Iowa Matters Less Than Ever in 2020

With so much ground to cover, no single state has enjoyed a massive influx of new attention. Different candidates have prioritized different states. South Carolina is understood to be increasingly pivotal, but only the African American candidates (and self-help author Marianne Williamson) visited it for more than 20 days in 2019, in an ultimately futile attempt to siphon off Biden’s support. The top white candidates, not wanting to slight the African American vote, haven’t ignored South Carolina—Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren have each gone more than 10 days. But Biden’s stubborn lead there has probably dissuaded his rivals from investing in the state heavily.

Critics of Iowa and New Hampshire often say that more populous states like California should play a larger role in the process. Well, guess what: Buttigieg held 65 campaign events in the state in 2019. As California is a top source of Democratic campaign cash, 42 of those events were fundraisers (though only one in a wine cave). Biden has showed up the second-most, with 39 appearances, 27 of them fundraisers. Sanders has also bet big on California, holding the most nonfundraising events at 33, and fielding the most campaign staffers in the state. (Bryan Anderson of the Sacramento Bee tracks candidate activity in California by appearances rather than days because, he says, “It's become increasingly rare for a candidate to spend an entire day in the state” as “candidates often come to California for a few hours before going to another state like Nevada or Iowa.”)

It’s true that Iowa remains the most frequently visited state, even if it’s being visited less. And there’s a serious problem that’s raised many Iowa critics: that the state’s nearly all-white electorate is insufficiently diverse. The chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, Gilberto Hinojosa, blamed Castro’s demise on #IowaSoWhite, telling POLITICO, “How you fare in Iowa and New Hampshire sets the tone for how your campaign continues, and when you have these two states that in no way represent the diversity of the Democratic Party, it makes it very difficult for minority candidates to get momentum.”

Perhaps the first state in the presidential nominating process should look more like America. But Hinojosa’s critique ignores the impact of the DNC’s new polling criteria to earn a spot on the debate stage. Candidates do not necessarily have to perform well in Iowa and New Hampshire. A modicum of support in South Carolina, which has a majority-black Democratic electorate, or in Nevada, which has a significant Latino population, scores you an invite.



https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/09/iowa-caucus-democrats-2020-096337