Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538: Which candidates performed the best? (spoiler: Warren)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-october-democratic-debate-in-6-charts/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
HeartlandProgressive
(294 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Biden was, well, Biden, and the rest were trying to take the others (i.e. Warren) down. Don't know if this debate changes polling numbers, but it shows that candidates are becoming more desperate to get attention.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
boomer_wv
(673 posts)The trendline is the expected performance rating based on pre debate favor ability. The best debate performances are the ones that most outperformed their expected potions.That would be Pete and Amy.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)You are misinterpreting the chart.
Warren had the best debate performance. She is highest on the Debate Performance axis which measured "how well respondents who watched the debate thought each candidate did"
But, 538 does say that Klobuchar and Buttigieg did exceed expectations the most based on their favorability coming in. THAT is where the distance from the trendline is relevant, only in exceeding expectations. Hence 538's heading asking "which candidate made an outsized impression" i.e. who did better than expected based on their favorability entering the debate.
But, in absolute terms, according to 538's post debate polling, Warren had the best performance.
And she also happened to be above the "expectations" trend line too.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
But that's the whole point of the trendline. Her high pre-debate popularity explains a lot of her debate evaluations. People who like her gave her higher ratings, whether she really did better or not. We can see how well this tracks, there is undeniable correlation between those two things on the chart.
This is also a poll of debate watchers, which skew to a demographic that she does well with. In a day or two we will start seeing polls that tell more of a story, if voters were impacted.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)"favorabilty" is a vaguely defined characteristic. Voters might just be "favoring" the more competent, smarter candidates who also happen to be experienced debaters, hence the correlation.
In any case, the one indisputable fact, according to the 538 post debate poll Warren had the best performance of the night.
Thanks for the discussion.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
cwydro
(51,308 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden