Democratic Primaries

crazytown

(7,277 posts) Fri Mar 22, 2019, 03:56 PM Mar 2019

The Atlantic: Nobody Knows Anything About 'Electability'

Nobody Knows Anything About ‘Electability’

When pundits anoint Biden—or Sanders or O’Rourke—as the likeliest to beat Trump, they’re making lots of dubious assumptions.

Have we learned nothing? In 2016, very few political writers, myself emphatically included, thought Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency. Very few thought Bernie Sanders would win 23 states and 13 million votes in his Democratic-primary battle with Hillary Clinton.

The voters were lousy prognosticators too. Although polls generally suggested that Sanders would fare better against Trump, voters overwhelmingly believed Hillary Clinton had a better chance of winning the general election. And in the closing weeks of the 2016 campaign, they overwhelmingly predicted that Clinton, not Trump, would triumph.

The point is that we, and they, simply don’t know. Electability is extremely hard to predict. And when pundits discuss it, they often rely on unstated and dubious assumptions—which usually lead them to predict that the most centrist candidate with the most establishment support is the person general-election voters will like best.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/03/joe-bidens-electability-myth/585508/

I agree. Electability is a moving target.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

5 replies

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The Atlantic: Nobody Knows Anything About 'Electability' (Original Post) crazytown Mar 2019 OP

+1000. We must know what most OTHERS want, not just what Hortensis Mar 2019 #1

Yes ismnotwasm Mar 2019 #2

Agreed Sherman A1 Mar 2019 #3

... crazytown Mar 2019 #4

Absolutely, we never know, here's a list of "unelectable" candidates. marylandblue Mar 2019 #5

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)

1. +1000. We must know what most OTHERS want, not just what

Reply to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Mar 22, 2019, 03:59 PM

Mar 2019

we want, and certainly not what we're told by pundits who make very good livings pretending they know what they cannot.

Currently, the results of the midterms should be studied very intensively and respected as by far our largest and most reliable source of information at this point.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ismnotwasm

(42,014 posts)

2. Yes

Reply to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Mar 22, 2019, 04:04 PM

Mar 2019

It’s a new world, and many of the older predictive models don’t seem as relevant

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Sherman A1

(38,958 posts)

3. Agreed

Reply to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Mar 22, 2019, 04:05 PM

Mar 2019

but there are pages to be filled, blogs to be posted and airtime on Cable Noise to fill between ads for drugs we never knew we needed. Most of everything we see or hear on this topic is simply opinion or conjecture. Candidate A might do better if The Sun rises earlier on Tuesday, while Candidate B has some terrible baggage from grammar school when they were late coming in from recess, yet we must remember that Candidate C has admitted to binging on Snickers Bars during an all night study session in college and that may affect their electability.

It's all pretty much drivel......

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

crazytown

(7,277 posts)

4. ...

Reply to crazytown (Original post)

Fri Mar 22, 2019, 07:12 PM

Mar 2019

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

marylandblue

(12,344 posts)

5. Absolutely, we never know, here's a list of "unelectable" candidates.

Reply to crazytown (Original post)

Sat Mar 23, 2019, 02:31 AM

Mar 2019

Or at least, were thought to be unelectable at some point.

Kennedy - A Catholic?!
Nixon - Lost in 1960 and wasn't coming back.
Carter - Jimmy who?
Reagan -Too conservative and a stupid actor, for God's sake!
Bill Clinton - Gave a boring speech in the 1988 Convention and of course he could never recover from that.
Bush Jr. - Can he tie his shoes without Dick Cheney's help?
Obama - Inexperienced and this country is still too racist.
And of course, gold-plated Satan himself.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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