The only poll that matters in election day.

instead of worthless individual polls that seem to make the point the person wants to make.

Really.

There are many polls.

Pick the one you like and swear by it.

Swear at the others.

If I pay any attention to polling, it is to trends in the aggregated polls. Those are the best indicator of where things are and where they are likely to go.

Individual polls are useless before even one primary has been held. Completely useless.

I like Nate's averages of polls.

In addition, state polls usually have smaller sample size and a higher margin of error. It also hard to poll states as large as Texas or California without a very large sample size from multiple regions

Mostly just trend lines, though. The numbers tend to change to some degree or other, but the trend lines tell the story pretty well.

I pay almost no attention to state polling at all. We'll know soon enough how those states vote. As you say, most state polls have too small a sample to really be very accurate.

The primary trend on a national basis is that Joe Biden is holding steady at the top of the pack. Because of the 15% rule, that's more important than anything else, really. He has been on top of the national aggregate all along, since even before he declared his candidacy. That cannot be ignored.

The Democratic primary race is clouded even further by having so many candidates currently in the race. Particularly in the second place position, there are two candidates splitting the preferences. They're also flirting with the 15% rule all the time. That makes Biden's 30% or so even more relevant.

I know you understand that, but it seems like most people do not. I've posted a few explanations of the 15% rule, but those posts get few views and not many comments. That, to me, indicates that people are not really paying attention to what matters in the primaries. So, I tend to discount fans of most candidates who focus on small changes in the polling as signs of something.

Fortunately, we're rapidly approaching actual primary time. While the first four events may serve to winnow out some of the chaff, it will be Super Tuesday that will probably narrow the race down to just three candidates. At that point, things will start to reflect reality, rather than a complicated fantasy league formula.

We know who the three candidates left standing will be already. But, the undecideds and the followers of poorly polling candidate will make all the difference once there are only three to consider. I can't wait.

In addition proportional voting allocation will keep anyone from getting a significsnt lead in the first two contests. I can see the top three or four candidates coming out of these two events essentially tied with no more than 5 to 7 delegates separating them.

the headline was based on around 50 out of 120 Hispanics/Latinos (Repubs included) stating whether they'd be satisfied or unsatisfied should Biden win the primaries with the percentages reversed in Biden's favor in the previous month.

The polling organization doesn't even deserve the blame in that case. People in that field usually know what they can measure and are careful how they word their findings. I'm not a statistician but what those who are ignorant of statistics make out of these polls is an entirely different story. Sometimes this ignorance leads to irresponsible headlines in a desperate search for attention/clicks.

It is irrelevant to reality.