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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

bluewater

(5,376 posts)
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 06:31 PM Oct 2019

As Harris declines in the polls, her voters are shoring up Warren's position







G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Data journalist for @TheEconomist. I write mostly about polls, elections & political science. Past @pewmethods @UTAustin. Newsletter: http://thecrosstab.substack.com
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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As Harris declines in the polls, her voters are shoring up Warren's position (Original Post) bluewater Oct 2019 OP
YouGuv are producing Pro Warren Outliers ritapria Oct 2019 #1
Outlier? Biden 36% Warren 16% Sanders 14% crazytown Oct 2019 #2
Ok boomer_wv Oct 2019 #3
Can you point to the methodology problem with YouGov? crazytown Oct 2019 #4
? boomer_wv Oct 2019 #5
yes, big methodological problem with HarrisX, it is the same group of 1000 people (many Celerity Oct 2019 #8
No. boomer_wv Oct 2019 #9
no Celerity Oct 2019 #10
No. crazytown Oct 2019 #11
Thank you for your hard work Celerity. crazytown Oct 2019 #12
The whole concept of nonlinear warfare and also reflexive control is so vital to understanding Celerity Oct 2019 #13
harris/warren have been my top 2 choices since the begining....... Takket Oct 2019 #6
They were mine too. BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #7
 

ritapria

(1,812 posts)
1. YouGuv are producing Pro Warren Outliers
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 08:44 PM
Oct 2019

Last night they produced the following howler : Warren 36% Biden 24 % Bernie 17% …...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
2. Outlier? Biden 36% Warren 16% Sanders 14%
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 08:54 PM
Oct 2019

HarrisX - conducted by Scott Rasmussen, owned by Mark Penn, posted here by Biden supporters with a straight face.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
3. Ok
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 09:03 PM
Oct 2019

Can you point to the methodology problem with the poll....or just attack it by association? Scott Rasmussen has historically done pretty well. Rasmussen didnt become a laughing stock until he left it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
4. Can you point to the methodology problem with YouGov?
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 09:15 PM
Oct 2019

Scott Rasmussen sold his reports in 2013. It was 2012 that made them a laughing stock. If the principals are untrustworthy political players ...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
5. ?
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 10:44 PM
Oct 2019

I didn't make any claims about YouGov. Try again.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Celerity

(43,408 posts)
8. yes, big methodological problem with HarrisX, it is the same group of 1000 people (many
Mon Oct 14, 2019, 07:35 AM
Oct 2019

of the compensated) polled day after day for months, and has a too high mod/con sample size. It is a low rated poll (C+ on 538) that fits some people agenda so it is defended and trumpeted far more than it should be.

Plus, the fact that RWer Scott Rasmussen runs it, and it is owned by the DINO/RW apologist Mark Penn's Stagwell Group certainly doesn't lend much in terms of mitigation of bias. HarrisX also, a few days back showed Rump at 49% approval rating, lolol, only 2 points off his all-time high.

Rasmussen Reports was shit when Scott R. was still there, he has been a RW hack for decades.

If you think Biden has a TWENTY point lead on the field, then, as I have said before, I have a bridge for sale. He is still the overall forerunner, but is nowhere near that sort of lead. There is literally a 33 point difference between HarrisX and another, more reputable poll released that same day. Biden supporters want to claim EVERY SINGLE point of that 33 point spread in their favour.




HarrisX Partners with Veteran Pollster Scott Rasmussen on New Daily Poll Tracking American Political Sentiment

https://blog.harrisx.com/blog/2018/08/harrisx-partners-with-veteran-pollster-scott-rasmussen-on-new-daily-poll-tracking-american-political-sentiment


https://scottrasmussen.com/







Harvard-Harris Poll

https://theharrispoll.com/our-firm/#leadership-sec




https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/HHP_September2019_Topline_RegisteredVoters.pdf







HarrisX : Trump approval climbs to highest level of 2019 amid impeachment inquiry

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/464072-trumps-approval-ticks-to-up-to-highest-level-since-december

President Trump’s approval ticked up to 49 percent — its highest mark this year, according to a new Hill-HarrisX survey released on Wednesday.

The figure marks a 2-point increase from a Sept. 11-12 poll, but a 2-point decrease from its previous peak of 51 percent in August 2018.

Trump's disapproval rating, meanwhile, dropped to 51 percent, which marks his lowest level so far this year.

snip


https://scottrasmussen.com/methodology/

The field work for ScottRasmussen.com surveys is provided by HarrisX, a leading research company specializing in online surveys. The survey is conducted online within the United States on a daily basis among approximately 1,000 Registered Voters. The results reflect a nationally representative sample of Americans. Results are weighted for age within gender, region, race/ethnicity, income, political party, and education where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population, in accordance with the demographic results of the U.S. Census Current Population Survey. These weighting categories were defined by Scott Rasmussen. Not all HarrisX surveys include all of the parameters included in ScottRasmussen.com surveys.

The respondents opt in to take our surveys and some of them are rewarded for their participation.






The pretty RW Hill, (where the scum John Solomon worked at and pushed the Biden Ukraine bullshit for months) partners with HarrisX

Scott Rasmussen is a RWer (he founded and then sold off the odious RW Rasmussen Reports poll years ago, it is the Trump and Rethug favourite, as it oversamples RWer far too much)

Mark Penn is a DINO turned RWer and runs the separate (from HarrisX) Harvard-Harris poll

Penn's umbrella firm Stagwell Group owns both HarrisX and Harvard-Harris, 2 separate polls (Penn himself runs Harvard-Harris)

and The Hill is also basically RW, with some balancing articles that are sometimes legit

it's a RW clusterfuck


















Rasmussen and Penn are RW foxes in the hen house, designed to cause conflict and steer opinion for max chaos.

The Hill (HarrisX partner) just so happens to sponsor the most dodgy of all the major polls`(run by a decades long RW pollster) in terms of overrating Biden AND YET ALSO just so happens to have been the biggest source pushing the Biden Burisma Ukraine scandal RW conspiracy theory.

Coincidence?

Not in my book. It is classic non-linear warfare/reflexive control tactics.

Create a fog of war, destroy valid measurements and norms, zig when all else in a normal predictive system says you will ZAG.







Non-Linear Warfare and Reflexive Control - NATO Defense College

http://www.ndc.nato.int/download/downloads.php?icode=467


What is Hybrid Warfare?

https://globalsecurityreview.com/hybrid-and-non-linear-warfare-systematically-erases-the-divide-between-war-peace/


Redefining Hybrid Warfare: Russia’s Nonlinear War against the West

http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1538&context=jss


Putin’s Way of War
The ‘War’ in Russia’s ‘Hybrid Warfare’

http://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pubs/parameters/issues/Winter_2015-16/9_Monaghan.pdf


The Hidden Author of Putinism
How Vladislav Surkov invented the new Russia

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/hidden-author-putinism-russia-vladislav-surkov/382489/

“I am the author, or one of the authors, of the new Russian system,” Vladislav Surkov told us by way of introduction. On this spring day in 2013, he was wearing a white shirt and a leather jacket that was part Joy Division and part 1930s commissar. “My portfolio at the Kremlin and in government has included ideology, media, political parties, religion, modernization, innovation, foreign relations, and ...”—here he pauses and smiles—“modern art.” He offers to not make a speech, instead welcoming the Ph.D. students, professors, journalists, and politicians gathered in an auditorium at the London School of Economics to pose questions and have an open discussion. After the first question, he talks for almost 45 minutes, leaving hardly any time for questions after all. It’s his political system in miniature: democratic rhetoric and undemocratic intent.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
9. No.
Mon Oct 14, 2019, 07:57 AM
Oct 2019

That's called a panel, and they arent the only poll to use it. Regardless of the sample having a lean to a candidate or not, they should show movement.

Again, most of your argument here is based on attacking the pollsters and not the results. Its the same as attacking a whistleblower and not refuting the claim.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
11. No.
Mon Oct 14, 2019, 08:07 AM
Oct 2019

HarrisX is a dirt cheap poll from dodgy pollsters with a track record of cooking the books.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
12. Thank you for your hard work Celerity.
Mon Oct 14, 2019, 08:11 AM
Oct 2019

I look forward to reading up on Hybrid Warfare

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Celerity

(43,408 posts)
13. The whole concept of nonlinear warfare and also reflexive control is so vital to understanding
Mon Oct 14, 2019, 08:14 AM
Oct 2019

modern geo-politics and media. At least it is for me.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Takket

(21,577 posts)
6. harris/warren have been my top 2 choices since the begining.......
Sun Oct 13, 2019, 11:27 PM
Oct 2019

been thinking for several weeks as the cream rises to the top that people are consolidating around warren/sanders/biden and thinking about joining the warren camp. will give harris a few more weeks to see if she can get any momentum going but i think as more people decide the window is closing.

so save a seat for me on the warren train

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)
7. They were mine too.
Mon Oct 14, 2019, 05:37 AM
Oct 2019

If you do hop on, be assured that you will be most welcome!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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