Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538: No one is getting many endorsements
Link to tweet
Sen. Elizabeth Warren has moved into the top tier of the Democratic primary field in national polls, joining former Vice President Joe Biden. Further, she leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and raised more than anyone except Sen. Bernie Sanders from July through September.
And yet, according to our endorsement tracker, Warren isnt getting much support from Democratic Party elites, such as elected officials and members of the Democratic National Committee. In fact, she doesnt just trail Biden in endorsement points by our metrics, but also Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, who are both well behind her in polling and fundraising. Warren is fifth in endorsements from Democratic state legislators (behind Biden, Booker, Harris and Sanders), according to research by Boris Shor, a political scientist at the University of Houston. And its not just that Warren is getting stiffed by more centrist Democrats who might disagree with her on the issues: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Ilhan Omar of Minnesota endorsed Sanders last week.
No one is getting many endorsements
This is probably the simplest and best explanation. The clear leader in endorsements is really not Biden, but undecided.
By this point in the 2016 Democratic primary, in contrast, a huge bloc Democratic governors, senators and representatives had chosen a candidate, Hillary Clinton. But this cycle, the overwhelming majority of congressional Democrats and Democratic governors are still on the sidelines.1 Indeed, the 2020 Democratic primary looks more like the 2016 Republican primary, when most GOP officials held their fire until deep into the race, than that years Democratic race.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-arent-more-democrats-endorsing-warren/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)I blame it on the overcrowded debates that artificially prolong the "life" of non-viable candidates. Once we're down to the top 4 or 5, then those who typically offer endorsements will begin to do so.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)"Undecided" is lack of an endorsement.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)It's very puzzling... I mean, everyone knows Joe Biden...
Or is that part of the problem?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Could DU be the new hidden national trend setter?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LanternWaste
(37,748 posts)That it's asked of only one is strikingly indicative of a "part of the problem"
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)I mean everyone knows Joe Biden...
And Not EVERYONE was at the top of the polls as long as Biden has been...
So... What gives?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
redqueen
(115,103 posts)Not sure why there's seemingly no discussion here about of one of the most talked-about things wrt Biden after these debates - other than to say that it's not a bug, but a feature.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)5 current Senators
9 former Senators
16 current Representatives
12 former Representatives
4 former Cabinet Officials
3 former Ambassadors
3 current Governors
3 former Governors
2 Mayors of large, majority African American cities - Atlanta and Detroit
9 former Democratic Party Chairs
3 DNC Members
Dozens of state legislators
On the other hand, Warren's endorsements:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Elizabeth_Warren
1 current Senators
0 former Senators
8 current Representatives
0 former Representatives
0 former Cabinet Officials
0 former Ambassadors
0 current Governors
1 former Governors
0 Mayors
0 former Democratic Party Chairs
0 DNC Members
And Sanders:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bernie_Sanders_2020_presidential_campaign_endorsements
1 current Senators
1 former Senators
4 current Representatives
0 former Representatives
0 former Cabinet Officials
0 former Ambassadors
0 current Governors
1 former Governors
3 Mayors (including the Mayor of San Juan)
0 former Democratic Party Chairs
6 DNC Members
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(145,530 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)But what do they know, right?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)You might want to ask them why they don't think former officials matter as much as sitting office holders.
Or Ambassadors... seriously? Ambassadors? Aren't those usually just rich donors?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Piiolo
(26 posts)Endorsements will come later.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(145,530 posts)Link to tweet
Secondly, electoral considerations aside, there is a center-left wing of the Democratic Party that fundamentally disagrees with Warrens more leftward positions. Its hard to imagine some of these figures endorsing Warren before she has effectively already won the nomination. (That fits with Shors findings Warrens endorsers at the state legislative level are more liberal than the endorsers of any of the other candidates.)
These problems are not unique to Warren. Sanders was perceived as too far to the left by many Democratic elites in 2016; he got very few endorsements back then and is not getting many this cycle, either. (Sen. Amy Klobuchar actually leads Sanders in endorsement points.)
Warren also has a third challenge with party elites that is less obvious. The Massachusetts senator clashed with senior aides to President Obama for much of his tenure in the White House. She, like Sanders, isnt quite in line with the partys establishment. A Warren administration would probably be less likely to hire former Clinton (Bill and Hillary) and Obama aides in key posts than, say, a Biden, Booker or Harris one. So people connected with the party establishment (like many DNC members) may be fine with Warren but prefer other candidates for more self-interested reasons.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
bluewater
(5,376 posts)For a variety of reasons, we opted not to track endorsements from groups (as opposed to individuals). So that leaves out, for example, Warren winning the backing of the Working Families Party, a liberal activist group that has chapters in 15 states and is influential in places like New York. Several of the other candidates, including Sanders, pushed hard for that endorsement, and it may be more valuable than the backing of a handful of members of Congress.
A strict count of formal endorsements also leaves out less official institutional support. The liberal activist groups under the broader Indivisible umbrella, MSNBC (particularly its more left-leaning hosts like Rachel Maddow) and Pod Save America arent likely to endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary. But the general ethos of those organizations is closer to Republicans are morally bankrupt and must be confronted aggressively, than Democrats can work with Mitch McConnell. (Biden hints at the latter, Warren the former.)
Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who has studied Democratic activist groups like Indivisible that have emerged after the 2016 campaign, says that many individual Indivisible chapters dont want to formally endorse a candidate in the primary. They fear endorsements would create divides and make it harder for those groups to unify for the general election. But Putnam also says that many of the activists involved in post-2016 anti-Trump organizing are backing Warren. And they are acting on that support through, say, Facebook groups that are separate from the respective larger anti-Trump groups these activists are also affiliated with. (An informal August poll done of its members by national Indivisible also showed Warren as the activists favorite.)
Warren has a large number of potentially very influential supporters in the local grassroots space, and they are also the people most opposed to using public endorsements as a means of pressure to shape [the] primary contest, said Putnam.
Similarly, we are tracking the designated Democratic leader in state legislatures around the country, so we counted Georgia House Minority Leader Robert Trammells endorsement of Harris, for example. But the endorsement of Warren by Lorena Gonzalez, a rising star in the state House in California, a hugely important primary state, isnt captured in the FiveThirtyEight tracker, even though Gonzalezs backing may be more significant than Trammells. Molly Kelly, who was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 in New Hampshire, is also backing Warren; thats another fairly high-profile endorsement that doesnt fit our metrics. Warren has the most endorsements from state legislators in Iowa, which might be more significant than federal legislators or state legislative leaders.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
aikoaiko
(34,183 posts)Candidates likely put pressure on superdelegates to declare early to help them look like they were in the lead or in the running before a single primary/caucus occurred.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided