This is good news for Joe Biden!



As for Bloomberg, I would not be surprised if he never got a single delegate in the primaries. Perhaps a billionaire can run and win on the Republican side, but things on the Democratic side are a bit different.

Last edited Mon Jan 6, 2020, 03:42 PM - Edit history (1)

First, you are welcome. The polls are what the polls are.



Seems that it will be a 3 person race for a while, with Sanders and Warren chasing Biden.

And here is something that a friend raise, which I think is an interesting point. In a 3 way race like this, Sanders and Warren are splitting the progressive vote in the primaries. Sanders with his fund raising and highly committed supporters will not be dropping out.

And this is the interesting part... and Warren simply has to stay in the race in case Sanders has a serious health issue that removes him from it. Progressives need an insurance policy against that possibility.

That means the progressive vote stays split for the foreseeable future. I believe if a candidate drops out before the convention, their pledged delegates are freed up to vote as they choose. That might happen if Biden and Sanders are close, with Warren withdrawing.

(Actually, I believe any pledged delegate can theoretically vote how they choose in any case, hence campaigns run slates of reliable delegate candidates in the primaries to minimize that possibility. Correct me if I have that wrong.)

I try to stay away from polls but you sucked me in with Biden leading. This IS at least an aggregate, though, so I don't feel too bad for indulging.

I try to stay in touch with reality about changes in polling.

I have a rooting interest, but not my head in the sand.

though. It occurred to me that the whiteness of those electorates skews the numbers lower for Biden because his large support among the nation's AA and LatinX is not represented. Yes, Biden's the most popular candidate with whites too, but only barely.

So that creates an artificial suggestion of drawing the second-tier candidates "up" to first tier because they have little support to lose from non-white demographics who barely exist in those states.

Nothing new, of course. Just thinking it over.

The Economist doesn't even consider Morning Consult. More inexplicable oversights like these and their Intelligence Unit will be at 11s too: Chapter 11!