Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThe French Economist Who Helped Invent Elizabeth Warren's Wealth Tax
No, this is NOT Thomas Piketty. But it IS one of his students.
ETA the link: sorry! https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-french-economist-who-helped-invent-elizabeth-warrens-wealth-tax
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Gabriel Zucman and his colleagues are advocating a progressive wealth tax as a solution to global inequality, one that rethinks both evasion and the goals of taxation.
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To trace the progress of the wealth tax from a fringe academic idea to the center of the Democratic Presidential primary, it is helpful to begin a bit off-center. On September 15, 2008, the day that Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, a twenty-one-year-old student of Thomas Piketty, Gabriel Zucman, started work as a trainee economic analyst in the offices of a Paris brokerage house called Exane.
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For the next several years, Zucman followed two tracks. The first led deeper into the mists of offshore banking systems. In obscure monthly reports of the Swiss central bank he discovered that foreigners held $2.5 trillion in wealth there (Zucman would eventually calculate that $7.6 trillion, or eight per cent of global household wealth, was held in tax havens, three-quarters of it undeclared) and that these immense sums were mostly being diverted to mutual funds incorporated in Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, and Ireland. The second trackthe work he did first with Piketty and then with the Piketty collaborator and Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saezmapped the acceleration of inequality around the world and in the United States. The American story was of a snowball effect, as Zucman described it, in which the very high top incomes of the nineteen-eighties and nineties were saved and invested, and that creates a spiral which is potentially very powerful and leads to very, very high rates of wealth inequality. The two stories were in fact one. The concentration of wealth in secretive tax havens was an expression of the broader wealth imbalancethe laissez-faire spirit of the Reagan era working its way through the country and then the world. One thing that became clear in my mind when I did the study of the U.S. wealth inequality is how hard it is to stop the rise of wealth inequality if you dont have progressive taxation and, in particular, progressive wealth taxation, Zucman told me. Without it, the snowball just keeps growing.
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Saez and Zucman have written a book, published this month, called The Triumph of Injustice, which assembles their research into a policy plan. (Its subtitle is the instruction-manual-like How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay.) One way to understand the book is as marking a new phase in the project that Piketty, Saez, and Zucman share. Having done more than just about any other economists to describe the powerful effect that accumulated wealth has on global inequality, they are now advocating for a solution: a highly progressive annual tax on wealth, an idea that has been adopted by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Zucman is the junior partner in the enterprise, but he has also been its chief propagandist, duelling on Twitter with economists who raise objections or philosophical gripes, and so the wealth-tax cause has come to reflect some of his own attributes: his tremendous explanatory power, his comfort with being an outsider to the establishment, and his great optimism in what government can know and do about the concentration of wealth.
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At the end of last year, Saez got an e-mail from Bharat Ramamurti, a longtime economic policy adviser of Elizabeth Warrens, who said that Warren was interested in proposing a tax on wealth in some form. Zucman and Saez created a spreadsheet, using their own estimates of wealth, that allowed the Warren campaign to play around with different thresholds and rates for the tax. At first, Ramamurti sketched out a plan that taxed fortunes of twenty million dollars or more at one per cent. But in Saez and Zucman's analysison the spreadsheetwealth was so concentrated at the highest end that a more radically progressive tax, one which targeted a relatively small number households, could still generate trillions in revenue. Eventually, the Warren campaign settled on a plan that would tax fortunes over fifty million dollars at two per cent annually, and those over one billion at three per cent, which Saez and Zucman estimated would raise the astonishing sum of $2.75 trillion over the course of ten years. (The entire revenue of the federal government, in the current budget year, is $3.4 trillion.) To Zucman, the choice had the added effect of averting a political problem that had bedevilled European wealth taxes, which tended to start with much smaller fortunes. Above fifty million, you cant really argue that these people cant afford to pay, Zucman told me.
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Much, much more at the link. This is an excellent article.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)pay for healthcare, childcare, climate change, bolstering Social Security, college debt, free college, jobs, infrastructure, etc.
Its a start and helps, but doesnt come close to paying for everything Warren is promising.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Add another consideration Federal tax increases negatively impact local tax levies for local services.
Before long, shes going to have to lay out all the taxes shell be levying to pay for her promises. It wont fall on just the wealthy and high income folks like she pretends.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)The numbers on public college, student debt and child care are straightforward. So to support your default setting on Warren, you immediately pivot to health care, where no one can agree on the numbers and which is not part of the wealth tax discussion. Typical.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Thekaspervote
(32,773 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,773 posts)Its no wonder she isnt talking about it.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BeyondGeography
(39,374 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Fiendish Thingy
(15,622 posts)Which, IIRC, is about 36 trillion. You Biden folks always seem to leave that part out.
If healthcare for everyone is just "too expensive", then why won't Biden tell the truth about who gets left out?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)to increase? Senator Warren response Look, we wont pay anymore in total despite fact we will be insuring 40 million more people, there will be no co-insurance or deductibles, we will pick up dental care, etc.
All that is great, and needed, but tell folks how much their taxes will increase by family size, income, etc.
Are younger people going to have to subsidize older people, how much will that dental care cost, oh you left out inflation over 10 years, are providers going to accept Medicare rates minus whatever it takes to meet budgetary constraints, and more? And be sure to include other promises requiring tax increases childcare, college debt, bolstering Social Security, infrastructure, climate change, deficit and debt reduction, etc.
Just answer the question and quit ducking. She might fool folks in primaries, but she wont get away with it in General Election.
BTW Ill definitely support Warren in General, but I think shell lose, putting us farther away from significant healthcare reform.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
rpannier
(24,329 posts)from Wapo
Heres one way to think about it. Employers and households currently foot the bill for just under half of all national health-care spending about $3.5 trillion in 2017. The government pays the rest, through programs such as Medicare and Medicaid. But under Medicare-for-all, the government would take on most of that spending.
Shifting such a large amount of expenditures from private to public sources would significantly increase government spending and require substantial additional government resources, the CBO wrote.
But the agency also acknowledged that total national health spending wouldnt necessarily increase under Medicare-for-all in fact, there's a possibility it might decrease depending on the services covered, provider payment rates and patient cost-sharing requirements (I discussed this question in this Health 202). It would almost certainly cost less to administer; the CBO noted that administrative costs average 6 percent of Medicare spending but 12 percent of private insurers spending.
3.5 x 10 = 35. Which is greater than 32
the Hill
Experts from Congresss nonpartisan budget office testified Wednesday that a single-payer health care system would result in many more people with health insurance but would also be potentially disruptive and increase government control.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) experts made the remarks at the second hearing on a single-payer, Medicare for All system that House Democrats have held this year, this time at the House Budget Committee.
Many more people would probably have health insurance as a result but the government would take much more control over the health care system, said CBO deputy director Mark Hadley.
He noted that because health care represents around one-sixth of the economy, those changes could significantly affect the overall U.S. economy and be potentially disruptive.
If you want to read the full report from May 2019
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-05/55150-singlepayer.pdf
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cicada
(4,533 posts)They say the most important benefit is to prevent wealth accumulation so great that a small number can buy and control government
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)Do agree that is a worthy goal, just dont think wealth tax will do much in that respect.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
PETRUS
(3,678 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
peggysue2
(10,830 posts)Tried elsewhere and in the majority of European countries abandoned due to high implementation, administrative and enforcement costs while bringing in a fraction of anticipated revenues. Yang mentioned that unfortunate news but so have many others. People need only to do the research and reading.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)It talks about one reason why that didn't work.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LAS14
(13,783 posts)... I should would appreciate a "why it will work for us when it failed in Europe" summary for dummies. I did sit up when someone mentioned that (I assume) fact in the debates and have been waiting to hear more. Note that I'm a Warren supporter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)was that the threshold for the wealth tax was set too low and did not put the burden where it truly belonged.
But that is the short answer. There is a lot more to it.
I reside in one of the three countries in Europe where a wealth tax has been part of the system for a long time. It's been working here just fine, but is also applied at a much lower threshold than what Elizabeth Warren is proposing.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sherman A1
(38,958 posts)and what the candidate stated in his debate response.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)Zucman, who actually knows what he is talking about.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)Has anyone shown how these plans are going to work better than the plans implemented by Sweden or France or any of the other countries that have ditched it?
Seems to me that Zucman and Saez are vastly underestimating how easy it will be for wealth to be moved around to escape this tax.
It just makes no sense to propose a whole new tax system that 1-hasn't been shown to work where it's been tried, 2-most likely will not get through congress, and 3-will be challenged in court and almost certainly be declared unconstitutional.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Act was passed during the Obama administration, with changes in international laws and computerization of the information age, that international cooperation developed surprisingly fast to track down and control hidden wealth.
Conservative-dominated governments as well as liberal have always had strong interests in collecting the taxes they impose, but it turns out that's a lot more possible now, not less. And now, in an age when planetary wealth has more than quadrupled in just a couple generations, every free nations are realizing that they must get control of wealth accumulation antithetical to democracy itself before it destroys them. Both create real impetus for action.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)spreading the wealth around family members is one very simple way. Or as happened with Sweden and France - just relocating.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)governments so controlling that there were not "myriad ways" to avoid, including the favorite, passionate "right" of many to share untaxed wealth with family, especially their children. Get too controlling with that one and society will rebel.
Free societies require some looseness. Successful laws regulating people's money achieve their goals without being felt as unacceptably oppressive. In this case we just need to strongly limit successful tax evasion to the point that will achieve needed ends, making it unreasonably difficult and legally risky for most to bother.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)that they understand why it has failed elsewhere, and how they plan to counter it.
Please note I didn't even get into the nuts and bolts of it, as I'm no economist. Yang has a degree in economics and I expect he may start getting a little more wonky in future debates.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)40 years ago weren't enough for me try to second-guess well-regarded economists even back then. And there're always a bunch of valid approaches to almost any, always incredibly complex problem, all with their own sets of costs and benefits, and unknowns. Far too much for me.
Anyway, of course any president we elect would have to convince congressional Democrats, where experts, including high-level staffers hired for economic expertise, will have been considering various liberalism-aligned solutions to problems for years, in conjunction with widely respected economists. Often the legislators do most of the convincing, with the president approving and getting his or her name on the final law. A check on any potential problems riding in on "and I will" campaign promises.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DrToast
(6,414 posts)We just need proper income and capital gains tax rates. There is no need to have a wealth tax.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
TexasBushwhacker
(20,196 posts)Since about 80% of the stocks are owned by the top 10%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)Fix capital gains tax, enact a financial transaction tax, and close estate tax loopholes.
I know Yang is for the capital gains and financial transaction tax, don't see that he's mentioned estate tax loopholes though.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasBushwhacker
(20,196 posts)We shouldn't be in the business of supporting dynasties. That's one of the things the pilgrims left behind in England.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
nbsmom
(591 posts)Or better still, read the book.
Or read Democracy in Chains by Nancy MacLean.
Or just look at the oligarchic excesses in Russia (and China) right now.
You either understand that we didnt get here overnight... that getting anywhere else is going to involve big, structural change... that democracy is NOT a spectator sport... or you dont.
The people who want Dems to stick with safe and cautious and moderate are the ones who are taking 💰💰💰 from corporations (oil and gas, big health and big pharmaceutical). Or theyre defending Tulsi Gabbards right to be a Russian asset. Or both.
We definitely need to keep this discussion going. But we also need to secure our right everyones right to vote. We need to support the people who are on the front lines of this fight.
Stepping off my soapbox now...
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasBushwhacker
(20,196 posts)I don't do Amazon.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)that has already been shown not to be effective.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)Thanks for your post!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)wealth accumulation antithetical to democracy. Against the scorched-earth opposition of a Republican-dominated congress, of course. That was a big priority for Clinton also, but she declined to tip her hand on just how she'd do it. Of course our next Democratic president and congress will also have it as a top priority. Nancy reminded the nation of that at the opening of the 116th congress, quoting Justice Brandeis of FDR's era:
"We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can't have both."
Reminds me that FDR initially ran on a very cautious platform, of necessity, and only after they were in office did Democrats unveil the scope of their wealth tax plan and pass the "soak the rich" laws of that era.
Only the specific details of Warren's particular plan to tax wealth are in any way "new," of course, and many people in and out of congress are debating how best to proceed, not whether to. Whether she becomes president or works from the senate or an important appointment, no doubt Warren will be encouraging public support for passage of bold action against this problem. A thought that makes me happy. Congress will need big support from the electorate to turn this around.
I enjoyed this very readable article, BlueM. Thanks.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
nbsmom
(591 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Aaron Pereira
(383 posts)Good start to answering the questions about "how are you going to pay for it" and "where is the magic money tree?"
You can't have a discussion about a wealth tax without addressing the tens of trillions hidden away in offshore tax dodge accounts and finally it looks like we have a candidate serious about cracking down.
Must read article. Thanks for posting.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided