Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts) Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:02 PM Oct 2019

Who is fading?

Lots of comments about Biden's campaign plummeting recently, but the RCP numbers belie that.

Here are the averages since September 1 (sorry for the format):

Date 1-Sep 15-Sep 1-Oct 17-Oct
Biden 30.5 26.4 27.2 29.4
Warren 17.0 16.6 23.0 23.4
Sanders 16.3 17.0 17.8 15.4

Over the last 47 days Biden has "plummeted" 0.9%, Warren has increased 6.4%, BS has dropped 1.6%

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

18 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Who is fading? (Original Post) George II Oct 2019 OP

I'd be ok with no more Tulsi Gabbard. Baltimike Oct 2019 #1

you and me both. MBS Oct 2019 #10

Plummet, fading, disqualified all terms I've heard lately LakeArenal Oct 2019 #2

... Scurrilous Oct 2019 #13

Plummeted .9?? LOL onetexan Oct 2019 #3

Fading? According to you... Biden and Sanders bluewater Oct 2019 #4

I could have included October 8 (halfway between Oct. 1 and Oct. 17): George II Oct 2019 #5

Cherry picking days on a noisy tracking plot would prove what though? bluewater Oct 2019 #9

Looks like somebody Bazinga'd themselves again melman Oct 2019 #11

lol Yes, definitely bluewater Oct 2019 #12

Except when you say "it's too early for polls to mean anything" LanternWaste Oct 2019 #6

lol It's the MIDDLE of October now... bluewater Oct 2019 #8

This message was self-deleted by its author bluewater Oct 2019 #7

1% isn't fading. TwilightZone Oct 2019 #16

Thanks George for some reality! Cha Oct 2019 #14

So the top 4 is still the top 4. JustABozoOnThisBus Oct 2019 #15

I wouldn't miss about a dozen of our candidates. George II Oct 2019 #17

This message was self-deleted by its author elocs Oct 2019 #18

Baltimike

(4,148 posts)

1. I'd be ok with no more Tulsi Gabbard.

Reply to George II (Original post)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:06 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

MBS

(9,688 posts)

10. you and me both.

Reply to Baltimike (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:37 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LakeArenal

(28,847 posts)

2. Plummet, fading, disqualified all terms I've heard lately

Reply to George II (Original post)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:10 PM

Oct 2019

When these words are never heard
Constantly leading, holding his own,
Any Changes within the margins of error.
Most qualified. Most experienced. Internationally more qualified than anyone running.

Semantics and perception to smear Joe.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Scurrilous

(38,687 posts)

13. ...

Reply to LakeArenal (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 03:30 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

onetexan

(13,063 posts)

3. Plummeted .9?? LOL

Reply to George II (Original post)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:13 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

4. Fading? According to you... Biden and Sanders

Reply to George II (Original post)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:14 PM

Oct 2019

You asked in the title of the OP: "Who is fading?"

Let's see.

So, according to your own numbers, over the last 47 days:

Biden has gone down ~1% (0.9%)

Sanders has gone down 1.6%

Warren has gone up 6.4%

Thanks for pointing out that Biden has been, in your own words, "fading", and Warren has gained considerably in the last month and a half.

As I always say, the polls are what the polls are.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

5. I could have included October 8 (halfway between Oct. 1 and Oct. 17):

Reply to bluewater (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:26 PM

Oct 2019

Biden 26.4, now UP 3.0 from Oct. 9
Warren 26.6, now DOWN 3.2 from Oct. 9
Sanders 14.6, now up 0.6 from Oct. 9

The point is that Biden hasn't plummeted whatsoever.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

9. Cherry picking days on a noisy tracking plot would prove what though?

Reply to George II (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:33 PM

Oct 2019

The trend is, as you pointed out, Joe has been "fading" ~1% and Warren has gained considerably with 6.4%.

Thanks for pointing this out.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

melman

(7,681 posts)

11. Looks like somebody Bazinga'd themselves again

Reply to bluewater (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:44 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

12. lol Yes, definitely

Reply to melman (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:48 PM

Oct 2019

Just remember, you can't tell the players without a score card.

Wink Wink.

Nudge nudge.

Say no more.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LanternWaste

(37,748 posts)

6. Except when you say "it's too early for polls to mean anything"

Reply to bluewater (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:30 PM

Oct 2019

As I always say, the polls are what the polls are."

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

8. lol It's the MIDDLE of October now...

Reply to LanternWaste (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 17, 2019, 02:32 PM

Oct 2019

I think it's not quite so early anymore as back in June, or even August.

Months have past and time has marched on.

Besides, I didn't post this polling data showing Biden, in the words of the OP, "fading" 1% and Warren gaining 6.4% over the last month or so. The author of the OP did.