It's even worse than I thought. CBS polled in 18 states, including Nevada, but decided to only extract the data for IA, NH and SC. Why skip the third state? So weird.

And also weird is that CBS included Nevada the last time out:

For those wondering if CBS simply had a bad or small sample in NV, that doesn't make sense. They polled 16K people across U.S. Also, even if that were true, should have been explained. Nevada is third. You need to explain why it was left out.
OK. I'm done. For today.
Maybe.

Ralston also had a couple of earlier tweets about the poll, in a thread starting here:

Link to tweet

Seriously, what kind of news organization does what it calls a “battleground tracker” and leaves out a state? Where was the meeting where decision-makers said, “Let’s do the first, second and fourth states but leave out the third?” Who does that? Need a calendar?
#WeMatter

Luckily, we have one of the best in the business, @MarkMellman, doing a Nevada poll later this month.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

12 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston is suspicious of CBS not reporting NV results in new poll (Original Post) highplainsdem Oct 2019 OP

Interesting story. Wellstone ruled Oct 2019 #1

Retweeted! It is "Weird"! Wtf! Cha Oct 2019 #2

I've come to distrust all yougov polls OKNancy Oct 2019 #3

So have I Green Line Oct 2019 #4

And HarrisX +20% for Biden crazytown Oct 2019 #6

What do you think of HarrisX crazytown Oct 2019 #5

CBS (which is supposed to be a reputable media network) is not promoting HarrisX. Irrelevant point. Skya Rhen Oct 2019 #7

"the polls are what the polls are" crazytown Oct 2019 #8

This same poll had a 50% chance of Repubs winning in 2018 Lexblues Oct 2019 #12

CBS may have not published NV result because they thought it was an outlier ritapria Oct 2019 #9

Outliers are published all the time, even by A-Rated pollsters. CBS is not being transparent. Skya Rhen Oct 2019 #10

The three states they gave details for were a Biden/Warren tie, Biden +24 and Warren +2 (delegates). highplainsdem Oct 2019 #11

Wellstone ruled

(34,661 posts)

1. Interesting story.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:40 PM

Oct 2019

We are one of the Usual Polled households when it comes to Nevada Democratic issues.

Most of our inquiries are for Warren,and some one by the name of Williamson.

Funny thing,the CBS local Affiliate News is number one here in the Valley.

Ralston is onto something.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(297,285 posts)

2. Retweeted! It is "Weird"! Wtf!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 02:44 PM

Oct 2019

Thanks for reporting this, highplains

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

OKNancy

(41,832 posts)

3. I've come to distrust all yougov polls

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:10 PM

Oct 2019

Even if my guy leads. As I understand it, most of them are commissioned polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Green Line

(1,123 posts)

4. So have I

Reply to OKNancy (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:13 PM

Oct 2019

This poll shows nothing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

6. And HarrisX +20% for Biden

Reply to Green Line (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:17 PM

Oct 2019

conducted by Scott Rasmussen, owned by Mark Penn? Isn't that something.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

5. What do you think of HarrisX

Reply to OKNancy (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:15 PM

Oct 2019

conducted by Scott Rasmussen, owned by Mark Penn?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

7. CBS (which is supposed to be a reputable media network) is not promoting HarrisX. Irrelevant point.

Reply to crazytown (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:24 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

8. "the polls are what the polls are"

Reply to Skya Rhen (Reply #7)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:25 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Lexblues

(180 posts)

12. This same poll had a 50% chance of Repubs winning in 2018

Reply to OKNancy (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 06:13 PM

Oct 2019

Which was higher than ANY other organization. Dems won 40 seats. I don't have much reliance in anything they say.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ritapria

(1,812 posts)

9. CBS may have not published NV result because they thought it was an outlier

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:39 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

10. Outliers are published all the time, even by A-Rated pollsters. CBS is not being transparent.

Reply to ritapria (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:42 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(48,999 posts)

11. The three states they gave details for were a Biden/Warren tie, Biden +24 and Warren +2 (delegates).

Reply to ritapria (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 13, 2019, 03:49 PM

Oct 2019

It would be hard to imagine NV looking like too much of an outlier given those varying results.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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