Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumOpinion: The message from a recent Times focus group? Bernie Sanders is still in the game
(snip)
Ive been conducting these voter forums since 1996, when my NBC News panel had Bill Clinton crushing Bob Dole in their second presidential debate. Since then, Ive done sessions for CBS, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC, the BBC, and a host of national and international news outlets. Their record of selecting debate winners and predicting election outcomes isnt bad. These panels narrowly chose George W. Bush versus Al Gore in 2000, selected Bush over John Kerry in 2004, unanimously chose Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008, and gave Obama the win over Mitt Romney in two of the three debates in 2012.
(snip)
The benefactor of all that shifting was Sanders. Republicans (and many independents) consider Sanders and his policies extreme, but the majority of our Democratic participants saw him as mainstream, embrace most or all of his agenda, and most importantly, love his passion. The reason this matters? It helps explain why Sanders has risen in the California polls in recent weeks: His appeal for a progressive agenda is full-throated and unapologetic. Unlike Biden, he doesnt appear to waver. Unlike Warren, he doesnt get tripped up by those pesky policy details. And unlike Pete Buttigieg, he is always on the attack.
For the participants in our focus group, those things mattered. They liked that Sanders stated what he stood for without hesitation or reservation, and they believed he could take the fight right to Trumps front door. Candidly, I thought Sanders was too extreme and that Democrats would fear the rejection by moderates and independents to his left-wing lecturing and caffeine-laced delivery.
(snip)
In our focus group, seven people came to the session as Biden supporters, but only three felt he won the debate. Conversely, six people arrived at the L.A. Times studios supporting Sanders, but 14 left the premises believing Sanders did the best of all the candidates.
(snip)
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-12-23/bernie-sanders-is-still-very-much-in-the-game
Edit to add, I just found a video interview of Luntz regarding the debate focus group.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(32,778 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
booley
(3,855 posts)Why do people consistently rate Sanders's policies as better or say he won a debate even when they said they supported another candidate?
That is not an opinion. That is an observed fact. (on which this opinion is based)
There's nothing wrong with an opinion if it fits the facts.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts).....of this focus group, is that in those previous cases the nominees were already determined by the parties. We still are about two months away from our first state caucus and have 10-15 candidates. It's not a matter of choosing between one Democratic candidate and one republican candidate.
The focus group also consisted of only 25 people who had to choose among 10-15 people. From reading it, it looks like they went on until some were "worn down", which is not how elections work.
That's 19 of 25 who shifted "like palm trees swaying in the breeze - that doesn't instill confidence that it's accurate.
Also, they were all from Southern California, which is markedly different from the rest of the state.
THOSE are the facts, and from those the writer used his opinion to come to his conclusion.
Now HERE is the big thing. It was conducted by Frank Luntz:
Luntz has frequently contributed to Fox News as a commentator and analyst, as well as running focus groups
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz
I rest my case.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
booley
(3,855 posts)Problem is we don't' have to rely on Luntz's focus group
People trust sanders on these issues more than other candidates, even when they plan on voting for other candidates. This is consistent with what was said in the focus group.
And it's funny how you use opinion to make your case.
And that last part was a genetic fallacy.
But hey, thanks for trying to make an actual argument with some kind of substance.
So anyway I think this is the focus group being reffered to. I don't' post it for you since you apparently "rested your case" but for anyone else if they want too see if the people were swaying like palm trees or were "worn down"
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)I don't understand how so much credence is put in a focus group conducted by a right winger who helped Newt Gingrich with his "Contract for America" and who appears frequently on Fox News.
As a matter of fact, we probably should NOT rely on this focus group.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
janterry
(4,429 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Autumn
(45,107 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
stopdiggin
(11,317 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
TexasTowelie
(112,250 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
hedda_foil
(16,375 posts)He's an expert manipulator of opinion and may have been working to pull Trump's perceived strongest opponent's ranking down and the Republicans' perceived weakest Dem candidate up. I've seen him do the same thing with other Dem candidates in the past.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)Luntz was both Pat Buchanan's pollster and Newt Gingrich's pollster. He worked on the language for the "Contract With America". I have never seen him work for a Democrat. Luntz is the very definition of a sneaky political operative.
I also know that Trump would much rather go against Bernie than Biden, and he'd much rather go against Bernie than Warren. Warren scares the Republicans because they worry about how many Independent and Republican women might go for her. Biden scares Republcans because they think he can get votes from Indepedents and people in the Rust Belt.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
booley
(3,855 posts)I am not a fan of Luntz either but he does know what he is doing.
And his MO is to get an accurate idea of how people feel so that he can better manipulate them later. So it's not as if he can't do an honest focus group. (Historically it just wasn't always in his financial interest to do so)
I don't' think he's doing that last part here. I watched the focus group he did. Didn't' see any manipulative questions of framing. And I haven't' seen anything to indicate Luntz wants Sanders to be the nominee.
Still, it is Luntz. However the polls also back this up. People trust Sanders on the issues, even when they plan on voting for another candidate. So I don't think we have to trust Luntz on this anyway.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)Luntz has frequently contributed to Fox News as a commentator and analyst...
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Response to George II (Reply #14)
booley This message was self-deleted by its author.
greatauntoftriplets
(175,742 posts)Frank Luntz is an example of the latter.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Uncle Joe
(58,366 posts)Bernie didn't win, but the focus group overwhelmingly believed that Sanders did prevail.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided