will be the candidate.

For what it's worth, I wrote this about Bitecofer's relatively hopeful forecast: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212599797

Gotcha. Thanks so much.

Her policies are very much similar to Bernie's.

Sanders regularly blames the democratic party for the problems as well as blaming the republican party. In fact, Sanders would be perfectly happy if there were no democratic party to detract from his democratic socialism.

Warren is a democrat and doesn't want to burn the democratic party down.

Around 30% total of Hillary 2008 primary voters did not vote for Obama in the general, around 24-25% voted for McCain, around 5% did not vote in the general. I was only 12 years old at the time, and living (where I grew up) in London, but I have read extensively on this subject, both informally and at university via my political science classes. It was a very, very bitter primary in 2008, as exemplified by the so-called PUMA effect and other disruptive events and forces. Obama overcame it via a truly massive turnout and historical rates of African-American votes, the latter of which (lower minority voter turnout and higher rates of A-A's, especially A-A men, voting Republican) hurt Hillary significantly in 2016 (see a large post I did on that subject here https://www.democraticunderground.com/128736610#post18 ).




https://isps.yale.edu/research/data/d130

https://sites.duke.edu/hillygus/files/2014/06/hendersonhillygustompsonPOQ.pdf



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

snip


We can look at the 2016 Sanders primary supporters' numbers as well.

Obviously the 3rd party voters were a far smaller percentage in 2016 (it was around 8%) as 23%
of his 13,206,428 (and that number is actually around 13.75 -14 million, as it does not include popular vote totals from Iowa Caucuses (he got 85,055), Maine Caucuses, which has only district reps vote (2,226), Nevada Caucuses (9571) , North Dakota Caucuses (difficult to guess as they have delegates vote, and he had 253 in the districts), Washington (401,452 votes total for Sanders), Wyoming, or non-binding primary Nebraska primary (he got 37,744 votes)

is around 3.2 million votes. Stein only got 1,457,216 total votes (1.07%) nationwide. Also obviously, not every single one of her votes was a Bernie Dem voter. I will give number below of the percentage of Sanders 2016 primary voters who defected en toto below, but it was probably around 5% (If HALF her totals were Bernie voters) to 7% (if a full 70% of her total votes were Bernie primary voters who went Stein.) My guess based off 2012 numbers for her is that it was around 6%, and that turns out to be very close, as you wil see in the data below.

The danger when people show the total number numbers of Stein voters in the close states and say, 'Look, if you take ALL her votes and give them to Clinton, Clinton would have won easily!' is that a large chunk of her total voters would never vote for anything but the Green Party candidate, they are never Democratic or Republican voters, except for the one-off freak candidacy of Bernie in the primaries. Again, the real danger for us this time, in 2020 is that THIS group of 2020 Bernie voters are far, far less Democratic (many very hostile to us in fact) and far, far more radical than he had in 2016, so the haemorrhage is going to be far greater than in 2016 I fear.

so now lets drill down further


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

How many Sanders voters voted for Donald Trump?

Two surveys estimate that 12 percent of Sanders voters voted for Trump. A third survey suggests it was 6 percent.

First, the political scientist Brian Schaffner analyzed the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, which was conducted by YouGov and interviewed 64,600 Americans in October-November 2016. In that survey, Schaffner found that 12 percent of people who voted in the primary and reported voting for Sanders also voted in November and reported voting for Trump.

Schaffner examined only voters whose turnout in the primary and general election could be validated using voter file data. This excludes people who said they voted but actually did not — although it also excludes people who voted in caucuses or party-run primaries, for which validated turnout data are not as readily available.

Second, the same 12 percent figure emerges in the 2016 VOTER Survey, which was also conducted by YouGov and overseen by the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group (of which I am research director). In 2016, this survey interviewed 8,000 respondents in July, when they were asked their primary vote preference, and then in December, when they were asked their general election preference. This has the advantage of measuring primary preference closer to the primaries themselves and then tracking people over time. But their turnout in both elections has not been validated as of yet.

The third survey is the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey, which interviewed the same group of about 3,000 Americans six times during the campaign. Again, this survey has the advantage of tracking voters over time, but nobody’s turnout has been validated. Among voters who reported supporting Sanders as of March 2016, 6 percent then reported voting for Trump in November.

snip

I think the numbers of Bernie to Trump voters was probably around 10% overall (although I will show the numbers with 12% too). That 10% number is given here That link has a lot more data and goes into great depth, but at 10% Trump from Bernie defection rates, that would have swung the election to Hillary EXCEPT for one massive thing. The problem with saying those Berner to Trump voters made the diifrent completely ignores the Republican to Democratic switchers, as well. You cannot just pull out one set of switchers. Trump lost some support, too, of course. 34% of Kasich primary voters voted for Clinton. And 11% of Rubio primary voters did the same. Kasich had 4,290,448 votes, so 34% of that yields 1,458,752 Rethugs switching to Clinton, OR MORE than ALL of Bernie to Trump votes. Cruz had 7,822,100 Votes, so 11% of that yields 860,431 Rethug switches to Hillary. That is more votes than Bernie to Stein votes, or damn close. Next up is Rubio voters, who defected at a rate of 10%. Rubio had 3,515,576 votes, so that yields 351,558 Rehug to Hillary defections.

Add up those 3 numbers you get 2,670,741 Republican primary to Hillary general defection votes. That is just from THREE of losers, there were many other losing Repug smaller candidates who also had switchers to Clinton. The total was probably around 3 million Republican to Hillary switches.

If you take the 16% of Bernies 14 million primary votes (10% to Trump, 6% to Stein) that yields 2,240,000 Bernie to Trump defections, or far less than went the other way (Rethug to Clinton). In fact, lets say EVERY single Stein voter was a Bernie defector (Literally impossible in reality but lets do it just for fun). That yields 2,857,216 or so, which is still less than the total Rethug to Clinton total switches (counting all Repug primary voters).

I will now deal with last 2 categories. Non voters in the general and then the Gary Johnson general voters.

As for Sanders primary voters who didn't vote at all, it was only 3.5%. Hillary in 2008 had 5% of her primary voters not vote in the General. 5% of Republican primary voters didnt vote in the general.

A total of 8% went 3rd party from Bernie, so taking out Steins 6% (which I used in the calculation above) that leaves 2% who went to Johnson. That yields 280,000 votes. So the grand total of Bernie to other parties voters is 2,520,000 if you take the 10% to Trump number, or 2,800,000 if you give Trump a 12% Defection rate from Sanders primary. Still less than just Rethug primary voters who switched to Hillary. That is not even counting at all the Trump or any other candidates in the Rethug primary to Stein and especially Trump to Johnson switchers. Nor does it count the Rethug to Evan McMullin 732,273 votes (almost none came from Hillary or Bernie). Johnson took in a massive 4,489,233 votes. If only a third of the rate (so 4%, although I think it was higher, as he had 3 MILLION more votes than in 2012) defected from the Rethugs than did Bernie to Trump voters, that means Trump lost another 1,247,354 votes as there where 31,183,841 total votes cast in the Republican primaries.

That means over 5 MILLION defections from Trump to Hillary and 3rd parties, versus around 2.5m to 2.8 million defections away from Hillary via Bernie primary voters. Large net plus for Sec Clinton

No one gets all the votes.

We were fortunate that Obama could attract more than those who defected.

Not so much in 2016.