Democratic Primaries

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts) Fri Oct 25, 2019, 05:45 PM Oct 2019

Warren cutting into Biden's lead in new SC 2020 Democratic poll

Biden is still in the lead. But that lead has shrunk. Significantly.

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/warren-cutting-into-biden-s-lead-in-new-sc-democratic/article_3738ef56-f69f-11e9-97d4-9ff73bd65e23.html

... Biden’s lead in South Carolina, which had hovered around 20 percentage points since the summer, has shrunk in a Post and Courier-Change Research poll released Thursday.

Biden received 30 percent to Warren’s 19 percent.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13 percent and California Sen. Kamala Harris at 11 percent are the only two other candidates with double-digit results in South Carolina.

Biden’s support in Post and Courier-Change Research polls has fallen from a peak of 46 percent in May, soon after he formally entered the race. He lost 6 percentage points from the last poll taken in August.
...

Per The Hill - of which I am generally wary - Biden's lead has shrunk among a VERY important demographic: African-American women. They are literally the bedrock of the Democratic Party. There are cracks in the bulwark.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/467481-bidens-lead-shrinks-in-south-carolina-poll

...
Biden is running near the top in the three other early voting states as well, but South Carolina is viewed by many as his firewall, as he continues to lead the field among black voters, who make up about two-thirds of the Democratic primary electorate in the state.

But the Post and Courier survey found that Biden’s decline in South Carolina has largely been driven by African American women. Biden has lost 13 points month-over-month among that important voting bloc, and he has lost 10 points among women overall.

The Post and Courier-Change Research survey of 731 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina was conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 21 and has a 3.6 percentage point margin of error.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

35 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Warren cutting into Biden's lead in new SC 2020 Democratic poll (Original Post) BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 OP

Good news, thanks for posting! nt at140 Oct 2019 #1

My pleasure! BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #2

Definitely signs of cracks in Biden's Southern firewall. bluewater Oct 2019 #3

My guess is when SC finally votes, Warren will be in a dogfight with Biden in SC. Blue_true Oct 2019 #4

If Warren is within 10% in SC it would be a huge plus for her. bluewater Oct 2019 #5

Per this latest poll, BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #9

Don't hold your breath regarding how Anita Hill will affect our votes. She has no influence over our Skya Rhen Oct 2019 #10

"She has no influence over our sensibilities." bluewater Oct 2019 #11

I speak, with authority, for the majority. You are welcome. Skya Rhen Oct 2019 #13

"I speak, with authority, for the majority." bluewater Oct 2019 #20

Exactly. eom BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #15

It was bound to happen, and Biden's lead will continue to shrink nt Fiendish Thingy Oct 2019 #6

I am very leery of The Hill. emmaverybo Oct 2019 #7

But it isn't only BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #8

RCP reports Biden leads by average of 19.5 in S.C. in all polls. Let's go, Joe ! emmaverybo Oct 2019 #30

It's like we want to lose. nt UniteFightBack Oct 2019 #12

+1 LongtimeAZDem Oct 2019 #14

... BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #17

I'll see your facepalm and raise you two more. jcmaine72 Oct 2019 #35

We'll have to agree BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #16

I want to win by the biggest margin possible and I believe Biden provides that. Not sure why UniteFightBack Oct 2019 #19

Think about it BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #21

If it doesn't apply, let it fly. nt UniteFightBack Oct 2019 #22

I'm delighted when Warren gains ground, but... LAS14 Oct 2019 #18

I kinda feel sorry for Biden... SMC22307 Oct 2019 #23

Biden leads South Carolina by 19,5 points all polls on average...now go back to bed. Gothmog Oct 2019 #24

It's Biden Time! RudyColludie Oct 2019 #25

Keep up the great work, Joe! Taking it from all sides and still standing tall for the American emmaverybo Oct 2019 #27

Agreed Gothmog Oct 2019 #29

Thanks for being BlueMTexpat Oct 2019 #34

Impresive!! Tiggeroshii Oct 2019 #26

19.5 lead on average in all polls for S.C.? Damned tootin Joe Biden is impressive! emmaverybo Oct 2019 #28

Polling well in any poll with a state as conservative a population is impressive Tiggeroshii Oct 2019 #31

Were Republicans counted in the tally? Do you mean people who are liberals i.e. Dems, but emmaverybo Oct 2019 #32

Right. I mean the Democrats there are more conservative. Tiggeroshii Oct 2019 #33

at140

(6,110 posts)

1. Good news, thanks for posting! nt

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 05:51 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

2. My pleasure!

Reply to at140 (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 05:54 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

3. Definitely signs of cracks in Biden's Southern firewall.

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 06:27 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)

4. My guess is when SC finally votes, Warren will be in a dogfight with Biden in SC.

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 06:29 PM

Oct 2019

The winner takes the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

5. If Warren is within 10% in SC it would be a huge plus for her.

Reply to Blue_true (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 06:42 PM

Oct 2019

South Carolina is the state with the largest % of African Americans voting in the primaries, it's projected that Black voters will constitute 60% of SC primary voters..

Biden needs to run it up big in SC and other Southern states with a higher than average % of African American voters to offset Warren's 10% lead with white voters nationally.

If he doesn't, it's over.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

9. Per this latest poll,

Reply to bluewater (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 03:29 AM

Oct 2019

she is within 9%. If that holds, that is excellent.

IMO, African-American women may have longer memories of how Anita Hill was treated than some here on DU would like to admit.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

10. Don't hold your breath regarding how Anita Hill will affect our votes. She has no influence over our

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 09:06 AM

Oct 2019

sensibilities. The more she tries to stir things up, the more we remain steadfast. One thing you will eventually learn about AAs is that we are not fickled and easily swayed. Actually, to assume otherwise is insulting.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

11. "She has no influence over our sensibilities."

Reply to Skya Rhen (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 10:28 AM

Oct 2019

Thank you for speaking for ALL African Americans.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Skya Rhen

(2,701 posts)

13. I speak, with authority, for the majority. You are welcome.

Reply to bluewater (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 10:59 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

bluewater

(5,376 posts)

20. "I speak, with authority, for the majority."

Reply to Skya Rhen (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:47 AM

Oct 2019

The majority of ALL African Americans? Or even the majority of ALL Democratic African Americans?

And you speak for them "with authority"? What does that mean?

Are you an elected official?

Or are you asking us to just take your word on that...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

15. Exactly. eom

Reply to bluewater (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:25 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Fiendish Thingy

(15,624 posts)

6. It was bound to happen, and Biden's lead will continue to shrink nt

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 07:18 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

7. I am very leery of The Hill.

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Fri Oct 25, 2019, 07:19 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

8. But it isn't only

Reply to emmaverybo (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 03:25 AM

Oct 2019

The Hill that is reporting this.

Had it been the only source, I too would have been less inclined to post a link to it.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

30. RCP reports Biden leads by average of 19.5 in S.C. in all polls. Let's go, Joe !

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:49 PM

Oct 2019

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

UniteFightBack

(8,231 posts)

12. It's like we want to lose. nt

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 10:34 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LongtimeAZDem

(4,494 posts)

14. +1

Reply to UniteFightBack (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:13 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

17. ...

Reply to LongtimeAZDem (Reply #14)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:35 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

jcmaine72

(1,773 posts)

35. I'll see your facepalm and raise you two more.

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:41 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

16. We'll have to agree

Reply to UniteFightBack (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:34 AM

Oct 2019

to disagree if you think that Elizabeth Warren will automatically lose a GE.

Are YOU planning on NOT supporting her if she is the Dem nominee?

I am committed to voting for WHOEVER is the Dem nominee - even if it is NOT Elizabeth Warren, whom I believe is the best candidate. I post more than poll results to show why I believe that.

Are YOU committed to voting for WHOEVER is the Dem nominee - even if it is NOT Joe Biden?

Seriously.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

UniteFightBack

(8,231 posts)

19. I want to win by the biggest margin possible and I believe Biden provides that. Not sure why

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:46 AM

Oct 2019

you are even bringing in 'are you not planning to support BLAH BLAH BLAH'.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

21. Think about it

Reply to UniteFightBack (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:50 AM

Oct 2019

a bit more, please.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

UniteFightBack

(8,231 posts)

22. If it doesn't apply, let it fly. nt

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Reply #21)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:53 AM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

LAS14

(13,783 posts)

18. I'm delighted when Warren gains ground, but...

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 11:36 AM

Oct 2019

... I take no pleasure in attacks on Biden that should bear no weight in 2020.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

SMC22307

(8,090 posts)

23. I kinda feel sorry for Biden...

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 12:21 PM

Oct 2019

it may never be his time. And when the time comes, EVERY Democrat needs to get over hurt feelings about their candidate not winning the nomination and vote for the "D" in November!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

Gothmog

(145,321 posts)

24. Biden leads South Carolina by 19,5 points all polls on average...now go back to bed.

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:00 PM

Oct 2019

Link to tweet

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

RudyColludie

(43 posts)

25. It's Biden Time!

Reply to Gothmog (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:26 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

27. Keep up the great work, Joe! Taking it from all sides and still standing tall for the American

Reply to Gothmog (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:32 PM

Oct 2019

people.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Gothmog

(145,321 posts)

29. Agreed

Reply to emmaverybo (Reply #27)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:40 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BlueMTexpat

(15,369 posts)

34. Thanks for being

Reply to Gothmog (Reply #24)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 02:55 PM

Oct 2019

so concerned about my bedtime.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

26. Impresive!!

Reply to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:31 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

28. 19.5 lead on average in all polls for S.C.? Damned tootin Joe Biden is impressive!

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #26)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 01:34 PM

Oct 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

31. Polling well in any poll with a state as conservative a population is impressive

Reply to emmaverybo (Reply #28)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 02:39 PM

Oct 2019

For Warren. Shes doing great!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)

32. Were Republicans counted in the tally? Do you mean people who are liberals i.e. Dems, but

Reply to Tiggeroshii (Reply #31)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 02:46 PM

Oct 2019

socially or fiscally conservative? Just that it’s a feat for Warren to do well in the south?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)

33. Right. I mean the Democrats there are more conservative.

Reply to emmaverybo (Reply #32)

Sat Oct 26, 2019, 02:48 PM

Oct 2019

And it is a feat for warren to do well among that population.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

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