Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Uncle Joe

(58,366 posts)
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 03:00 PM Dec 2019

Opinion: The message from a recent Times focus group? Bernie Sanders is still in the game



(snip)

I’ve been conducting these voter forums since 1996, when my NBC News panel had Bill Clinton crushing Bob Dole in their second presidential debate. Since then, I’ve done sessions for CBS, ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, CNBC, the BBC, and a host of national and international news outlets. Their record of selecting debate winners — and predicting election outcomes — isn’t bad. These panels narrowly chose George W. Bush versus Al Gore in 2000, selected Bush over John Kerry in 2004, unanimously chose Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008, and gave Obama the win over Mitt Romney in two of the three debates in 2012.

(snip)

The benefactor of all that shifting was Sanders. Republicans (and many independents) consider Sanders and his policies extreme, but the majority of our Democratic participants saw him as mainstream, embrace most or all of his agenda, and most importantly, love his passion. The reason this matters? It helps explain why Sanders has risen in the California polls in recent weeks: His appeal for a progressive agenda is full-throated and unapologetic. Unlike Biden, he doesn’t appear to waver. Unlike Warren, he doesn’t get tripped up by those pesky policy details. And unlike Pete Buttigieg, he is always on the attack.

For the participants in our focus group, those things mattered. They liked that Sanders stated what he stood for without hesitation or reservation, and they believed he could take the fight right to Trump’s front door. Candidly, I thought Sanders was too extreme and that Democrats would fear the rejection by moderates and independents to his left-wing lecturing and caffeine-laced delivery.

(snip)

In our focus group, seven people came to the session as Biden supporters, but only three felt he won the debate. Conversely, six people arrived at the L.A. Times studios supporting Sanders, but 14 left the premises believing Sanders did the best of all the candidates.

(snip)


https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-12-23/bernie-sanders-is-still-very-much-in-the-game



Edit to add, I just found a video interview of Luntz regarding the debate focus group.


If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Opinion: The message from a recent Times focus group? Bernie Sanders is still in the game (Original Post) Uncle Joe Dec 2019 OP
Key word: "OPINION" George II Dec 2019 #1
Right!! Thekaspervote Dec 2019 #4
would be more helpful if you addressed the facts booley Dec 2019 #11
The fact is that the other surveys in the past that is being used to predict the accuracy.... George II Dec 2019 #13
Ahh genetic fallacy booley Dec 2019 #16
Right, we don't have to rely on this focus group, but it's the subject of the OP.... George II Dec 2019 #18
I keep hoping that we'll do the right thing janterry Dec 2019 #2
Laughable PubliusEnigma Dec 2019 #3
The focus group got it! Thanks for posting Uncle Joe. Autumn Dec 2019 #5
Thank you Autumn. Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #8
yes. but did they leave thinking he had the best shot at winning? (nt) stopdiggin Dec 2019 #6
. TexasTowelie Dec 2019 #7
I'd be happier about this if it wasn't Luntz who conducted the focus group. hedda_foil Dec 2019 #9
You are totally right. Sloumeau Dec 2019 #10
Yes and no booley Dec 2019 #12
Are you familiar with Frank Luntz' work? George II Dec 2019 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author booley Dec 2019 #17
As they say, opinions are like assholes. greatauntoftriplets Dec 2019 #15
Well Frank's personal opinion according to his own words in the OP is that Uncle Joe Dec 2019 #19
 

booley

(3,855 posts)
11. would be more helpful if you addressed the facts
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 04:23 PM
Dec 2019

Why do people consistently rate Sanders's policies as better or say he won a debate even when they said they supported another candidate?


That is not an opinion. That is an observed fact. (on which this opinion is based)

There's nothing wrong with an opinion if it fits the facts.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
13. The fact is that the other surveys in the past that is being used to predict the accuracy....
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 04:46 PM
Dec 2019

.....of this focus group, is that in those previous cases the nominees were already determined by the parties. We still are about two months away from our first state caucus and have 10-15 candidates. It's not a matter of choosing between one Democratic candidate and one republican candidate.

The focus group also consisted of only 25 people who had to choose among 10-15 people. From reading it, it looks like they went on until some were "worn down", which is not how elections work.

The other 19 wavered as the night wore on, shifting effortlessly between the candidates like palm trees swaying in the breeze.


That's 19 of 25 who shifted "like palm trees swaying in the breeze - that doesn't instill confidence that it's accurate.

Also, they were all from Southern California, which is markedly different from the rest of the state.

THOSE are the facts, and from those the writer used his opinion to come to his conclusion.

Now HERE is the big thing. It was conducted by Frank Luntz:

Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant, pollster and pundit,[1][2] best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes. His work has included assistance with messaging for Newt Gingrich's Contract with America, and public relations support for pro-Israel policies in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. He advocated use of vocabulary crafted to produce a desired effect; including use of the term death tax instead of estate tax, and climate change instead of global warming.

Luntz has frequently contributed to Fox News as a commentator and analyst, as well as running focus groups


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz

I rest my case.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

booley

(3,855 posts)
16. Ahh genetic fallacy
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 05:17 PM
Dec 2019

Problem is we don't' have to rely on Luntz's focus group
People trust sanders on these issues more than other candidates, even when they plan on voting for other candidates. This is consistent with what was said in the focus group.

And it's funny how you use opinion to make your case.

And that last part was a genetic fallacy.

But hey, thanks for trying to make an actual argument with some kind of substance.

So anyway I think this is the focus group being reffered to. I don't' post it for you since you apparently "rested your case" but for anyone else if they want too see if the people were swaying like palm trees or were "worn down"

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
18. Right, we don't have to rely on this focus group, but it's the subject of the OP....
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 05:43 PM
Dec 2019

I don't understand how so much credence is put in a focus group conducted by a right winger who helped Newt Gingrich with his "Contract for America" and who appears frequently on Fox News.

As a matter of fact, we probably should NOT rely on this focus group.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

janterry

(4,429 posts)
2. I keep hoping that we'll do the right thing
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 03:11 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Autumn

(45,107 posts)
5. The focus group got it! Thanks for posting Uncle Joe.
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 03:23 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

Uncle Joe

(58,366 posts)
8. Thank you Autumn.
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 03:36 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

stopdiggin

(11,317 posts)
6. yes. but did they leave thinking he had the best shot at winning? (nt)
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 03:31 PM
Dec 2019
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

hedda_foil

(16,375 posts)
9. I'd be happier about this if it wasn't Luntz who conducted the focus group.
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 03:58 PM
Dec 2019

He's an expert manipulator of opinion and may have been working to pull Trump's perceived strongest opponent's ranking down and the Republicans' perceived weakest Dem candidate up. I've seen him do the same thing with other Dem candidates in the past.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Sloumeau

(2,657 posts)
10. You are totally right.
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 04:11 PM
Dec 2019

Luntz was both Pat Buchanan's pollster and Newt Gingrich's pollster. He worked on the language for the "Contract With America". I have never seen him work for a Democrat. Luntz is the very definition of a sneaky political operative.

I also know that Trump would much rather go against Bernie than Biden, and he'd much rather go against Bernie than Warren. Warren scares the Republicans because they worry about how many Independent and Republican women might go for her. Biden scares Republcans because they think he can get votes from Indepedents and people in the Rust Belt.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

booley

(3,855 posts)
12. Yes and no
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 04:29 PM
Dec 2019

I am not a fan of Luntz either but he does know what he is doing.

And his MO is to get an accurate idea of how people feel so that he can better manipulate them later. So it's not as if he can't do an honest focus group. (Historically it just wasn't always in his financial interest to do so)

I don't' think he's doing that last part here. I watched the focus group he did. Didn't' see any manipulative questions of framing. And I haven't' seen anything to indicate Luntz wants Sanders to be the nominee.

Still, it is Luntz. However the polls also back this up. People trust Sanders on the issues, even when they plan on voting for another candidate. So I don't think we have to trust Luntz on this anyway.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
14. Are you familiar with Frank Luntz' work?
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 04:51 PM
Dec 2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Luntz

Frank Ian Luntz (born February 23, 1962) is an American political and communications consultant, pollster and pundit, best known for developing talking points and other messaging for Republican causes. His work has included assistance with messaging for Newt Gingrich's Contract with America, and public relations support for pro-Israel policies in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. He advocated use of vocabulary crafted to produce a desired effect; including use of the term death tax instead of estate tax, and climate change instead of global warming.

Luntz has frequently contributed to Fox News as a commentator and analyst...
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden

Response to George II (Reply #14)

 

greatauntoftriplets

(175,742 posts)
15. As they say, opinions are like assholes.
Mon Dec 23, 2019, 04:54 PM
Dec 2019

Frank Luntz is an example of the latter.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Uncle Joe

(58,366 posts)
19. Well Frank's personal opinion according to his own words in the OP is that
Tue Dec 24, 2019, 12:38 AM
Dec 2019

Bernie didn't win, but the focus group overwhelmingly believed that Sanders did prevail.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»Democratic Primaries»Opinion: The message from...