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*NEW* Virginia Poll (Likely Voters) vs Trump: Biden (+3), Sanders (-3), Warren (-) (Original Post) Skya Rhen Dec 2019 OP
Is this good news? Hillary won VA by 5.2% Cattledog Dec 2019 #1
1) all the movement is with "independent" voters shifting spooky3 Dec 2019 #2
this is bad evertonfc Dec 2019 #3
Let's not be so sure. boomer_wv Dec 2019 #4
This is awful news! I think Obama won by 8. Hillary by 5 and now Biden only by 3? helpisontheway Dec 2019 #5
Only 51% women to 49% to men in the poll bradla24 Dec 2019 #7
This message was self-deleted by its author bradla24 Dec 2019 #6
After the massive gains and vote totals in the 2019 VA legislative races, these numbers are way off. LonePirate Dec 2019 #8
K&R Tarheel_Dem Dec 2019 #9
Clinton probably got a big boost there with Kaine on ticket. David__77 Dec 2019 #10
That poll is disturbing all around democrattotheend Dec 2019 #11
 

Cattledog

(5,917 posts)
1. Is this good news? Hillary won VA by 5.2%
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 03:46 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

spooky3

(34,463 posts)
2. 1) all the movement is with "independent" voters shifting
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 03:56 PM
Dec 2019

to Trump.
2) MOE of 5 percentage points
3) phone call response rate is about 8%. I don’t know how this compares to that for other polls. But it is a very low number and unlikely to be representative of voters—even with the pollsters’ adjustments.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

evertonfc

(1,713 posts)
3. this is bad
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 04:07 PM
Dec 2019

If your not ahead of Trump, at this point, in freaking VA- your not a legitimate candidate. His acquittal in Senate will only help him. We simply may not have the right candidates to be beat him. I dunno but this is very concerning

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

boomer_wv

(673 posts)
4. Let's not be so sure.
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 04:20 PM
Dec 2019

The incumbent party has lost the White House in each election following an impeachment, or near impeachment. That includes Clinton which was a less popular impeachment than this.

Besides, this is a VCU poll which has an R house effect. It should be expected to be a point or two better for Trump.

The Democrat nominee will win Virginia, and likely by 7 or 8 points.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

helpisontheway

(5,008 posts)
5. This is awful news! I think Obama won by 8. Hillary by 5 and now Biden only by 3?
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 04:24 PM
Dec 2019

Really? Why in the hell would Virginia be turning back red with that demon in the White House? Al this after flipping the state legislature Blue last month? 😡 Hope this is an outlier..

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

bradla24

(16 posts)
7. Only 51% women to 49% to men in the poll
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 04:42 PM
Dec 2019

My original post indicated that they had polled more men than women. However, it looks like they did adjust it after the responses. Although it is telling that before they adjusted they got 443 men responses versus 375 women. I still think it should be closer to 52% women to 48% men. Also 30% democrats to 29% republicans in Virginia. Nope. I also think they may have gotten skewed results by asking about reparations. Ugh I cant stand unskewing polls.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided

Response to Skya Rhen (Original post)

 

LonePirate

(13,428 posts)
8. After the massive gains and vote totals in the 2019 VA legislative races, these numbers are way off.
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 05:29 PM
Dec 2019

There is no way the Dem candidate wins VA by less than 7-8 points. 45 is absolutely loathed in the beltway and the other blue centers in VA.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

David__77

(23,453 posts)
10. Clinton probably got a big boost there with Kaine on ticket.
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 06:50 PM
Dec 2019

I would not take Virginia for granted.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)
11. That poll is disturbing all around
Fri Dec 20, 2019, 08:48 PM
Dec 2019

All of the Democratic candidates have lost ground compared to previous polls and compared to Hillary's performance in VA in 2016.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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