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dsc

(52,166 posts)
Thu Jan 2, 2020, 02:05 PM Jan 2020

There has been a great deal of talk about changing how we run our primaries

at least in the early part. Given that the most diverse set of candidates in history has been whittled down to a fairly non diverse set, the talk is back again. So let's take a look at the two drop outs that were the most diverse, Harris and Castro. Harris made every debate stage, including the debate that was in the immediate aftermath of her withdrawal. She had three major problems. 1) She was polling poorly in the early states, including SC. 2) Her fundraising numbers were poor. 3) Her CA numbers were poor. CA was moved up to Super Tuesday which, in theory, should help her. Instead, it made her window to show growth smaller which is why she had to get out. Appearing on CA ballot and coming in 4th would have been devastating to her politically.

Castro stopped making debates. He might have been helped by keeping debates more open but it is hard to see a way that he could be in and keep the likes of Williamson out. His numbers were low, he didn't show any growth in early states.

Honestly, it is awful that Harris and Castro didn't last (more so Harris than Castro in my opinion) but other than getting rid of Iowa as a starting point, which I think should happen, I don't see what can be done. I will say that we should be seeing more early state polls than we currently are. But we couldn't have 24 candidates on the stage. An undercard, over card system would have its own problems and likely the under card candidates would have remained low performing.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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