isn't going to win it for anybody. We might finish the night with 3 candidates sitting all pretty close in the final vote and basically splitting the delegates. However, it could lose it for somebody. How different does it get spun if we finish....

Warren: 26
Biden 25
Sanders 20
Buttigieg 14

Vs.

Biden 26
Sanders 24
Warren 20
Buttigieg 11

Statistically, both of those results could happen with this poll and it wouldn't be any kind of shock.

If Warren were to finish behind Sanders, for instance, that would be really bad for her. It's probably also bad for Sanders if Biden and Warren were to be groups at the top and he trailing in 3rd by several points. Biden seems to have a backstop in SC and just needs to keep himself respectable in IA and NH so that he can score a big win in SC and start that southern run.

If Warren wants to win I think that she has to make some play into those states, and if she has any showing in IA or NH that misses expectations it could cause her problems.

more per this OP is that 43% of voters included among the top three candidates do not list Biden as their first preference.

If one includes the top four, that percentage mounts to 57% who list others as their first preference.

Several pollsters have stated that EW is most often stated as the second choice among Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg voters. See, e.g., https://theweek.com/articles/869637/how-elizabeth-warren-could-sweep-2020-primaries

I am glad to see Pete doing pretty good as well

If Bernie looks weak at this debate coming up, his support is going to impacted as well. He has more riding on it it than other other candidate IMHO. If he does after Warren and is slammed back, he is done. The 4 'attacker' wild cards will be Gabbard, Steyer, Beto, and Castro.

and is an attractive candidate.

You do realize that the exact same numbers do not list Warren as their first choice either?

Thanks for pointing that out.

But I am not the one hyping Biden's electability.

The fact that most of those who support Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg as their first choice currently indicate EW as their second choice does not bode well for Biden.

Nor does the statement in my excerpt that Biden has the highest unfavorables, at 22%.

is his strength as a candidate in a general election. That's a much different electorate than the democratic primary.

Biden has the ability to pull in more moderate independents and republicans. Plenty of these traditional republican voters would vote for Biden because they are fatigued with Trump. They won't however, vote for Warren because she scares them.

Warren could beat Trump. I think Biden has a much more clear path do doing so.

your candidate or you wouldn't have chosen to support him.

I do believe that Elizabeth is much the better candidate - including for the general election - and more people seem to be coming around to that idea. Slowly but steadily.

We'll see what happens. But I do believe that we both are committed to seeing a Democrat win the WH in 2020.

If it's Liz I'll run through a wall for her.

Pretty good looking poll for him.

They are going to have to get Biden down under ten or fifteen, IMO. He is going to do very well if he comes out of the first states in second or a close third.