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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

highplainsdem

(48,978 posts)
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:42 PM Dec 2019

Nate Silver: If Dems want a field representing their voters, they shouldn't have IA & NH vote first

He has a point:






If the Democratic Party wants a field that's representative of its members and its voters, it probably shouldn't have two states as white as Iowa and New Hampshire vote first every year.



If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
44 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nate Silver: If Dems want a field representing their voters, they shouldn't have IA & NH vote first (Original Post) highplainsdem Dec 2019 OP
Very true CanonRay Dec 2019 #1
This Helps Explains Bernie Appealing To Rightwingers on Immigration TomCADem Dec 2019 #26
Steve King is really attacking ALL of the Democrats by repeating they are for open borders karynnj Dec 2019 #42
It's a little late to put this out, right? elleng Dec 2019 #2
This isn't the first time Silver's commented on this problem. highplainsdem Dec 2019 #3
Many here have said this for months. brush Dec 2019 #24
I think Iowa and New Hampshire shouldn't be first for a lot of reasons... W_HAMILTON Dec 2019 #4
Is there any small(ish) state that has a Democratic Primary electorate that is representative TheRealNorth Dec 2019 #5
New Jersey. And though it's small in geography pnwmom Dec 2019 #6
Virginia is another option: spooky3 Dec 2019 #16
Yes! Any of these would be better than Iowa and NH. n/t pnwmom Dec 2019 #18
NJ shares a very expensive media market with NY. nt Kahuna7 Dec 2019 #30
When I lived in NJ we watched Philly TV. n/t pnwmom Dec 2019 #31
I live in North Jersey within a 30 commute to NYC. nt Kahuna7 Dec 2019 #32
You are both right karynnj Dec 2019 #43
Delaware's a small state, and more than 20% of the population is black, and 8% is Hispanic, highplainsdem Dec 2019 #8
That would be a good one. nt Kahuna7 Dec 2019 #33
I think Delaware would be a good idea. TheRealNorth Dec 2019 #38
Yep mcar Dec 2019 #7
Iowa made President Obama relevant in 2008. Blue_true Dec 2019 #9
Iowa voting for a senator from Illinois was like NH voting for one from VT or MA. highplainsdem Dec 2019 #12
Hillary was born in Illinois and was First Lady in Arkansas for years. Blue_true Dec 2019 #20
alot of that was Hillary hatred/sexism and Iraq War radius777 Dec 2019 #25
Two Black peoples nearly won the Governorships of Florida and Georgia. Blue_true Dec 2019 #36
The Rural Whites Uber Alles scheme is archaic, stupid, undemocratic bullshit. dalton99a Dec 2019 #10
Exactly! Cha Dec 2019 #11
Connecticut rather than New Hampshire crazytown Dec 2019 #13
NJ's both bigger in population (though small in land mass) and more diverse. pnwmom Dec 2019 #19
NH has a primary Renew Deal Dec 2019 #23
Large, expensive media market... Renew Deal Dec 2019 #22
Hard to figure a good starting place judeling Dec 2019 #14
Yes. Thank you! NurseJackie Dec 2019 #15
Here's a prediction...the next time there's an open Democratic Primary... brooklynite Dec 2019 #17
That argument would make sense if Harris wasn't polling 4th in California. Renew Deal Dec 2019 #21
Well, good luck getting Iowa and New Hampshire to give up going first - especially NH, which has Midwestern Democrat Dec 2019 #27
Funny that no one else seems to know that NH has it written into state law that it shall be first... TreasonousBastard Dec 2019 #40
Yes, if it is in state law, why do so man posters treestar Dec 2019 #44
Bravo. n/t Tarheel_Dem Dec 2019 #28
Gee. Would it be so crazy to have them all vote at the same time?? Tiggeroshii Dec 2019 #29
Silver has said a lot of stupid things lately, but he's right about that. Of course... Garrett78 Dec 2019 #34
Gee, what a new idea. Race is only ONE way of being representative. Hortensis Dec 2019 #35
True dat. TygrBright Dec 2019 #37
I agree with Nate Gothmog Dec 2019 #39
TRUE! Nt helpisontheway Dec 2019 #41
 

TomCADem

(17,387 posts)
26. This Helps Explains Bernie Appealing To Rightwingers on Immigration
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 01:40 AM
Dec 2019

Through his co-sponsorship of anti-immigration legislation with Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, which has even drawn praise from white supremist Iowa Congressman Steve King:


?lang=en
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
42. Steve King is really attacking ALL of the Democrats by repeating they are for open borders
Thu Dec 5, 2019, 10:18 AM
Dec 2019

None of them are. It is important that Democrats not use his comments as a wedge to split us especially without challenging that assumed RW smear of the left.

Here he does not say that he would vote for a House version of Sanders bill. In addition, he obviously sees Sanders to be too far out on many issues. What he is doing here is demonizing every other Democrat as being for open borders. He will have many issues, starting with being a Democratic Socialist, that he would hit Sanders on.

I have not read anything on Sanders' bill.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

elleng

(130,908 posts)
2. It's a little late to put this out, right?
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:51 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

highplainsdem

(48,978 posts)
3. This isn't the first time Silver's commented on this problem.
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:53 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

brush

(53,778 posts)
24. Many here have said this for months.
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 12:53 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

W_HAMILTON

(7,867 posts)
4. I think Iowa and New Hampshire shouldn't be first for a lot of reasons...
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:54 PM
Dec 2019

...but would it matter in this particular nomination? Because I believe Biden/Warren/Sanders/Buttigieg etc. are still at the top of more Democratic-looking states like California, etc.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TheRealNorth

(9,481 posts)
5. Is there any small(ish) state that has a Democratic Primary electorate that is representative
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 10:56 PM
Dec 2019

of the Democratic electorate as a whole?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
6. New Jersey. And though it's small in geography
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:03 PM
Dec 2019

it's not as small population wise (over 8 million)

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/NJ

Illinois would be another option. Bigger, but not quite as diverse.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/IL,NJ

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
18. Yes! Any of these would be better than Iowa and NH. n/t
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:52 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)
30. NJ shares a very expensive media market with NY. nt
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 04:24 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
31. When I lived in NJ we watched Philly TV. n/t
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 04:30 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)
32. I live in North Jersey within a 30 commute to NYC. nt
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 04:35 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

karynnj

(59,503 posts)
43. You are both right
Thu Dec 5, 2019, 10:24 AM
Dec 2019

Running in NJ is very expensive for ads that must be run in BOTH of those costly markets.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(48,978 posts)
8. Delaware's a small state, and more than 20% of the population is black, and 8% is Hispanic,
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:06 PM
Dec 2019

according to Wikipedia.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Kahuna7

(2,531 posts)
33. That would be a good one. nt
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 04:36 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TheRealNorth

(9,481 posts)
38. I think Delaware would be a good idea.
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 09:46 PM
Dec 2019

Maybe Wisconsin would be better than Iowa- similar in size, a little more diverse, and it is the swingiest of swing states.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
9. Iowa made President Obama relevant in 2008.
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:11 PM
Dec 2019

Had the race started first in a Georgia, Florida or California, Hillary would have most likely won the nomination because President Obama would not have been able to match her early money and name recognition advantage. When President Obama won Iowa and was competitive in New Hampshire before losing there, AA voters took his chances for real, the rest is history.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

highplainsdem

(48,978 posts)
12. Iowa voting for a senator from Illinois was like NH voting for one from VT or MA.
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:22 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
20. Hillary was born in Illinois and was First Lady in Arkansas for years.
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:57 PM
Dec 2019

That didn't help her in Iowa because President Obama simply ran a more strategic campaign.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

radius777

(3,635 posts)
25. alot of that was Hillary hatred/sexism and Iraq War
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 01:20 AM
Dec 2019

which Obama had no vote on, making him seem 'pure' compared to the other Dem contenders. And Obama was a political rockstar, a once in a generation talent. And this was a time before Birtherism/Trumpism/Tea Party/BLM. Obama would not win in this climate, where whites in both parties have moved to a more racially conservative direction.

IA and NH are small white states that set the narrative of a party whose base is diverse/metropolitan.

Basically we have a nomination system that benefits rural whites, just like the Electoral College, the Senate, etc.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
36. Two Black peoples nearly won the Governorships of Florida and Georgia.
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 08:01 PM
Dec 2019

A conservative Black man was elected Attorney General in Kentucky, the third highest office in the state. The Black population of both Georgia and Florida is around 15-18%. In Florida, my home state, most of the votes the Black candidate got for Governor came from White people, a very large percentage of his total vote, he lost by around 14,000 votes or something like that. Absent cheating by republicans, the race in Georgia with Stacey Abrams was as close as the one in Florida, Whites made the foundation of her support, there is no way that she could have even been competitive otherwise.

Yes, race plays a big role in our everyday life, but the total picture is more complex than your dystopian view. I believe that if President Obama ran today, he would win and a massive amount of his support would be from Whites. What I see today is many voters know that they are being screwed by the system, the problem is they won't or can't figure out where they are being screwed from and as a result a Republican Party remains relevant when it should be dead. I honestly would like to meet one or two of the people that voted twice for President Obama and for Trump in 2016, the driver for those people doing what they did is more complex than simple racism and we are fools is we continue to believe that narrative.

I trust Iowa and New Hampshire voters to properly narrow the field, they did that well with Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Hillary. A person just has to run a focused and strong campaign, I don't believe that Harris did that.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

dalton99a

(81,495 posts)
10. The Rural Whites Uber Alles scheme is archaic, stupid, undemocratic bullshit.
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:17 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

crazytown

(7,277 posts)
13. Connecticut rather than New Hampshire
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:27 PM
Dec 2019

10.5% AA, Population 3.57m. Allow Iowa to hold primaries.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

pnwmom

(108,978 posts)
19. NJ's both bigger in population (though small in land mass) and more diverse.
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:54 PM
Dec 2019

But yes, ALL states should dump unrepresentative caucuses in favor of primaries.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Renew Deal

(81,859 posts)
22. Large, expensive media market...
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 12:03 AM
Dec 2019

Treacherous campaigning in the winter months, heavy finance/Wall St. influence.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

judeling

(1,086 posts)
14. Hard to figure a good starting place
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:28 PM
Dec 2019

We want a relatively small swingy states to start or it will be all money. We want it swingy or we doom ourselves over time.
But that really limits the diversity. Maybe Minnesota or Wisconsin and Georgia not small but could work some. Good Urban Rural mix.

But I'd prefer a two phased process. Half of the delegates awarded in the first phase that would resemble the current system. With the early states all in January and the could remain the same.

Phase 2 would be a national Primary the first Tuesday of June. As long as May is open this would allow for the voters to do a lot more of the winnowing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

brooklynite

(94,572 posts)
17. Here's a prediction...the next time there's an open Democratic Primary...
Tue Dec 3, 2019, 11:50 PM
Dec 2019

...it'll start with Iowa and New Hampshire.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Renew Deal

(81,859 posts)
21. That argument would make sense if Harris wasn't polling 4th in California.
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 12:01 AM
Dec 2019

There might be reasons other than race why Harris didn't succeed.

Besides that, the frontrunner in those states is either a gay man or an elderly Jewish man, or a woman depending on the poll. So it's hard to argue that the voters are biased.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 
27. Well, good luck getting Iowa and New Hampshire to give up going first - especially NH, which has
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 01:50 AM
Dec 2019

been the first in the nation primary since 1920 - more than 50 years prior to the vast majority of states even having presidential primaries. The last time states tried to leap frog those two states - in 2008 - we wound up having the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in the first week of January - just about the worst time you could pick for holding the first primary/caucus - right after Christmas/New Years and taking place during the worst weather of the year.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

TreasonousBastard

(43,049 posts)
40. Funny that no one else seems to know that NH has it written into state law that it shall be first...
Thu Dec 5, 2019, 03:59 AM
Dec 2019

and that the DNC tried to change things. Once-- and found out it wasn't so easy.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

treestar

(82,383 posts)
44. Yes, if it is in state law, why do so man posters
Thu Dec 5, 2019, 11:34 AM
Dec 2019

act as if the DNC can just make a decree?

Also why do we have to gie so much credibility to the states that go first?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Tiggeroshii

(11,088 posts)
29. Gee. Would it be so crazy to have them all vote at the same time??
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 02:46 AM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)
34. Silver has said a lot of stupid things lately, but he's right about that. Of course...
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 05:24 AM
Dec 2019

...he's really only stating what has been obvious to many of us for many years.

Starting with IA and NH has always been ridiculous. And it has a major impact on the results.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
35. Gee, what a new idea. Race is only ONE way of being representative.
Wed Dec 4, 2019, 07:52 AM
Dec 2019

It's one big one, but looking at various others, IA actually is far more representative of the nation than realized. Something written on many times, particularly in books and articles discussing this very topic.

Silver's presenting what could be a bare statement out of of the intro to Politics for Dummies explaining that the professionals in government, whose excellence took them the top of their fields years ago, are the dummies. Sheesh. Even the real dummies, most of us, know Iowa is overwhelmingly white. What we don't know is everything else.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Gothmog

(145,243 posts)
39. I agree with Nate
Thu Dec 5, 2019, 03:05 AM
Dec 2019

Iowa and New Hampshire are each 90+% white and do not reflect the demographics of the party

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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