Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumAs Harris declines in the polls, her voters are shoring up Warren's position
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@gelliottmorris
Data journalist for @TheEconomist. I write mostly about polls, elections & political science. Past @pewmethods @UTAustin. Newsletter: http://thecrosstab.substack.com
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Last night they produced the following howler : Warren 36% Biden 24 % Bernie 17% ...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)HarrisX - conducted by Scott Rasmussen, owned by Mark Penn, posted here by Biden supporters with a straight face.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Can you point to the methodology problem with the poll....or just attack it by association? Scott Rasmussen has historically done pretty well. Rasmussen didnt become a laughing stock until he left it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
crazytown
(7,277 posts)Scott Rasmussen sold his reports in 2013. It was 2012 that made them a laughing stock. If the principals are untrustworthy political players ...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
I didn't make any claims about YouGov. Try again.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Celerity
(43,408 posts)of the compensated) polled day after day for months, and has a too high mod/con sample size. It is a low rated poll (C+ on 538) that fits some people agenda so it is defended and trumpeted far more than it should be.
Plus, the fact that RWer Scott Rasmussen runs it, and it is owned by the DINO/RW apologist Mark Penn's Stagwell Group certainly doesn't lend much in terms of mitigation of bias. HarrisX also, a few days back showed Rump at 49% approval rating, lolol, only 2 points off his all-time high.
Rasmussen Reports was shit when Scott R. was still there, he has been a RW hack for decades.
If you think Biden has a TWENTY point lead on the field, then, as I have said before, I have a bridge for sale. He is still the overall forerunner, but is nowhere near that sort of lead. There is literally a 33 point difference between HarrisX and another, more reputable poll released that same day. Biden supporters want to claim EVERY SINGLE point of that 33 point spread in their favour.
HarrisX Partners with Veteran Pollster Scott Rasmussen on New Daily Poll Tracking American Political Sentiment
https://blog.harrisx.com/blog/2018/08/harrisx-partners-with-veteran-pollster-scott-rasmussen-on-new-daily-poll-tracking-american-political-sentiment
https://scottrasmussen.com/
Harvard-Harris Poll
https://theharrispoll.com/our-firm/#leadership-sec
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/HHP_September2019_Topline_RegisteredVoters.pdf
HarrisX : Trump approval climbs to highest level of 2019 amid impeachment inquiry
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/464072-trumps-approval-ticks-to-up-to-highest-level-since-december
President Trumps approval ticked up to 49 percent its highest mark this year, according to a new Hill-HarrisX survey released on Wednesday.
The figure marks a 2-point increase from a Sept. 11-12 poll, but a 2-point decrease from its previous peak of 51 percent in August 2018.
Trump's disapproval rating, meanwhile, dropped to 51 percent, which marks his lowest level so far this year.
snip
https://scottrasmussen.com/methodology/
The respondents opt in to take our surveys and some of them are rewarded for their participation.
The pretty RW Hill, (where the scum John Solomon worked at and pushed the Biden Ukraine bullshit for months) partners with HarrisX
Scott Rasmussen is a RWer (he founded and then sold off the odious RW Rasmussen Reports poll years ago, it is the Trump and Rethug favourite, as it oversamples RWer far too much)
Mark Penn is a DINO turned RWer and runs the separate (from HarrisX) Harvard-Harris poll
Penn's umbrella firm Stagwell Group owns both HarrisX and Harvard-Harris, 2 separate polls (Penn himself runs Harvard-Harris)
and The Hill is also basically RW, with some balancing articles that are sometimes legit
it's a RW clusterfuck
The Hill (HarrisX partner) just so happens to sponsor the most dodgy of all the major polls`(run by a decades long RW pollster) in terms of overrating Biden AND YET ALSO just so happens to have been the biggest source pushing the Biden Burisma Ukraine scandal RW conspiracy theory.
Coincidence?
Not in my book. It is classic non-linear warfare/reflexive control tactics.
Create a fog of war, destroy valid measurements and norms, zig when all else in a normal predictive system says you will ZAG.
Non-Linear Warfare and Reflexive Control - NATO Defense College
http://www.ndc.nato.int/download/downloads.php?icode=467
What is Hybrid Warfare?
https://globalsecurityreview.com/hybrid-and-non-linear-warfare-systematically-erases-the-divide-between-war-peace/
Redefining Hybrid Warfare: Russias Nonlinear War against the West
http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1538&context=jss
Putins Way of War
The War in Russias Hybrid Warfare
http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/parameters/issues/Winter_2015-16/9_Monaghan.pdf
The Hidden Author of Putinism
How Vladislav Surkov invented the new Russia
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/
I am the author, or one of the authors, of the new Russian system, Vladislav Surkov told us by way of introduction. On this spring day in 2013, he was wearing a white shirt and a leather jacket that was part Joy Division and part 1930s commissar. My portfolio at the Kremlin and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ...here he pauses and smilesmodern art. He offers to not make a speech, instead welcoming the Ph.D. students, professors, journalists, and politicians gathered in an auditorium at the London School of Economics to pose questions and have an open discussion. After the first question, he talks for almost 45 minutes, leaving hardly any time for questions after all. Its his political system in miniature: democratic rhetoric and undemocratic intent.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
That's called a panel, and they arent the only poll to use it. Regardless of the sample having a lean to a candidate or not, they should show movement.
Again, most of your argument here is based on attacking the pollsters and not the results. Its the same as attacking a whistleblower and not refuting the claim.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HarrisX is a dirt cheap poll from dodgy pollsters with a track record of cooking the books.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
crazytown
(7,277 posts)I look forward to reading up on Hybrid Warfare
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Celerity
(43,408 posts)modern geo-politics and media. At least it is for me.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Takket
(21,577 posts)been thinking for several weeks as the cream rises to the top that people are consolidating around warren/sanders/biden and thinking about joining the warren camp. will give harris a few more weeks to see if she can get any momentum going but i think as more people decide the window is closing.
so save a seat for me on the warren train
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)If you do hop on, be assured that you will be most welcome!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden